Penguins vs Lightning Prediction, Odds & Picks | NHL Betting (Nov. 30): Home Sweet Home for Tampa

After the NHL broadcasted just three games last night, hockey is back with a 14-game slate lined up for Thursday, Nov. 30. There’s a handful of matchups you won’t want to miss tonight, including a 7 p.m. ET showdown between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Tampa Bay Lightning.

Thunderbolt and Lightning, very, very frightening?

📺: SportsNet Pittsburgh at 6 ET
🆚: @penguins at @TBLightning pic.twitter.com/uprSLhKQMe

— SportsNet Pittsburgh (@SNPittsburgh) November 30, 2023

Both the Penguins and Lightning have struggled to produce results lately, each losing three of their last four outings. Pittsburgh heads into this tilt following Tuesday’s 3-2 overtime loss to the Nashville Predators while Tampa Bay hopes to rebound from a 3-1 loss to the Arizona Coyotes.

But despite any recent struggles, both franchises are expected to qualify for the 2023-24 NHL playoffs. BetOnline’s futures markets list the Penguins at -120 odds (54.6%) to make the postseason while the Bolts sit at -155 (60.8%).

This article has everything you need to know for tonight’s clash — especially from a betting perspective. Here’s a look at my Penguins vs Lightning prediction and best bets, as well as the latest matchup odds and trends.

Penguins vs Lightning Tonight (Nov. 30)

Penguins vs Lightning Matchup Information

• Matchup: Pittsburgh Penguins (10-10-1, 5-4-1 Away) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (10-8-5, 6-2-3 Home)
• Venue & Location: Amalie Arena (Tampa, FL)
• Date: Thursday, Nov. 30, 2023
• Game Time: 7 p.m. Eastern Time
• Penguins vs. Lightning TV Info: ESPN+, SportsNet Pittsburgh

Penguins vs Lightning Odds

NHL game odds courtesy of BetDSI as of Thursday, Nov. 30 at 9:18 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Penguins vs Lightning Spread

• Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5 (-195)
• Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (+165)

Penguins vs Lightning Over/Under

• Over 6.5 Goals (-115)
• Under 6.5 Goals (-105)

Penguins vs Lightning Moneyline

• Pittsburgh Penguins (+120)
• Tampa Bay Lightning (-140)

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Penguins vs Lightning Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh is 2-5 straight up in its last seven games.
• Tampa Bay is 2-4 straight up in its last six games vs. the Metropolitan Division.
• The total hit the Under in nine of Pittsburgh’s last 13 road games.
• The total hit the Under in six of Tampa Bay’s last nine games.
• The total hit the Over in five of the last six Pittsburgh-Tampa Bay matchups.

Penguins vs Lightning Prediction & Pick (Nov. 30)

A lack of offense is a big reason why the Penguins have lost five of their last seven games heading into this matchup.

Despite boasting offensive talents like Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Erik Karlsson, the Penguins averaged exactly two goals in their seven previous outings. It doesn’t help that the power play is also 0-for-19 during that stretch.

While the Lightning have only scored twice in their last two games, they’re averaging 3.9 goals in their last seven outings, scoring at least four in four of those contests. In fact, three of those instances occurred at Amalie Arena.

Scoring on the man advantage also hasn’t been an issue for the Lightning, who are 9-for-24 (37.5%) on the power play in their last seven games. The Penguins might have the sixth-best penalty kill league-wide this season (86.4%), but it’s worth noting that their PK only has a 70% success rate in their last nine trips to Tampa.

The Penguins also need goaltender Tristan Jarry to perform better on the road. While the 28-year-old veteran has been solid and even leads the NHL with three shutouts this year, he has a 3.01 goals-against average and .898 save percentage in his last three away starts.

Meanwhile, the Lightning hope that Andrei Vasilevskiy can take one step closer to returning to form. He’s had his ups and downs since returning from a back injury, going 1-1-0 with a 2.53 GAA and .891 SV% in two starts.

With the above in mind, I see the Lightning winning tonight. Their special teams are playing better and they’re actually getting goals from their star players. The Penguins will push and could take advantage of Vasilevskiy’s rust at times, but I can’t bring myself to trust a team that’s struggling to score more than two goals.

There’s some decent value to be had by taking the favorites at -140 on the moneyline, so let’s stick with an outright bet tonight.

Penguins vs Lightning Prediction: TB wins

Best Bet: TB ML (-140 on BetDSI)

Best Penguins vs Lightning Player Prop

I’m switching over to BetOnline for my favorite Penguins vs. Lightning player prop, which is Nikita Kucherov to finish with 5+ shots on goal.

The dynamic Russian forward has been generating offense like no tomorrow as of late, averaging 5.2 shots in his last 14 games. Not only did he finish with at least five SOG in 10 of those contests, but he’s also averaging 5.8 SOG in five games at Amalie Arena during that span.

With the Penguins allowing an average of 33 shots in their last seven games, it’s the perfect storm for Kucherov to make good on this prop again.

Bet: Nikita Kucherov 5+ Shots on Goal (+114 on BetOnline)

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