Which Baseball Stats & Metrics Are Important for MLB Betting in 2025?
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Published: Tue Apr 22, 2025, 09:13 AM
Read Time: 14 minutes
Baseball betting offers a unique opportunity for sports bettors due to the game’s statistical nature. While it is a team sport, individual matchups, moments, and performances take on an importance that sets baseball apart from other sports, and stats and metrics play a key role in how those nuances are accounted for during a game and over the course of a season.
Current and historical baseball stats provide teams with a wealth of information to make informed decisions, and the same applies for bettors. And while the sheer volume of available data might seem overwhelming at first, understanding which metrics matter most can significantly improve your betting success.
This guide aims to introduce you to the most valuable statistics and metrics for baseball betting without getting bogged down in complex mathematical formulas or advanced terminology.
Baseball betting is not just about picking winners and losers. It encompasses various bet types including moneylines, run lines, totals, player props, and more. The right statistics can provide insights into different aspects of the game and help you identify value in betting markets that others might miss.
Whether you are completely new to betting on MLB odds or a more experienced bettor looking to refine your approach, this guide will equip you with the knowledge of which stats truly matter when placing your baseball bets.
Key Baseball Stats and Metrics for MLB Betting in 2025
Traditional Baseball Batting Stats
Batting Average (BA)
Batting average remains one of baseball’s most recognized statistics, measuring the percentage of at-bats that result in hits.
While it provides a quick snapshot of a player’s hitting ability, bettors must understand its limitations. Those limitations contribute to why more advanced and nuanced numbers have taken on more relevance in recent years and minimized the importance of someone’s overall batting average for the season.
A player with a .300 batting average gets a hit 30% of the time, which seems impressive. However, this statistic does not account for walks or the quality of hits. When betting on player performance props or team totals, batting average can be useful but should be considered alongside other metrics for a more complete picture.
On-Base Percentage (OBP)
On-base percentage includes hits, walks, and hit-by-pitches. It offers a more comprehensive view of how often a player reaches base.
This metric is particularly valuable when betting on game totals (over/under bets) because teams with high OBP typically create more scoring opportunities. When evaluating a team’s offensive potential, look for lineups featuring multiple players with OBP above .350, as these teams tend to sustain rallies and score more consistently.
For player prop bets related to runs scored, OBP provides more insight than batting average alone.
Slugging Percentage (SLG)
Slugging percentage measures the total bases a player achieves per at-bat, giving more weight to extra-base hits.
A player who hits mostly singles will have a lower slugging percentage than someone who frequently hits doubles, triples, and home runs. This metric is especially relevant when betting on team totals and run lines, as teams with high slugging percentages tend to score runs in bunches.
When considering over/under bets, pay attention to matchups between high-slugging teams and pitchers who allow a high percentage of extra-base hits.
On-Base Plus Slugging (OPS)
OPS combines on-base percentage and slugging percentage to provide a more complete picture of a player’s offensive value. This statistic balances the ability to reach base with the ability to hit for power.
When betting on team totals or making run line bets, (which are baseball point spread bets) OPS can help identify teams that might be undervalued by the betting market.
Teams with multiple players sporting an OPS above .800 typically have strong offenses worth considering for over bets. Similarly, when players with high OPS face struggling pitchers, they present valuable opportunities for hitting props.
OPS is also a very valuable stat for MLB futures bets. If you look at historical baseball stats, you will see that MLB MVP contenders and winners typically sit at or near the top of the league in this category.
Advanced Baseball Batting Metrics
Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA)
Weighted On-Base Average improves upon OPS by assigning appropriate values to each offensive event.
Unlike OPS, which simply adds OBP and SLG together, wOBA weights each outcome (singles, doubles, walks, etc.) based on their actual contribution to scoring runs. This makes wOBA one of the most accurate reflections of offensive performance available.
When betting on team totals or making MLB prop bets, compare players’ or teams’ wOBA to the league average (typically around .320). Significant deviations above this number indicate strong offensive performers who might be undervalued in the betting markets.
Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+)
wRC+ takes wOBA a step further by adjusting for park effects and expressing a player’s offensive value relative to league average.
A wRC+ of 100 is exactly league average, while 120 means a player is 20% better than average. This adjustment is particularly valuable for baseball betting because it accounts for how different ballparks affect offensive production.
When betting on games at extreme pitcher or hitter parks, wRC+ helps identify players whose raw statistics might be inflated or deflated by their home environment. This metric excels for player prop bets and evaluating offenses in different ballparks.
Hard Hit Percentage
Hard Hit Percentage measures how often a batter makes solid contact, typically defined as balls hit with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher.
This metric serves as a leading indicator of future performance. Players consistently hitting the ball hard will eventually see results, even if they have been experiencing bad luck.
For betting purposes, hitters with high hard-hit rates but modest traditional statistics may be undervalued in the prop betting markets. Conversely, players with good counting stats but low hard-hit rates might be due for regression. That makes those players candidates for “under” bets on their hitting props.
Traditional Baseball Pitching Statistics
Earned Run Average (ERA)
ERA remains the most common baseball stat for evaluating pitchers. ERA measures the average number of earned runs allowed per nine innings pitched.
While useful for quick assessments, ERA can be misleading due to factors outside a pitcher’s control like defense and luck, much like batting average only paints part of the picture for a hitter.
For betting purposes, compare a pitcher’s current ERA to their career norms and look for significant deviations that might indicate regression. ERA is most valuable for moneyline bets and total bets but should be supplemented with more predictive metrics for more accurate assessments of pitcher quality.
WHIP (Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched)
WHIP measures how many baserunners a pitcher allows per inning. This statistic correlates strongly with run prevention and offers insight into a pitcher’s control and ability to limit contact.
Pitchers with WHIPs below 1.20 generally prevent runs effectively, while those above 1.40 tend to struggle.
When betting on game totals, pitching matchups featuring starters with low WHIPs often present good under opportunities. WHIP also helps identify pitchers who might be overperforming or underperforming their ERA, making it useful for spotting potential betting value.
If you bet on Cy Young Award odds, WHIP can be one of the stats you analyze to know who might win. Cy Young contenders typically have a WHIP close to or under 1.00.
Strikeout Rate (K%) and Walk Rate (BB%)
A pitcher’s strikeout and walk rates provide clearer insights into their skill than ERA or wins. Strikeouts represent batters a pitcher can retire without depending on defense, while walk rate demonstrates control.
Pitchers with K-BB% (the difference between these rates) above 15% typically excel regardless of their current ERA. These metrics prove particularly valuable for moneyline bets and player props.
When handicapping pitching matchups for your daily MLB picks, prioritize pitchers with high strikeout rates against teams that strike out frequently, especially for strikeout prop bets and team total unders.
Advanced Pitching Metrics
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)
FIP estimates what a pitcher’s ERA should be based solely on outcomes they directly control: strikeouts, walks, hit batters, and home runs.
By removing the influence of defense and luck on batted balls, FIP provides a more accurate measure of pitcher skill than ERA. When betting, pitchers with ERAs significantly higher than their FIP may be experiencing bad luck and could be undervalued in upcoming starts.
Conversely, pitchers with ERAs much lower than their FIP might be overvalued. This makes FIP especially useful for moneyline bets and pitcher performance props.
Expected ERA (xERA)
xERA evaluates pitcher performance based on the quality of contact allowed rather than the actual outcomes.
Using metrics like exit velocity and launch angle, xERA estimates what a pitcher’s ERA should be based on batted ball data. This statistic helps identify pitchers who are truly limiting hard contact versus those benefiting from lucky outcomes.
For betting purposes, pitchers with significant gaps between their actual ERA and xERA represent potential value opportunities. When a pitcher’s ERA is much lower than their xERA, consider betting against them. When it is much higher, they might be due for positive regression.
Ground Ball Rate and Fly Ball Rate
These metrics measure the types of contact a pitcher typically allows. Ground ball pitchers (50%+ ground ball rate) generally surrender fewer home runs and extra-base hits. Fly ball pitchers may allow more hard contact but can also generate easy outs.
When betting, match pitcher tendencies against opposing team strengths. Bet against ground ball pitchers when facing teams with speed and high contact rates. Also bet against fly ball pitchers when facing power-hitting teams in smaller ballparks. These rates are particularly useful for team total bets and run lines.
Use These Baseball Stats and Metrics to Bet on MLB Odds at Top Online Sportsbooks
Whether you are making basic moneyline, run line, and over/under bets on MLB games, placing wagers on prop markets, or investing in futures bets on World Series odds, pennant winner odds, or MLB division winner odds, the baseball stats, metrics, and additional factors discussed in this guide can play a vital role in the outcome of your bets.
The best MLB betting sites give bettors the opportunity to bet on a variety of markets and may even offer special sportsbook bonuses throughout the season or provide perks like reduced juice for baseball odds.
All of these sites are great options for betting on baseball in 2025, and we recommend having accounts at multiple sites to make the most of line movement and line shopping.
If you are unfamiliar with any of these sites, check out our sportsbook reviews to learn more about betting options, bonuses, payment options, and more.
Team-Level Baseball Stats
Run Differential
Run differential measures the difference between runs scored and runs allowed, providing a more accurate picture of team quality than win-loss record alone.
Teams with positive run differentials that underperform their expected record often represent value in future games. Conversely, teams with negative run differentials that have better records than expected might be overvalued.
This metric proves most useful for moneyline bets, helping identify teams whose current market prices don’t align with their true strength. Teams outperforming their run differential by several wins are prime candidates for betting against in future games.
Home/Road Splits
Many teams perform differently at home versus on the road due to factors like ballpark dimensions, familiarity, and travel fatigue.
Some teams with extreme home parks (like Colorado’s Coors Field) show particularly pronounced splits. When betting, analyze both overall performance and specific splits to identify situations where market prices haven’t fully accounted for location effects. Home/road splits apply to virtually all bet types, from moneylines to player props.
Pay special attention to pitchers whose home/road splits show dramatic differences. These pitchers may be overvalued or undervalued depending on where they are pitching.
Bullpen ERA and Reliability
The effectiveness of a team’s relief pitching often determines the outcome of close games. Teams with deep, reliable bullpens typically outperform expectations in the late innings.
When considering run lines or betting on live odds, evaluate bullpen freshness and performance alongside starting pitching. Look at bullpen ERA, WHIP, and innings pitched over the past week to identify potentially overworked relief corps.
Teams with rested, effective bullpens hold particular value for run line bets (betting a team to win by more than one run). On the other hand, teams with struggling relievers present opportunities for live betting after starter departures.
Contextual Factors to Consider for Baseball Betting
Ballpark Factors
Different MLB stadiums significantly impact run scoring due to dimensions, altitude, weather patterns, and other characteristics. Parks like Coors Field (Colorado) and Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati) favor hitters. Oracle Park (San Francisco) and Petco Park (San Diego) typically favor pitchers.
When betting totals, adjust expectations based on location. A matchup expected to produce 8 runs in a neutral park might reasonably be projected for 9+ runs in a hitter’s park or 7- runs in a pitcher’s park. Ballpark factors affect all types of bets but are especially crucial for game totals and player props.
Weather Conditions
Weather significantly impacts baseball outcomes, particularly wind direction and temperature. Wind blowing out increases home run probability and total runs. Wind blowing in has the opposite effect. Higher temperatures also generally favor hitters as the ball travels farther in warm air.
Before placing your baseball bets, always check weather forecasts, especially wind conditions and temperature. Games with winds exceeding 10 mph blowing out often present value on over bets, while strong winds blowing in favor under bets. Temperature effects become most pronounced at extremes—games over 90°F tend to see more runs than those below 50°F.
Umpire Tendencies
Home plate umpires influence game outcomes through their strike zone interpretations.
Some umpires consistently call wider or narrower strike zones, significantly affecting run scoring and pitcher performance. Umpires with larger strike zones generally benefit pitchers and the under, while those with smaller zones favor hitters and the over.
Before betting, research who will be behind the plate and their historical impact on run scoring. This information proves particularly valuable for total bets and pitcher strikeout props. An umpire’s zone can make the difference between hitting or missing a projection.
Conclusion
Baseball’s statistical richness makes it one of the most rewarding sports for analytical bettors. By understanding and applying the metrics covered in this guide, you can develop a significant edge in your baseball betting endeavors.
Keep in mind that no single statistic tells the complete story. The most successful bettors combine multiple metrics with contextual factors to identify value opportunities. Start by incorporating a few key baseball stats into your handicapping process, then gradually expand your analytical approach as you become more comfortable with the numbers.
The evolution of baseball analytics continues to provide new insights and metrics each season. While this guide focuses on the most established and useful stats for MLB betting purposes, remain open to emerging metrics that might offer additional edges.
Most importantly, maintain detailed records of your baseball bets, noting which stats and factors influenced each decision. This practice will help you refine your approach over time, identifying which metrics prove most valuable for different bet types and situations.
By consistent applying these statistical principles, you will be well-positioned to make more profitable baseball betting decisions.
Learn More About Sports Betting
This guide covers a lot of information that will serve sports betting beginners well, but it is just one of many guides we have for both new and experienced bettors.
Whether you want to learn about over/under bets, prop bets, and other types of bets, sportsbook bonuses, notable sports betting terms and phrases, or sports betting strategies such as hedging and middling, we have you covered.
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