Stanley Cup Final Historical Trends: Favorites are the Best Bet

The Stanley Cup Final is upon us. However, before we see the Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning battle it out, it’s time to take a peek at the past.

Over the last 10 years, six different teams have raised the Cup. Each year has presented a different matchup with unique odds and statistics. Before any bets are placed on the Final this year, take a look at some of these trends that have popped up during the last decade of play.

Stanley Cup Final Matchups (Last 10 Seasons)

• 2021: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens
• 2020: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Dallas Stars
• 2019: St. Louis Blues vs. Boston Bruins
• 2018: Washington Capitals vs. Vegas Golden Knights
• 2017: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Nashville Predators
• 2016: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. San Jose Sharks
• 2015: Chicago Blackhawks vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
• 2014: Los Angeles Kings vs. New York Rangers
• 2013: Chicago Blackhawks vs. Boston Bruins
• 2012: Los Angeles Kings vs. New Jersey Devils

The Tampa Bay Lightning lead the way with the most appearances over the past 10 years. They will make their 4th appearance in the past 8 years when the 2022 Final gets underway on June 15.

Stanley Cup Final Series Length (Last 10 Seasons)

• 2021: 5 games (Tampa Bay 4-1)
• 2020: 6 games (Tampa Bay 4-2)
• 2019: 7 games (St. Louis 4-3)
• 2018: 5 games (Washington 4-1)
• 2017: 6 games (Pittsburgh 4-2)
• 2016: 6 games (Pittsburgh 4-2)
• 2015: 6 games (Chicago 4-2)
• 2014: 5 games (Los Angeles 4-1)
• 2013: 6 games (Chicago 4-2)
• 2012: 6 games (Los Angeles 4-2)

Six out of the last ten Cup Finals have gone 6 games. There has not been much drama is Game 7s, as there has only been one since 2012. Also, sweeping the series has proven itself difficult, as no team has done so since the 1998 Detroit Red Wings.

There is always a favorite in the series. The odds get released, and we spend our time figuring out why each team is represented in the lines the way they are. But how many times has the favorite come away with the series victory?

Stanley Cup Final Favorites (Last 10 Seasons)

Teams in BOLD won the Stanley Cup

• 2021: Tampa Bay Lightning -280, Montreal Canadiens +240
• 2020: Tampa Bay Lightning -180, Dallas Stars +160
• 2019: Boston Bruins -160, St. Louis Blues +140
• 2018: Vegas Golden Knights -153, Washington Capitals +133
• 2017: Pittsburgh Penguins -165, Nashville Predators +145
• 2016: Pittsburgh Penguins -135, San Jose Sharks +115
• 2015: Chicago Blackhawks -135, Tampa Bay Lightning +115
• 2014: Los Angeles Kings -165, New York Rangers +145
• 2013: Chicago Blackhawks -155, Boston Bruins +135
• 2012: Los Angeles Kings -170, New Jersey Devils +150

Over the past decade, the favorites are trending in the positive direction. In eight out of the last ten Finals, the pre-series favorite has gone on to win it all. The only times the underdogs won were in back-to-back seasons in 2018 and 2019.

Teams with home ice advantage have also done well. Most of the time they end up as the favorite, but in the case of the 2015 Chicago Blackhawks and 2012 Los Angeles Kings, the team without home ice was the favorite and ended up winning. Overall, teams with home ice have won 6 of the last 10 titles.

Total Goals Scored in Final (Last 10 Seasons)

• 2021: 25 goals in 5 games (5 goals per game average)
• 2020: 33 goals in 6 games (5.5 goals per game average)
• 2019: 40 goals in 7 games (5.71 goals per game average)
• 2018: 34 goals in 5 games (6.8 goals per game average)
• 2017: 32 goals in 6 games (5.33 goals per game average)
• 2016: 27 goals in 6 games (4.5 goals per game average)
• 2015: 23 goals in 6 games (3.83 goals per game average)
• 2014: 25 goals in 5 games (5 goals per game average)
• 2013: 32 goals in 6 games (5.33 goals per game average)
• 2012: 24 goals in 6 games (4 goals per game average)

The offense has been on point the past few seasons. There are a few outliers, such as the 2015 Final, but overall 5 goals per game or more is a good bet. The trends look good if you are going to bet the Over this season, especially with the two teams playing.

Right now the Over/Under on total goals for the 2022 Stanley Cup Final is set at 32.5. If the series goes 6 or more games, the Over is almost certain to hit. Be careful though, as the series could be cut short, and 5 goals per game will not get you to the target.

Translating the Trends

The Colorado Avalanche are the favorite to win the title this year, and they have home ice, so the trends point to them as the team to bet. They have a high-powered offense that will surely score plenty of goals, and your side bets look good if you took the Over on total goals.

We should be seeing at least 5 games, as both teams have exceptional talent, and a sweep is almost impossible. However, stranger things have happened. If you go based on the trends in this piece, it’s a favorable bet to take the Total Games north of 5.

The Final gets underway on Wednesday, June 15. The Avalanche will look for their first title since 2001. The Lightning look to break all the trends and win their third straight.

Other 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs Content on Betting News

• Avalanche vs. Lightning Stanley Cup Finals Odds and Prediction