NHL Playoff Preview: New York Rangers vs. Carolina Hurricanes

One matchup is set for the second round of the NHL playoffs and it is a doozy! The Carolina Hurricanes and New York Rangers, two of the best teams in the East go head to head for the right to represent the Metropolitan Division in the Eastern Conference Final. This series is going to be incredible, with good goaltending, excellent depth and high end talent on both sides. There is not a lot of room between these two teams, meaning we should be in for along series and hopefully, a lot of overtimes. Let’s dive into the numbers!

Regular Season Performances

Comparing these teams in the regular shows one glaring point: these are two elite special teams franchises. Both clubs were top-5 in both categories this season, making this a top notch special teams matchup. There are less power plays in the playoffs, but both teams were able to take advantage of lesser teams in the first round, with their power plays clicking at more than 30%. However, the Rangers were able to completely shut down the Caps powerplay, notching an 88% success rate on the penalty kill. The Canes, on the other hand, saw their penalty kill fall nearly 15% in the first round to 72.7%. That is undoubtedly something they will work on heading into the second round because the Canes can ill afford their special teams to fall off against the Rangers. Generally speaking, the Canes are good at pressuring the puck, killing plays early and keeping the puck to the outside. The Rangers are unlikely to have the same success on the powerplay given the Canes season-long ability to keep teams off the scoresheet.

At 5v5, the Canes are clearly the better team. They are relatively even in goals scored, but the Canes are much better in the goals against category. To add to that, Frederik Andersen coming back healthy and playing very well makes things very interesting. A defensively sound team, arguably the NHL’s best defensive team, with a good goalie can be quite problematic for teams in the playoffs. Historically, the Canes have won the defensive matchup and struggled to score in the playoffs due to a lack of superstar talent. The Rangers have more game breakers, posing a challenge for the Canes. If the Rangers depth players can equal the Canes depth, the Rangers stars may be who puts them over the top. Over the course of the regular season, the Canes were the better team statistically, but the Rangers won more games on the backs of their key players…will that continue?

Key Players

This series is loaded with talent, though it skews slightly in the Rangers favor. Carolina has a ton of great hockey players, but they lack a bonafide superstar, a perennial trophy candidate. The Rangers have Shesterkin in goal, Adam Fox on the blue line and Artemi Panarin up front. To compliment that, the Rangers have playoff performers in Chris Kreider and Vincent Trochek. All of those players are capable of titling a game in the Rangers favor on any given night. The Canes are greater than the sum of their parts because they have an elite coach who gets his team to play a certain style and above their individual ceilings. Sebastian Aho, Jaccob Slavin and Jake Guentzel are potential difference makers, but it all hinges on Frederik Andersen.

Let’s start with the Rangers. Adam Fox is clearly playing with an ailment and his production has suffered greatly, with only two points in the first round. That is not going to cut it against the Canes, as the Rangers will need more offensive production from him in this series. Fox runs the Rangers powerplay and while it has been successful, he has not been the key driver on it. The Rangers need him to be his dominant self at 5on5 to win the series. Mika Zibanejad was a machine in the fist round, recording seven points in four games. He drove the Rangers offence in the first round along with Vincent Trochek. The Rangers have two lines that are firing on all cylinders offensively, giving Jordan Staal and Sebastian Aho a tall task in round two. It is only a matter of time until Artemi Panarin breaks out after recording three points in the first round. He notched two points in three games versus the Canes this year, but 120 points over the course of the season, nearly 1.5 points per game. He is due for a breakout and could be the series difference maker if he catches fire.

The aforementioned Staal and Aho headline the Canes list of key players, along with Jaccob Slavin. It is expected that the Canes will be without Brett Pesce for the beginning of the series, putting more pressure on Slavin and the rest of Carolina’s defencemen. Shutting down a high octane offence without one of your best is a tall task, so it sa good thing Carolina has Staal and Seth Jarvis, who are deservedly in the Selke conversation for best defensive forward. They play on separate lines, allowing the Canes to balance offence and defence on their top two lines. If they can keep the Rangers’ top players at bay and get a timely goal from Jake Guentzel, it is a recipe for success. Last season, the Canes struggled against Florida because they didn’t have a game breaker. Jake Guentzel is that game breaker, capable of scoring at key moments. If he can find the score sheet a few times in this series, it bodes well for Carolina. The last piece of the puzzle is the goaltending. Freddie Andersen has two modes: MVP caliber or Pumpkin. He’s looked MVP level through the first round and if that continues, it makes Carolina the favorite in the series. If he goes pumpkin mode, the Canes are toast. It is that simple.

Who Wins?

The big question…who wins. This and whoever plays Colorado are likely to be the two best series of the second round. Two elite teams matching up for a spot in the Final Four. The model has this 51-49 in favor of the Rangers, with home ice being the point of difference. Carolina has the strong team strength outcome, making them the better team. Home ice advantage plays a factor, and the Rangers being +135 to win the series has some value. If you’re interested in value, the Rangers are the play here. If Carolina had home ice, the series prediction would be 54-46 in favor of Carolina. Given the Rangers play at home this season, posting a 30-11 record, second to the Colorado Avalanche, there is an advantage to having home ice in the series. This is a coin toss series with value on the Rangers. However, the best bet is the series to go 6 or 7 games at +195 and +200 is where the coins belong. It is nearly impossible to fathom either team going quietly, making these enticing bets. I’ll take all three bets and when the Rangers win Game 1 at home, I will take Carolina at plus-money to win the series. That way, we make money no matter what.