How to Pick March Madness Upsets in 2025
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Published: Tue Mar 18, 2025, 4:05 am ET
Read Time: 15 minutes
The unpredictability of the NCAA Division I basketball tournament is one of the biggest reasons why it is one of the most popular and exciting events in American sports. For fans filling out brackets or placing bets, correctly predicting these March Madness upsets can be the difference between winning and losing your pool.
Every year, underdog teams shock the basketball world by defeating higher-ranked opponents, busting March Madness brackets nationwide. The moments when knock off basketball powerhouses and become overnight sensations are what make the men's and women's NCAA tournaments so exciting.
Whether you are competing in March Madness bracket challenges or placing wagers on individual games or March Madness futures odds, having a strategy for picking upsets gives you an edge.
While no one can predict every upset win, understanding the patterns and factors that lead to upsets can significantly improve your chances of success with your bets and brackets. Fortunately, many upsets follow certain trends that can be identified with some research.
This guide, which covers men's March Madness upsets, breaks down everything you need to know about March Madness upsets. What are they? How often do they happen? Which seeds are most vulnerable to upsets? Most importantly, how can you spot upsets before they happen?
As we answer these questions and more, we will focus on practical, easy-to-understand strategies that both beginners and experienced fans can use to make smarter picks when March Madness arrives.
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What Are March Madness Upsets?
March Madness upsets occur when a lower-seeded team defeats a higher-seeded opponent in the NCAA tournament.
Currently, the March Madness seeding system ranks the 68 participating teams from 1 (strongest) to 16 (weakest) across four regions, with the selection committee placing what they consider the strongest teams in the highest seeds.
Technically, any game where a lower seed beats a higher seed can count as an upset. Therefore, a win for a #9 seed over a #8 seed in a first-round matchup could be considered an upset, especially if the #8 seed was a firm favorite.
However, when most people talk about "true upsets," they are usually referring to games where a significant gap exists between the teams in seeding, talent, notoriety, or tournament expectations. This usually involves a double-digit seed taking down a single-digit seed or two teams several seed lines apart meeting in the later rounds of the tournament, such as a #7 seed defeating a #2 in the second round or a #5 defeating a #1 in the Sweet Sixteen.
The most shocking March Madness upsets come when a 15 or 16 seed takes down a 2 or 1 seed, though these are quite rare. In the men's NCAA tournament, a #16 seed has defeated a #1 seed only twice, while a #15 seed has defeated a #2 seed 11 times.
Five Recent March Madness Upsets
- 2021: #15 Oral Roberts defeated #2 Ohio State in the first round (lost in the Sweet Sixteen)
- 2022: #15 Saint Peter's defeated #2 Kentucky in the first round (lost the Elite Eight)
- 2023: #15 Princeton defeated #2 Arizona in the first round (lost in the Sweet Sixteen)
- 2023: #16 Fairleigh Dickinson defeated #1 Purdue in the first round (lost in the second round)
- 2024: #14 Oakland defeated #3 Kentucky in the first round (lost in the second round)
What makes March Madness famous is the frequency of these upsets. Unlike the MLB, NBA, or NHL playoffs where the better team usually wins a series, or even the NFL single-elimination playoffs where homefield advantage often plays a significant role, the NCAA tournament's single-elimination, neutral-site format means one hot shooting night or one bad game from a star player can send a favorite packing.
Recent tournaments have featured several upsets each year, and that looks likely to continue. This makes March Madness upsets common enough that you need to pick some in your bracket each year. At the same time, they are rare enough that picking too many will bust your bracket as much as upsets might.
How Common Are March Madness Upsets?
Understanding how often upsets happen is crucial for making smart March Madness picks.
If you pick too few upsets, you won't gain an advantage over other bracket contest entrants. If you pick too many, you will likely fall behind as most favorites still win their games.
Here's a breakdown of how often lower seeds have defeated higher seeds since the men's NCAA Tournament expanded to four 16-team regions in 1985. This includes #9 vs #8 and #10 vs #7 victories, which are not the same degree of upset as results featuring a gap of at least five seed lines.
How Often Have Lower Seeds Defeated Higher Seeds in Men's March Madness?
- #9 seeds have defeated #8 seeds 51.9% of the time (81 times in 156 games)
- #10 seeds have defeated #7 seeds 38.7% of the time (60 times in 156 games)
- #11 seeds have defeated #6 seeds 39.1% of the time (61 times in 156 games)
- #12 seeds have defeated #5 seeds 35.3% of the time (55 times in 156 games)
- #13 seeds have defeated #4 seeds 21.2% of the time (33 times in 156 games)
- #14 seeds have defeated #3 seeds 14.7% of the time (23 times in 156 games)
- #15 seeds have defeated #2 seeds 7.1% of the time (11 times in 156 games)
- #16 seeds have defeated #1 seeds 1.3% of the time (2 times in 156 games)
On average, there have been 8.5 total upsets (wins by lower seeded teams with a gap of five or more seeds) per year since the tournament's expansion in 1985.
But those numbers have risen in recent years. The tournament was cancelled in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the following season did not count towards eligibility. The impact of an extra year, especially with players now both able receive compensation legally and transfer without sitting out a year, is perhaps a topic for another space, but the impact is undeniable and significant.
Fourteen upsets occurred in 2021 and 2022, ten took place in 2023, and in last year's tournament, there were nine upsets.
First-round upsets occur most often because there are more games played. In other rounds, upsets become less frequent as the truly stronger teams tend to advance.
Ultimately, a good move for March Madness bracket contests is to pick 8-10 upsets throughout your entire bracket. For betting individual games, these percentages can help you identify value even when odds and historical upset rates don't match.
Which Seeds Are Most Vulnerable to Upsets?
Not all high seeds are equally likely to lose to underdogs. Based on tournament history, some matchups produce upsets much more frequently than others.
The famous 12-over-5 upset is legendary because it happens with such regularity. Since 1985, only six editions of men's March Madness have not featured at least one #12 defeating a #5: 1988, 2000, 2007, 2015, 2018, and 2023.
As seen above, the #11 vs #6 matchup has seen the most "true" upsets, just edging out #10 over #7 results. These upsets often feature mid-major conference champions or major conference teams who had to sweat out the final few days of the March Madness bubble watch.
Teams seeded 5th through 7th are often major conference teams that finished in the middle of their conference standings. That means that they are good but not great teams that can be vulnerable against talented and determined underdogs.
Number one and two seeds rarely lose in the first round but become more vulnerable in the second round and beyond. Many #1 seeds fall in the Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight rounds when the competition level increases significantly, which can lead to weakness being exploited that weaker teams could not. Also, familiar opponents can sometimes come up in the bracket in the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight.
When making your picks for this year's March Madness bracket, consider having at least one 12-seed upset, one 11-seed upset, and possibly a 13-seed surprise in your first-round picks. For the second round, look for at least one or two 10 or 11 seeds to continue their run into the Sweet Sixteen.
Factors That Help Predict Upsets
Experience and Guard Play
Teams with experienced guards who can handle pressure, control the tempo, and create for themselves and others tend to be better equipped for upsets.
Veteran backcourts that have played together for several seasons can outperform more talented but less cohesive opponents. Look for teams where the guards have averaged at least three years of college experience.
A team's point guard is particularly important. If you bet on college football odds or NFL odds, you will know that good quarterback play often goes a long way. The point guard is like the quarterback of a basketball team, and a steady hand at that position can be a difference-maker in March.
When looking for potential March Madness upset picks, pay attention to teams with point guards who:
- Have a high assist-to-turnover ratio (2:1 or better)
- Can score consistently (averaging 12+ points per game)
- Have previous tournament experience
Three-Point Shooting
Three-point shooting is the great equalizer in college basketball. Teams that rely heavily on three-pointers and shoot them effectively are prime upset candidates. When these teams get hot, they can beat anyone in the country.
Look for underdogs that:
- Attempt a high volume of three-pointers (25+ per game)
- Connect at an above-average rate (37% or higher from three)
- Have multiple players who shoot well from distance
These teams may be inconsistent during the regular season, which may explain their lower seed if they are a team from a major conference. But that potential to get hot for a game or a stretch of games can make them very dangerous during tournament time.
The flip side is also important to evaluate. Favorites that struggle to defend the three-point line are more prone to March Madness upsets.
Defensive Strength
As the saying goes, defense wins championships. That is applicable across many sports, including college basketball. Strong defensive teams can keep games close even when their offense struggles.
Underdogs that excel at defense can frustrate higher-seeded opponents who aren't used to such resistance.
Key defensive metrics to consider:
- Points allowed per game (under 65 is excellent)
- Defensive field goal percentage (under 40% is strong)
- Turnovers forced (teams that generate 7+ steals per game can disrupt opponents)
Use college basketball betting tools and resources such as KenPom and Bart Torvik to help determine which teams you can trust on the defensive end.
Teams that play at a slower pace and limit possessions also have better upset potential because fewer possessions mean less opportunity for the talent gap to emerge over 40 minutes.
Momentum and Conference Tournament Performance
Teams entering the NCAA tournament on a hot streak often continue their strong play. Pay special attention to teams that performed well in their conference tournaments, especially those that won their conference tournament as a lower seed.
This momentum factor works both ways. Higher seeds that struggled down the stretch or lost early in their conference tournament might be ripe for an upset. Basketball is very much a confidence game, and teams playing their best basketball in March are dangerous regardless of seed.
Matching Styles and Mismatches
Some of the best March Madness upset picks come from style mismatches. For example:
- A slow, deliberate team facing an opponent that prefers to run
- A physical, rebounding team against a finesse squad that doesn't crash the boards
- A team with size advantages at key positions
Look for underdogs with a clear strength that matches up well against a favorite's weakness. These style clashes often lead to upsets when the underdog can dictate the terms of engagement.
Advanced Metrics vs. Seed Line
Sometimes the NCAA Tournament selection committee gets it wrong. Some teams might be under-seeded due to factors like playing in a less respected conference or having early-season struggles before finding their stride. Other teams may receive a more favorable seed because they played a tough schedule or play in a prestigious conference.
Advanced metrics like KenPom ratings, NET rankings, or BPI can help identify teams whose true strength doesn't match their seed. When you find a 12 seed that ranks similarly to a typical 8 or 9 seed in these metrics, you might have found an upset waiting to happen.
Factors That Shouldn't Influence Your Upset Picks
Team Colors or Mascots
While it might be tempting to pick based on which mascot would win in a fight or which team has your favorite colors, these approaches are no better than random guessing. Stick to basketball factors rather than superficial elements.
Geographic Proximity to Tournament Site
While playing close to home can provide a slight advantage, this factor is often overvalued. The committee tries to keep high seeds close to home anyway, so any advantage often benefits the favorite rather than the underdog.
Famous Coaches Alone
Having a legendary coach helps but isn't enough on its own to prevent an upset. Even the best coaches like Mike have suffered first-round upsets. Instead of focusing solely on the coach's name recognition, look at how well their team is playing entering the tournament.
Regular Season Record Only
A team's overall record can be misleading due to scheduling differences. A 27-6 team from a weak conference might be less prepared for tournament play than a 22-11 team that faced tough competition all season. Look deeper than just the win-loss record.
Overvaluing Recent Champions
Don't give too much weight to programs that have won championships in recent years. Each tournament features new teams with different strengths and weaknesses. Gonzaga, for example, has been a 1 seed multiple times but hasn't won a championship despite their program prestige.
Strategies for Different Contest Types
For Bracket Contests
In traditional bracket pools where you pick the entire tournament before it begins:
- Pick 8-10 upsets total, with most in the first two rounds
- Include at least one 12-5 upset
- Have at least one double-digit seed reaching the Sweet Sixteen
- Do not pick too many upsets in the Elite Eight and beyond
- Consider how points are awarded in your pool – some give more points for upset picks
Many bracket contests award increasing points in later rounds, so getting your Final Four mostly correct is usually more important than nailing first-round upsets.
For Betting Individual Games
When betting on individual matchups:
- Compare the point spread to your own analysis
- Look for underdogs getting too many points based on key factors like the ones discussed in this guide
- Consider point spread betting rather than just picking the winner
- Moneyline bets on carefully selected underdogs can provide great value
Oddsmakers set lines to balance betting action, not necessarily to predict the exact outcome. This creates opportunities where public perception and reality do not match.
Conclusion
Picking March Madness upsets successfully requires a balance of data analysis, knowledge of college basketball and March Madness history, and a bit of courage to go against popular opinion.
No strategy guarantees perfect picks, but understanding the patterns and factors that contribute to upsets will give you a significant edge over those who do not are not as thorough.
The single-elimination format of March Madness ensures that upsets will always be part of the tournament's DNA. Embracing that unpredictability as part of your betting strategy but be deliberate and careful about doing so. Striking that balance is key to both enjoying the tournament as a viewer and finding success in your brackets or bets.
Remember, even the best analysts rarely get more than 70% of their March Madness picks correct. Therefore, do not be discouraged by missed predictions. In fact, if you are betting on the tournament, some early misses can help you adjust your strategy and help you still turn a tidy tournament profit.
As you apply these strategies, trust your research but also listen to your instincts. Sometimes that gut feeling about picking or avoiding an underdog is picking up on intangible factors that statistics miss.
Ultimately, you will miss some of the upsets that occur, and some of your upset picks will not come to pass even if the analysis and forecast were favorable. But if you use the information provided in this guide and other reputable resources to your advantage, March Madness upsets will be a significant boost to your bracket or bankroll this March and beyond.
More March Madness Information
All of our content for this year's NCAA Division I men's and women's basketball tournaments can be found in one place. Bookmark our March Madness main page to keep up with our picks, predictions, and tips on how to bet on the action at the best online sportsbooks.
The tips, tricks, and picks we provide are not only helpful for moneyline betting, spread betting, and over/under betting on games and futures bets on the tournament as a whole. They can also be valuable for your March Madness bracket challenges, including our very own Betting News Bracket Mania.
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