MLB Futures Bets Explained: Types, Strategies, and More
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Last Updated: Sat Mar 08, 2025, 01:22 AM
Read Time: 15 minutes
Baseball, America’s pastime, offers numerous intriguing futures betting opportunities. MLB futures betting allows fans and bettors to wager on outcomes determined weeks or months down the road.
This approach to baseball betting requires patience, research, and strategic thinking. But for those who master its intricacies, it can yield substantial returns.
If you bet on MLB games daily, you experience immediate gratification if your bets win. Betting on baseball futures markets invites bettors to take a longer view. The predictions made with these betting picks test both baseball knowledge and betting acumen.
The structure of the MLB season is comparable to the NBA and NHL in that its regular season takes place over several months, and the postseason plays out across four rounds.
Like the NBA, 30 teams are spread across six divisions, and the American League and National League are the MLB equivalent of the two conferences in the NFL, NBA, and NHL.
Where MLB differs most from the other major North American sports leagues is its 162-game regular season. Also, while baseball is a team sport, it is based around hitter and pitcher matchups. Additionally, weather, park factors, and statistical splits heavily factor. These nuances heighten the potential for frequent twists and add a unique layer to games and bets.
The timeframe of MLB futures bets also means your interest remains high regardless of day-to-day results because your futures tickets may hold value throughout the season.
Yes, frustration may still occur if your chosen team loses a game to a division rival in June or if your MVP pick follows an amazing April with a mediocre May that drops him behind other contenders. But it does mean that you should not sweat it too much, because those results and performances may be irrelevant come September and October.
Bet on MLB Futures Odds in 2025 at the Best Online Sportsbooks
What Are MLB Futures Bets?
This guide aims to navigate the exciting world of MLB futures betting. It offers insights into market types, strategic approaches, and best practices for finding value in baseball’s long game.
MLB futures bets are wagers placed on outcomes that will be determined at some point in the future, rather than the results of a single game.
These bets typically involve predicting events that will unfold over the MLB season or postseason. The time horizon for futures bets varies. Some settle after the regular season ends, while others remain active until the World Series ends.
This timeline distinguishes futures betting from standard daily game betting, where results are known within hours of placing a wager.
The pricing structure of futures markets reflects their long-term nature. Odds are presented in American format (such as +800 or -150), with most futures offering plus-money payouts due to the difficulty in predicting distant outcomes accurately.
These odds are constantly in flux. Line movement occurs due to team performance, player injuries, trades, and betting patterns.
Early futures markets may open months before the season begins, with sportsbooks posting initial odds shortly after the previous World Series concludes. These opening lines present opportunities for bettors who can identify value before the consensus market view takes shape.
The nature of futures bets represents a challenge, but patient and knowledgeable bettors can reap rewards with a sound strategy and the proverbial chips falling their way.
Types of MLB Futures Bets
MLB futures betting offers a diverse array of markets that extend far beyond simply picking the next World Series champion. These markets span the entire spectrum of baseball outcomes, from team achievements to individual player accomplishments, providing bettors with numerous opportunities to profit.
Team-focused bettors might gravitate toward season win totals and division races. Those with player evaluation skills could find edges in award markets and statistical leader futures like home run leader odds. Understanding the distinct mechanics of each market type—how odds are structured, when markets resolve, and what factors influence outcomes—forms the foundation for successful MLB futures betting.
The following sections examine the major categories of MLB futures bets, highlighting the key considerations for each market type.
Team-Based MLB Futures Bets
Regular Season Win Totals
Baseball betting sites such as BetOnline and Bovada set a projected number of wins for each team, and bettors wager on whether the actual win total will exceed (over) or fall short of (under) that number.
Betting on MLB win totals requires bettors to evaluate a team’s overall strength, schedule difficulty, depth, and injury history. Win totals typically open before spring training and remain available until several weeks into the season. The juice (vigorish) on these markets often ranges from -110 to -120 on each side. That makes them more bettor-friendly than some other futures options.
Division, League, and World Series Winner Bets
Division winner bets require a team to finish with the best regular season record in their division. League pennant bets ask which team will win the American League Championship Series and the National League Championship Series. Those two series determine who plays in the World Series.
World Series futures, the most popular team-based market, pay off only if your selected team wins it all. These World Series betting markets may offer high payouts even for favorites such as the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, and Atlanta Braves.
Market prices reflect both team quality and perceived path difficulty, with teams in stronger divisions typically offered at longer odds than equally talented teams in weaker divisions.
Odds to Make the MLB Playoffs
This is a market that has grown in popularity as MLB has expanded its postseason format. Currently, 40% of the league’s teams can now reach the playoffs.
These markets ask bettors to predict whether a team will reach the playoffs in any capacity—either by winning their division or securing a wild card berth.
Player-Based MLB Futures Bets
Award Futures
The most popular MLB award markets center on Most Valuable Player odds (MVP) and Cy Young Award odds in each league. These markets open with dozens of candidates listed at various odds, from favorites to extreme longshots. Award futures require bettors to predict not just player performance but also how that performance will be evaluated by voters.
Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, and Comeback Player of the Year futures are also available, each with their own evaluation criteria and voting patterns.
Statistical Leader Futures
These markets include bets on which players will lead their league or all of MLB in specific statistical categories such as home runs, batting average, strikeouts, wins, or ERA.
These markets benefit bettors with strong analytical skills who can project player performance using advanced statistical methods.
Player Performance Props
These prop bets, which primarily consist of over/under bets, might include a player’s total home runs, stolen bases, pitching wins, or strikeouts for the season.
For player performance props, bettors must assess a player’s skill level, health outlook, team context, and playing time projections.
Specialized Futures Markets
First Manager Fired/To Leave Position represents a niche market that focuses on coaching changes rather than on-field performance.
While less common than team and player futures, these markets can offer substantial value for bettors who follow the internal politics of MLB franchises closely. The market typically includes all 30 MLB managers with odds reflecting both expected team performance and job security.
Other options occasionally appear for marquee events, statistical oddities, or record pursuits. These might include whether any player will hit for the cycle in the All-Star Game, if a perfect game will be thrown during the season, or if any team will establish a new winning streak record.
For example, when Aaron Judge was on his way to setting a new single-season American League record for home runs in the 2022 season, many of the best online sportsbooks had odds on how many homers he would hit or if he would break the record.
While these markets often feature long odds and are sometimes viewed as recreational rather than serious betting opportunities, they can provide entertainment value and occasional windfalls when rare events occur.
Strategies for MLB Futures Betting
Timing Your Bets
The timing of futures bets significantly impacts potential value.
Opening lines, released shortly after the previous season concludes, often reflect recency bias and incomplete information about team construction. Patient bettors can capitalize on major free agent signings, trades, or injury news that shifts team projections.
Conversely, early season performance often creates overreactions. This provides opportunities to buy low on underperforming quality teams or sell high on overperforming teams with unsustainable records.
In-season futures betting offers different strategic considerations than preseason wagering. As the season progresses, statistical samples become more reliable, team identities solidify, and playoff races take shape. This rewards bettors who can identify teams whose underlying metrics suggest future performance improvements or declines that the betting market has not fully incorporated.
The MLB trade deadline represents another pivotal timing opportunity, as significant player movement can dramatically alter team projections. Being prepared to act quickly when news breaks can secure favorable odds before markets adjust fully to new information.
Midseason futures opportunities often emerge when injuries to key players cause markets to overreact. When star players suffer injuries with clear recovery timelines that will allow them to return for important late-season or playoff action, their teams’ futures odds frequently lengthen more than objectively warranted. This creates potential value, particularly for division, pennant, and World Series futures.
Evaluating Starting Pitching
Starting pitching analysis forms the foundation of effective MLB futures evaluation.
Pitching staffs with quality and depth typically sustain success across a 162-game season, making them good candidates for over bets on win totals and playoff qualification.
When evaluating rotations, look beyond traditional statistics like ERA and wins. Examine underlying metrics such as Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), strikeout rates, walk rates, and home run suppression. These predictive indicators often signal future performance changes before they manifest in traditional statistics or team records.
Teams with pitching staffs that have demonstrated durability or have quality depth to withstand injuries typically outperform their futures projections. However, teams relying heavily on pitchers with injury histories or young arms approaching innings limits often decline as the season progresses.
The emergence of advanced pitcher development techniques has created a new dynamic in futures markets. Organizations with strong track records of improving pitcher performance through mechanical adjustments, pitch design, or strategic pitch mix changes can outperform preseason projections when these improvements materialize.
Bettors who study organizational philosophies, coaching staffs, and development patterns can identify teams poised to exceed market expectations through pitching development. This approach is particularly valuable for team win totals and division winner futures involving teams with young, developing pitching staffs.
Analyzing Offensive Production
Offensive analysis for futures betting should focus on sustainability metrics rather than raw output. Teams whose offensive success relies heavily on batting average tend to experience more variance than those built around power and plate discipline.
When evaluating offenses for futures bets, examine underlying metrics like hard-hit rates, barrel percentages, chase rates, and expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA).
These indicators often predict future performance shifts before they appear in conventional statistics. This provides an edge in futures markets that primarily reflect past results.
Also, lineup depth and positional flexibility have become increasingly valuable in the modern game.
Teams with quality options throughout their lineup and versatile rosters that can withstand injuries typically outperform futures projections. Teams that rely heavily on a few star performers but have weak overall depth represent potential under opportunities, as injuries to key players can derail their seasons.
Ballpark factors significantly impact offensive production and should be carefully considered when evaluating MLB futures.
Teams who play at home in extreme hitter’s environments may have inflated offensive statistics that don’t translate to true team quality. For example, the Colorado Rockies play at Coors Field, which is a very hitter-friendly park, and many of their hitters have strong home splits. However, they have lost 94, 103, and 101 games in the last three seasons (entering the 2025 MLB season).
Similarly, teams in pitcher-friendly environments might have better underlying offensive skills than their raw numbers suggest. Evaluate and adjust for these environmental factors, particularly for teams that have undergone significant roster changes.
Understanding Market Dynamics
Public perception significantly influences MLB futures markets, creating inefficiencies smart bettors can exploit. Popular, successful franchises like the Yankees, Dodgers, Braves, and Astros typically receive disproportionate betting action. That drives their futures odds lower than objective projections would suggest.
Conversely, smaller market teams (such as the Milwaukee Brewers) or those with limited historical success (such as the Seattle Mariners, the only team to never reach the World Series) often offer value as sportsbooks lengthen their odds to attract balanced action.
This dynamic is particularly pronounced in World Series and pennant markets. Casual bettors gravitate toward familiar, popular teams regardless of their actual championship prospects.
Sharp money movements provide valuable signals. When professional bettors identify value in futures markets, their substantial wagers can cause significant line movements despite limited public interest.
Tracking these movements, particularly in less popular markets like regular season win totals or division winners, can reveal professional opinions that incorporate sophisticated analysis. While following sharp money isn’t a standalone strategy, it provides a valuable data point when combined with independent analysis. Sports betting tools and resources track these movements, making them accessible to bettors who know where to look.
Division winner odds should theoretically align with playoff qualification odds, pennant odds, and World Series odds in a perfectly efficient market. When discrepancies appear between these related markets, bettors can construct positions that guarantee profit or reduce risk.
Do a team’s division winner odds imply a higher championship probability than their direct World Series odds suggest? A carefully structured bet across both markets can create value regardless of outcome. These opportunities require mathematical precision but can be substantial when identified correctly.
Bankroll Management and Portfolio Approach
Proper Bet Sizing for Futures
Proper bankroll management is essential for futures betting success, where results may not be known for months. Because futures play out over extended periods, they should generally represent a smaller percentage of your bankroll than individual game bets.
A common approach is to allocate 20-30% of your total baseball betting bankroll to futures markets. Individual futures bets can be sized at 0.5-2% of your total bankroll. This should depend on your confidence level, the odds offered, and how many bets you have made. This way, you have a hefty percentage left for your daily picks for MLB games.
The extended timeframe of futures betting necessitates careful consideration of the risks and benefits involved with each bet and your overall strategy. For serious bettors, quality over quantity should be the guiding principle. Focus on spots where value and probability line up well. Also, always keep an eye on opportunities for additional bets based on events that take place during the season.
Creating a Complementary Portfolio
Diversification across different types of futures markets can create natural hedges within your portfolio.
For example, if you believe strongly in a particular team’s prospects, consider multiple markets and not just a single World Series futures bet. This approach allows you to capitalize on team success at different stages while providing multiple paths to profitability.
Similarly, if you place bets on individual player awards, consider complementary statistical leader futures that align with the performance needed to win those awards. For example, if you bet on new Arizona Diamondbacks ace Corbin Burnes to win the NL Cy Young Award this season, you may bet on his strikeout leader odds as well.
Managing Existing Positions
Futures positions should be monitored regularly while still active. Bettors should be open to making additional bets if the situation calls for it.
This monitoring process should incorporate updated projections, injury developments, and changes in team composition through trades or call-ups.
Hedging bets becomes increasingly relevant as bets move closer to resolution. Is your division winner pick out front in September but involved in a tight race? If so, placing a bet on their closest competition can ensure that you profit no matter how the race ends.
Conclusion
MLB futures betting represents a complex but potentially rewarding approach to baseball wagering that rewards patient, analytical bettors. The markets described in this guide offer diverse opportunities to apply baseball knowledge in pursuit of long-term profits.
The evolving landscape of MLB itself continues to create new futures betting opportunities. Rule changes, analytical advances, and shifting team-building philosophies constantly reshape how baseball is played and evaluated. Successful futures bettors stay attuned to these developments, recognizing how they might impact various futures markets before consensus views form.
The patience required for futures betting stands somewhat at odds with America’s increasingly instant-gratification betting culture. However, this patience also creates opportunity, as markets dominated by recreational bettors often misprice longer-term outcomes.
Savvy baseball bettors don’t need to win every bet to achieve profitability. Instead, finding sufficient edges may yield long-term success with betting on what the stars of today will do tomorrow.
Learn More About Sports Betting
This guide covers a lot of information that will serve sports betting beginners well, but it is just one of many guides we have for both new and experienced bettors.
Whether you want to learn about over/under bets, prop bets, and other types of bets, sportsbook bonuses, notable sports betting terms and phrases, or sports betting strategies such as hedging and middling bets, we have you covered.
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