NHL Playoff Series Preview: Dallas Stars vs. Colorado Avalanche

Round 2 is upon us and this should be the best series of the lot. A true clash of the titans. Dallas took down the Stanley Cup Champion Vegas Golden Knights, and their reward? The 2022 Cup Champs in the Colorado Avalanche. Talk about a murderer’s row of opponents on a Cup run. Dallas and Vegas was the most entertaining series of the first round and Dallas is likely to be involved in the best series of the second round. Two Cup contenders go head to head for the second straight round with superstars, a great goaltender, trophy nominees and high end coaches.

Western Conference Round 2 schedule: pic.twitter.com/ZH0zJt8xMW

— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) May 6, 2024

Regular Season Performance Matchup

Colorado bested Dallas in the season series, but Dallas’ long-term play and trade deadline additions make this a different story. Colorado has a slight scoring edge due to superstar-led offence. Dallas has a distinct advantage in goal and both teams have similar specialty teams. Special teams can be the difference maker in a playoff series, and both teams are performing well. That is likely to be a wash in the series, with Colorado’s powerplay performing at a better clip in the playoffs. Both teams are excellent at 5on5, which is where the majority of the game is played. Their luck factor is null as 100% is expected. The reality is, these two teams are likely the two best teams remaining in the playoffs and are going head to head for a spot in the Western Conference Final. If Dallas plays to their regular season capabilities and Colorado continues their play from the first round, this is a clash of the titans. Buckle up.

Key Players

This is not a secret. Nathan Mackinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar are the most important players for Colorado. Valeri Nichushkin is another critical piece that raises his play in the spring. Mackinnon and Rantanen rank 6th and 7th all time in playoff points per game; they are playoff beasts. If they continue that playoff performance, there is very little you can do to stop that. Nichushkin was brilliant in the first round, leading the team in goals and consistently being a forechecking menace. Cale Makar is the best defenceman in the world, a difference maker on every shift, and a true game breaker. If those four players continue their first round play, we are in for on helluva series. Where it gets seriously important is he goaltending, Alexander Georgiev. The Avalanche were able to outscore their problems by getting in front of Hellebuyck, using their speed and size on the forecheck and covering up mistakes. That’s going to be more difficult against Dallas who is deeper up front and on the back end. Georgiev simply cannot put up a .900 save percentage if Oettinger continues to put up .925. He has to be within 10 percentage points of Oettinger. The Avalanche don’t need him to be a series stealer, but they need him to not lose the series for them.

For Dallas, Jake Oettinger is the backbone of the team. As he goes, the Stars go. They lack the firepower that Colorado has, but their key advantage is in net. Oettinger was incredible the last five games of the Vegas series, and will need to be to stop the high octane offence that Colorado brings. His importance to the team cannot be overstated, with key saves at critical times and giving confidence to the players in front of him. He will surely be called upon, with Colorado averaging 5 goals per game in the round. While it is unlikely that Dallas gives up that many scoring chances, it is a sure bet that Oettinger will be under far more pressure from Colorado’s offence than Vegas’. Secondly, Roope Hintz and Wyatt Johnston will play critical roles for Dallas up the middle. Adam Lowry and Mark Scheifele could not slow down the Colorado onslaught. Hintz is a high-end defensive center who will need to do a better job of shutting down Mackinnon, Rantanen, Nichushkin and Makar. Johnston had a coming out party in the first round, becoming a difference maker every given night. Johnston’s matchup will be significantly harder and he will need to continue to produce offence while not giving up much defensively. Dallas’ depth is key in this series and Johnston is a big part of that. If the Stars are going to win the series they need these three players to play at an elite level.

Who Wins?

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This is going to be an excellent series, no doubt about it. The model ran a few simulations. If Georgiev puts up .910, the Stars are 52% to win the series, with the home ice advantage. If Georgiev is .900, the Stars are 57% to win the series. That is the chasmic difference. Dallas is the deepest team from a roster perspective in the NHL and it showed in the first round. Colorado’s lack of forward depth is apparent and is the difference in the series. Colorado is a top-heavy lineup at forward and on the blue line. Dallas lacks superstar power and the caliber of difference makers that Colorado has, but Dallas has significantly better depth which served them well in the first round. The luxury of Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin on the third line is something Colorado cannot matchup against. This is going to be a long series, so I’m taking the exact bets. Dallas in 6 and Dallas in 7. Give me the best goaltender and the deeper team to out duel the superstars.