2027 NFL MVP Odds: Early Favorites and My Top Picks: Hop on Herbert
Written by: Danny Burke
Last Update: Sat Feb 14, 2026, 1:24 pm ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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It's never too early to dissect value in the NFL MVP market, right? That's exactly what we're doing here. Sportsbooks have already posted 2027 NFL MVP odds, so I'll break down the early favorites and highlight the top candidates worth considering for next season's award.
For additional information on betting NFL futures, take a look at our 2027 Super Bowl Odds article, along with our NFL Betting Guide.
You can also browse our recommendations for the best online sportsbooks available in the U.S.
2027 NFL MVP Odds
- Josh Allen (+600)
- Lamar Jackson (+750)
- Drake Maye (+850)
- Joe Burrow (+1000)
- Justin Herbert (+1100)
- Patrick Mahomes (+1100)
- Dak Prescott (+1300)
- Matthew Stafford (+1400)
- Jordan Love (+1500)
- Trevor Lawrence (+1500)
- Caleb Williams (+1800)
- Brock Purdy (+2000)
- Jayden Daniels (+2000)
- Sam Darnold (+2700)
- Jalen Hurts (+3500)
- Bo Nix (+3500)
- Jared Goff (+4000)
- Baker Mayfield (+4500)
Top Tier Contenders
Justin Herbert (+1100)
Among the favorites ranging from +600 on Josh Allen to +1100 on Patrick Mahomes, the name that stands out to me is Justin Herbert at +1100 odds.
If you read my 2027 Super Bowl odds article, I dive deeper into why I'm high on the Chargers next season. The crux of it: adding a creative playcaller in Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator, an offense still loaded with weapons and a much healthier offensive line expected to provide better protection.
All of those factors elevate the Chargers as a team – and directly boost Herbert's ceiling and likelihood of being in serious MVP contention.
I'm not interested in laying sub +1000 on a player before the season even kicks off. The Chiefs feel like they're in a bit of a transitional phase compared to previous years, which gives me pause with Mahomes. As for Joe Burrow, he's still tied to a defense that's been a liability and a head coach in Zac Taylor who is likely entering his final season with the team barring a deep postseason run. Add in the injury concerns, and it's difficult to justify backing him at that number.
Among the favorites, it's Herbert or bust for me.
Mid-Tier Value Options
Brock Purdy (+2000)
In the range of Dak Prescott at +1300 to Sam Darnold at +2700, Brock Purdy at +2000 is intriguing.
As a Bears fan, I'd love to say Caleb Williams at +1800 is a great bet, but everybody and their grandmother appears to be backing him, which usually doesn't end well. I do believe Caleb takes a major step forward in his third year and second under Ben Johnson's system, but I'm not enamored with his MVP chances at this point.
Purdy, on the other hand, is fascinating – as are the 49ers as a whole and their Super Bowl outlook for 2027. San Francisco was ravaged by injuries last season, but during their brief stretches of health, they were prolific offensively.
Purdy himself suffered two injuries. The first came after a Week 1 win at Seattle, and the second following a Week 4 loss at Jacksonville. That second injury sidelined him until Week 11.
From Week 11 through Week 17, excluding the fluky nature of Week 18, Purdy ranked first in EPA per play and second in both success rate and completion percentage over expected (CPOE). He accomplished that following a significant injury and with limited offensive weapons.
That speaks not only to Purdy's continued development, but also to the genius offensive system orchestrated by Kyle Shanahan.
There's little doubt the 49ers will be competitive again. If Purdy and his skill position players stay healthy, he should find himself in the midst of the MVP conversation next season.
Longshot MVP Candidates
Baker Mayfield (+4500) and Cam Ward (+6500)
It's much more difficult to find value in a longshot for the NFL MVP Award. More often than not, this is a quarterback award, and it's rare to see an unsuspecting name come out of nowhere and win it. A player like Drake Maye being in contention was a bit unprecedented, but as we know, he ultimately fell short.
So I don't see much value across the rest of the player pool. If I had to circle a couple names just for the sake of doing so, I'd take a look at Baker Mayfield (+4500) or Cam Ward (+6500).
I was very much anti-Tampa Bay this past season. I expected regression, and early on it was clear that was coming as they were winning games in miraculous fashion by razor-thin margins. That eventually caught up to them, as they missed the postseason despite playing in the worst division in football.
That disappointing finish, however, could provide plenty of fuel going forward for an organization still loaded with offensive talent in a wide-open division. Mayfield's name was floated in early MVP discussions last year. Perhaps in 2027 he can keep himself in the mix a bit longer.
As for Cam Ward, I understand how bold that may sound. But look at what just happened with Drake Maye. In his second season, he got a competent coach, benefited from a last-place schedule, and finished second in MVP voting.
Cam Ward and the Titans will have a last-place schedule and a competent offensive coordinator in Brian Daboll taking over play-calling duties. Tennessee showed flashes of competitiveness toward the end of the season, and there were clear signs of growth from the 2025 No. 1 overall pick. The Titans also fielded a respectable defense, and with Robert Saleh now leading the charge, that unit could take another step forward.
Nashville may quietly feature one of the sneakier teams heading into 2027. If that happens, it could create legitimate buzz around Ward and his ability to contend as a true longshot in the MVP race.
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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