Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs: NHL Predictions & Best Bets

I’m not quite sure what’s going on in the NHL scheduler’s heads, as we have a solo standalone hockey game tonight while the entire league plays tomorrow on NBA Opening Night. Absolute madness, but, it does bring us quite the showdown tonight on the ice up in Canada, as the Toronto Maple Leafs defend their home ice against the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The Maple Leads are 3-2 on the season and are on their last game of a home stand before heading the Columbus tomorrow. The Maple Leads lost on the road to Montreal in their opener, and were shutout, 1-0. Then they went to New Jersey and took down the Devils. The Maple Leafs found their rhythm, winning two straight at home to make it 3 wins in a row, scoring 14 goals in that stretch. But then the big, bad Rangers came to town and took them down, 4-1. Now Toronto hosts the Lightning in a bounce back spot at home.

The Lightning are in their own bounce back spot as well, as they are coming off their first loss of the season. Tampa Bay cruised to 3 straight wins to start the season, but lost to the Senators on the road in their first stop on this trip. The Lightning face Toronto tonight and New Jersey tomorrow before heading back home, so they’d like to at least get a few points on this roadtrip. The Lightning have scored 4 goals exactly in every single game so far this season, but have also given up 8 in their last two.

Will fans see some red lights between these two teams tonight? And who might be able to secure a victory with both teams looking ahead to tomorrow’s games?

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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs: Atlantic Division Showdown

Matchup Information – Lightning vs Maple Leafs

• Venue & Location: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto, Ontario)
• Date: Monday, October 21st, 2024
• Puck Drop: 7:30pm Eastern
• Broadcast: NHL Network

Betting Odds

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Puck Line

• Lightning +1.5 (-215)
• Maple Leafs -1.5 (+185)

Money Line

• Lightning +113
• Maple Leafs -127

Total

• Over 6.5 (-106)
• Under 6.5 (-110)

Who Will Bounce Back Following a Loss?

There’s no doubt, these are two of the most exciting teams in the NHL. So regardless of the result, we should be in for a thriller tonight. Both squads look different from last year, but let’s take a look at those results just to see what we’re working with.

TB vs TOR Head to Head Last Year

• Oct. 21st, 2023: 4-3 OT, TOR Wins in TB
• Nov. 6th, 2023: 6-5 OT, TOR Wins in TOR
• April 3rd, 2024: 4-1, TB Wins in TOR
• April 17th, 2024: 6-4 TB Wins in TB

So both teams split, both teams split on their home ice… but holy goals. The Lightning averaged 4.5 goals per game against the Leafs while they put up 3.75 of their own, both well above their season averages for the entire year. However, it was never Anthony Stolarz in net, who will be patrolling the posts for the Maple Leafs tonight.

Both Andrei Vasilevskiy and Stolarz have a sub 1.75 GA/A so far this year, and save over 90% of the shots they face, ranking Top 10 in the NHL. The Maple Leafs shoot nearly 33 shots on goal per game, while the Lightning despite scoring 4 goals per game do so on just 26 shots. I think tonight, the Lightning will have to find a way to really put some pressure on Stolarz and test him quite often in order to sneak some through. Both teams are Top 4 in the NHL in shots allowing, limiting their opponents to under 27 shots per contest.

Will either team be able to break through tonight? Or will we see a meticulous defensive game?

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Best Bets

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Prediction: Either Team 3-2, Overtime Yes (+350), Under 6.5

Best Bets: TB/TOR Under 6.5 (-110) BetOnline

Look, maybe I’m putting on my tin foil hat backwards, or a little too tight. But these teams have soared over 6.5 in 3/4 games last season and even put up 5 goals in the other. But now we have an early season matchup where both tenders are standing on their heads and making incredible saves.

As a team, the Lightning allowed 2.5 goals per game and just 25 shots. The Maple Leafs allow just 2.20 goals and 27 shots per contest. I see this being a slow paced, defensive game, with both teams willing to put their bodies on the line to block a shot. Not only are both teams very good at containing offenses and limited chances on net, but they are also blocking close to 17 shots per game. This will certainly limit the pressure on the goal tenders, and hopefully cause this game to go under tonight.

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