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NHL Picks and Odds: Toronto Maple Leafs take on the New York Islanders || February 5, 2024
Written by: Nick Zanghi
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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The Toronto Maple Leafs (25-14-8) just had some fun hosting the NHL All-Star Weekend. They will now host the New York Islanders (20-17-12). Both teams had representation at the All Star, the Leafs with 4 and the Isles with 1.
As we start the 2nd half of the regular season, the Leafs come back on a 3-game winning streak. They’re 4-1-0 in their last 5 games and were just 5-4-1 in their last 10 games before heating up.
Toronto is an offensive juggernaut as we all know. The Leafs rank in the top 10 of major offensive categories like goals forced and shots on goal per game.
The big 4 in Toronto have been playing well. Auston Matthews leads the league and team with 40 goals and Willie Nylander leads the team with 61 points. Marner and Tavares are both doing their jobs too.
Defense isn’t their strong point though. The Leafs allow 3.17 goals and 30.5 shots on goal per game which rank 20th in the league. They also don’t kill penalties well with a 77.4 kil rate.
Goalie Ilya Samsonov at one point was sent down due to his poor play but has since been brought back up. He is currently 3-0-0 since his return and has 1 shutout. In those 3 games, he has a .98 GAA and a .960 save percentage.
Can the Islanders snap their losing streak and turn things around?
Maple Leafs trying to make a play with Isles goalie Ilya Sorokin ready.
New York had 1 player represent them at the All-Star game and that was Mat Barzal. He is now there waiting the arrival of his teammates for this showdown.
The Islanders are on a 3-game losing streak and are 2-6-2 in their last 10 games. They have been struggling on both ends of the ice.
Their offense has been very weak, ranking in the bottom 10 of the league for both goals forced and shots on goal per game.
On defense, they have been terrible. This is where they are killing themselves. Blowing countless 3rd period leads that led to losses or OTL’s. They also rank in the bottom of the league for goals allowed and shots on goal allowed per game.
Goalie Ilya Sorokin is a Vezina caliber goalie but has had a rough year. He has a 14-12-9 record, which is crazy when you think about it. There were 9 games that could’ve been W’s and he’s in Vezina conversation. His 3.17 GAA and .909 save percentage are ok but should be better.
Let’s check out the odds for the game and get into the picks.
Betting Odds
Puck Line
- New York Islanders +1.5 (-172)
- Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 (+142)
Moneyline
- New York Islanders +140
- Toronto Maple Leafs -170
Totals
- Over 6.5 (-110)
- Under 6.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of MyBookie
Game Information
- Venue: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON, CA
- Date: Monday, February 5, 2024
- Puck Drop: 7pm EST
- TV: MSGSN
New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction and Picks
Mat Barzal celebrates after scoring a goal.
Prediction and Pick: Game Total Over 6.5 Goals (-110) Get 50% up to $750 Deposit on BETUS for this pick
I think we see an offensive game here. Both goalies are questionable about which one are you going to get that night. You never know and with these 2 teams I think things can get out of hand as it has in the past.
The last 4 games they have played have gone over with 7 goals in each game. Over they’re last 10 games, the total is split 5 games and 5 games to the over and under.
Also, in those last 5 games, the Islanders have won the last 3 games. In 2 out of those 3 games that the Isles won, Samsonov was the goalie. On the other hand, so was Sorokin.
We have 2 goalies who can be very good but have shown to not be consistent this season. Both teams are going to try to get ahead earlier. I think if the scoring starts early, we should have a light sweat on our hands because these offenses can score.
We’re taking the over 6.5 at -110 all day.
Nugget: John Tavares 4+ Shots on Goal (-125)
When Tavares plays his old team – he always shows out. For the -125, it’s total worth playing. He has hit this mark in 4 straight games, with 1 of the games being 8 shots. It’s worth a unit and I’ll be sprinkling his anytime goal for +200 as he’s scored in 3 of their last 5 matches.
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Nick Zanghi is an avid hockey fan who loves to bet on the NHL Props. He has also found a liking for the WNBA. Born and raised on LI, NZ is a lifelong Islanders #isles fan and a new NY Liberty fan #LIGHTITUPNYL. When not watching or attending sporting events, he enjoys grilling and time with his wife and kids. Follow NZ on X @_NZeee for more sports betting content.
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