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NHL: Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders Prediction & Odds || January 11, 2024
Written by: Nick Zanghi
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Game night on Long Island as the Toronto Maple Leafs (21-10-7) take on the New York Islanders (18-12-10). The Islanders won the 1st matchup between these 2 teams by a score of 4-3.
It’s always fun to watch these 2 teams play on Long Island because of John Tavares. Islander fans still hold a grudge with the Tavares situation because he could’ve been traded if he was going to leave, but I digress.
Coming into this game, the Islanders are 4th in the Metro Division and are on a 2-game losing streak. They are 4-4-2 in their last 10 games and lost both of their last 2 games 5-2 to the Knights and Canucks.
New York’s defense has been their weak point on the year, blowing leads and losing in overtime. I mean, they just let up 10 goals in their last 2 games – insanity. They allow 3.3 goals per game and rank 2nd to last in the league for shots on goal allowed.
The Islanders offense isn’t amazing, but they get the job done. Players like Mat Barzal have shown a lot of improvement since last year. Bo Horvat is comfortable and clicking with Barzal. Brock Nelson leads the team with 19 goals on the year.
Expected in net is the Islanders start goalie Ilya Sorokin. He has a record of 12-8-8 with a 3.20 GAA and .909 save percentage. He’s really been put to work this year. Sorokin’s OTL column is due to the late defensive breakdowns, but he has not looked great as of late.
Toronto is having a decent start to the year, as they should with the amount of money they spend of offense. They’re 3rd in the Atlantic Division and are coming in on a 4-game winning streak.
The Leafs are heating up as they’re 5-4-1 in their last 10 games but were 1-4-1 in the 6 games prior. They are very comfortable on the road with a 11-3-5 record, so expect them to be on their toes.
John Tavares will make his return to the island again. He has been gone for so many years, but with the history, it’s always a circled game. He has a 3-4 record as a visitor since leaving but has 3 goals in his last 4 games.
Goalie Martin Jones has been confirmed for tomorrow. He has a record of 8-3-0 this season with an impressive 1.98 GAA and a .934 save percentage. Jones is just getting comfortable with the departure of Samsonov. The Islanders lack of offense is going to be a concern against Jones.
Let’s take a look at the odds and the predictions.
Betting Odds
Puck Line
- Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 (+168)
- New York Islanders +1.5 (-205)
Moneyline
- Toronto Maple Leafs -137
- New York Islanders +114
Totals
- Over 6.5 (-118)
- Under 6.5 (-104)
Odds courtesy of MyBookie
Game Information
- Venue: UBS Arena, Elmont, NY
- Date: Thursday, January 11, 2024
- Puck Drop: 7pm EST
- TV: ESPN
Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders Prediction and Picks
Prediction and Pick: Game Total Over 6.5 (-118) MyBookie
Whenever Tavares is in town (or these teams meet), it’s always a great game. I really think this game is going to be electric and we’re going to see a lot of goals. The last 3 games have gone over with totals of 7, 9, and 7.
The Leafs have been putting the puck in the back of the net this season. They’ve scored 10 goals over the last 3 games vs the Islanders and Sorokin has been extremely leaky.
New York have been scoring the past vs Toronto, but Samsonov is gone. They do have good numbers vs Jones, winning the last 4 out of 5 games. The Islanders averaged 3.5 goals per game in those 4 wins.
With the offense of the Leafs mixed with Sorokin’s struggles and the Isles history vs Jones – we see a high scoring game. I think the line is set right and we’re getting good value. We don’t have to pay the juice man at all.
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Nick Zanghi is an avid hockey fan who loves to bet on the NHL Props. He has also found a liking for the WNBA. Born and raised on LI, NZ is a lifelong Islanders #isles fan and a new NY Liberty fan #LIGHTITUPNYL. When not watching or attending sporting events, he enjoys grilling and time with his wife and kids. Follow NZ on X @_NZeee for more sports betting content.
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