ATP Acapulco 2022 Odds: Medvedev, Nadal Meet in Mexican Open Semis

After their epic Australian Open final last month, the prospect of Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal meeting into the semifinals at this week’s ATP Acapulco event was a mouthwatering one.

Of course, each player had to knock out three wins to set up that semifinal showdown. But they have done just that and will face off tonight in the 2022 Mexican Open semifinals.

Medvedev will go into his rematch with Nadal already assured of the number one ranking, as Novak Djokovic’s shock loss at the ATP Dubai Tennis Championships, combined with Medvedev’s advancement to the semifinals in Acapulco, means that Medvedev will be in top spot come next week.

While he has that to look forward to, he will no doubt want to go all the way this week and claim his first singles title since his US Open triumph over Djokovic this past September.

Here’s a look at the odds for the tournament and today’s semifinal matchups, which see Stefanos Tsitsipas taking on Cameron Norrie before Medvedev and Nadal tangle in the nightcap.

ATP Acapulco 2022 Men’s Singles Tournament Info and Betting Odds

ATP Acapulco Tournament Information

• Event: 2022 Mexican Open (a.k.a. the 2022 Abierto Mexicano Telcel)
• Venue & Location: Arena GNP Seguros (Acapulco, Mexico)
• Date: February 21-26, 2022
• Surface: Hard (outdoor)
• Defending Champion: Alexander Zverev

Odds to Win the 2022 Mexican Open Men’s Singles Title

• Daniil Medvedev +150
• Rafael Nadal +200
• Stefanos Tsitsipas +260
• Cameron Norrie +750

Odds are via BetMGM as of Friday, February 25, 2022.

2022 ATP Acapulco Men’s Singles Seeds and Draw

Men’s Singles Seeds

(Players in bold are still in the tournament. Current ATP singles ranking in parentheses.)

• 1. Daniil Medvedev (#2)
• 2. Alexander Zverev (#3)
• 3. Stefanos Tsitsipas (#4)
• 4. Rafael Nadal (#5)
• 5. Matteo Berrettini (#6)
• 6. Cameron Norrie (#13)
• 7. Taylor Fritz (#17)
• 8. Pablo Carreno Busta (#18)

ATP Acapulco Men’s Singles Draw and Odds – Semifinals

Friday, February 25

• #3 Stefanos Tsitsipas (-185) vs. #6 Cameron Norrie (+140), 9:00 p.m. ET
• #1 Daniil Medvedev (-150) vs. #4 Rafael Nadal (+115), 11:00 p.m. ET

2022 Mexican Open Semifinals

#3 Stefanos Tsitsipas (-185) vs. #6 Cameron Norrie (+140), 9:00 p.m. ET

With Zverev (rightfully) being disqualified from the tournament due to his temper tantrum following his doubles match on Tuesday, the chance to see all top four seeds (and four of the top five players in the ATP singles rankings) in the semifinals was lost.

As a result, Norrie landed a comparatively less difficult quarterfinal matchup against 95th-ranked Peter Gojowczyk, who advanced to the quarters via walkover after Zverev’s removal from the tournament.

Norrie didn’t look a gift horse in the mouth and summarily dispatched Gojowczyk 6-1, 6-0 to set up a semifinal tilt with Tsitsipas, who has bounced back well from a surprising quarterfinal loss to Roman Safiullin, who is ranked 150th, at Open 13 in Marseille, France–where he was the top seed–last week.

Tsitsipas, who reached the Australian Open semis and lost to the Felix Auger-Aliassime in the final of the Rotterdam Open two weeks ago, has won his three ATP Acapulco matches in straight sets. Norrie, meanwhile, had a three-setter in the second round against American John Isner, but won his other two matches in straights.

Norrie won the Delray Beach Open in Florida last week, so he is in good form at the moment. That said, Tsitsipas is certainly the superior player, and other than his loss to Safiullin, has started 2022 well. Look for him to book his second final in 2022 and return to the Mexican Open final for the second year in a row.

The moneyline value for Tsitsipas is not great, but you can find better value on the games won spread, with Tsitsipas -1.5 currently at -155 at BetOnline

Tsitsipas vs. Norrie Pick: Tsitsipas to win

#1 Daniil Medvedev (-150) vs. #4 Rafael Nadal (+115), 11:00 p.m. ET

When last we saw Medvedev and Nadal face one another, it was in an unforgettable Australian Open final last month. Medvedev took the first two sets, but Nadal didn’t fold and battled back to take the final three sets to win his record-breaking 21st Grand Slam men’s singles title.

This is the first tournament for both players since their masterpiece in Melbourne, and neither player has dropped a set. Medvedev’s easy, breezy win over Yoshihito Nishioka yesterday ensured him of the top spot in next week’s ATP singles rankings. But he won’t be satisfied with just a trip to the semis.

Nadal had a little trouble in the second set against American Tommy Paul in yesterday’s quarters, needing a tiebreak to send Paul packing in straights. But other than that, it has been a pretty comfortable run for him so far in Acapulco.

Nadal has won the Mexican Open three times, twice when the event was a clay event–which it was prior to 2014–and then in 2020. But he is up against recent history, as there have been eight different winners in the first eight years that the ATP Acapulco event has been a hard-court tournament.

That said, Nadal has had Medvedev’s number, with Australia the latest favorable result. He is 4-1 against the soon-to-be number one, with all five matches on hard courts. Medvedev’s only win against Nadal to date was in the semifinals of the 2020 ATP Finals, while the only match to not go maximum sets thus far was their first meeting in the 2019 Canadian Open final in Montreal.

Medvedev has been dominant this week but look for Nadal to maintain the upper hand and advance to his fifth ATP Acapulco final.

Medvedev vs. Nadal Pick: Nadal to win