Olympic Men’s Soccer, New Zealand vs United States: Prediction & Best Bets (7/27)

You thought the EURO and Copa America were the end of International Soccer for the summer? Think again. We’ve got both Men’s and Women’s Olympic soccer still to discuss as the 2024 Paris Olympics get underway. Today we will be looking at the 2nd game of Group Stage for two teams, one who needs a win much more than the other, as the United States take on New Zealand.

Now, first and foremost, it is crucial to understand the squads that are representing their countries. For the men’s side of things, the Olympics are strictly a U-23 tournament, with each team getting a few veteran exceptions on their roster. So understand that Lionel Messi and Christian Pulisic are not playing in this tournament. The Olympics are not the pinnacle of the sport, and athletes and organizations care more about the World Cup, the Copa America, and the EUROs. However, these young kids are still excited to represent their countries and showcase their skills on an international stage.

As mentioned, this is the 2nd game of Group Stage, and the United States need a win. After falling to France 3-nil in their first match, the United States could be eliminated early with a loss today. New Zealand was able to slip past Guinea by a score of 2-1, securing 3 points for themselves. A win today for New Zealand seals their spot in the knockout rounds, while it would also send the United States packing for a meaningless 3rd match against Guinea.

Will the United States be able to rally and find 3 points in this game? Or can New Zealand put them out of their misery early and solidify a match to win the Group with France?

New Zealand vs United States Match Information

Matchup Information

• Venue: Orange Vélodrome (Marseille, France)
• Date: Saturday, July 27th, 2024
• Kick Off: 1:00pm Eastern
• Where to Watch: USA Network, Peacock

Betting Odds

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Money Line

• New Zealand +600
• Draw +360
• United States -222

Spread

• New Zealand +1 (+110)
• United States -1 (-145)

Total

• Over 2.5 (-150)
• Under 2.5 (+115)

Will United States Find Critical Points in this Match?

The United States had their most difficult match to start their Olympic campaign, so it only gets easier from here. However, they desperately need a win. Even a draw will likely make it difficult for them to advance, so getting three points in this match is extremely important. Personally, I think they have what it takes to get it done, but it will not come easily.

Must Win Match for the USA

In their match against France, the United States kept up with them in terms of shot attempts and even shots on target, but the goaltending and number of corner kicks was the difference maker. France had 8 corner kicks compared to the United States’ 2, and they were able to save all 3 of our shots on target. Patrick Schulte only saved one of the four shots he saw, which simply won’t cut it. The United States will certainly need to see an uptick in offensive production against New Zealand.

Despite beating Guinea 2-1, New Zealand didn’t exactly dominate the game. They jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the 25th minute, but were out possessed and outshot by their opponent. New Zealand produced 9 total shots, 5 of them on target and just 2 corner kicks with 44% possession. Guinea dominated the other 56% possession, totaling 9 corner kicks, 17 shot attempts and 8 of them on goal. Alex Paulson made 7 saves to secure the victory for his team. Although the United States lacked offensive production in their first match, all hands will be on deck today in order to create some scoring chances.

I see the United States controlling the pace and possession of this game, as I think they are the more skilled team overall. I think New Zealand played most of their first game on their heels, and I expect them to spend even more time defending in this match today. While the United States held strong for the first 45 minutes against France, they will certainly be spending more time on the attack today and will be betting accordingly.

New Zealand vs United States Best Bets

Best Bets: United States 1H -0.5 (-105) BetOnline

Just looking at the odds movement in this match is insane. The United States opened up at -140 favorites on the ML, and the best line out there at the moment is -222. Clearly, the books are well aware of how aggressive the United States will begin this match. As this could be it for their Olympic campaign, the squad should leave everything they have out on the field tonight, much unlike the senior squad against Uruguay in the Copa America, where they played as if they had nothing to lose.

Tonight the United States has everything to lose if they don’t walk away with three points. This team should be going 0 to 100 as fast as they can in order to produce a multitude of scoring chances. Do I think they are able to put them away? Eh, maybe. But I’ve got faith in those chances at least being produced, and if you pepper the net enough, eventually something is going to break through. If I’m the United States, I don’t waste anytime toying with New Zealand, and make sure they know we are here to compete for a full 90 minutes. For this price, I’ll back the US to net one before halftime and lead at the first break.

More Olympic Coverage

• Men’s Olympic Basketball Odds
• 3 Gold Medal Bets

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