Heat vs Knicks Prediction, Odds & Picks | NBA In-Season Tournament (Nov. 24): Brunson Takes Charge

It’s Friday, basketball fans, and you know what that means. The NBA In-Season Tournament is back with even more group-stage play, including a showdown between the Miami Heat and New York Knicks, airing on ESPN at 7:30 p.m. ET.

On the call for ESPN Black Friday Heat-Knicks in the Garden: pic.twitter.com/Q5Mm9Yxwby

— New York Basketball (@NBA_NewYork) November 23, 2023

The Heat are experiencing a strong start to the group stage, heading into this matchup with a 2-0 record. The Knicks, meanwhile, earned their first win of the event when they defeated the Washington Wizards 120-99 two weeks ago, improving to 1-1 in the process.

Do either of these teams have a realistic chance to win the inaugural NBA In-Season Tournament? Well, Bovada lists Miami at +2200 odds (9th) to do so while New York isn’t much further back at +2500 (T-10th).

From my Heat vs Knicks prediction to the best bets to make, this betting preview has everything you need to know heading into tonight’s game.

Heat vs Knicks NBA In-Season Tournament (Nov. 24)

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Miami Heat (10-5, 6-4 Away) vs. New York Knicks (8-6, 3-2 Home)
• Venue & Location: Madison Square Garden (New York, NY)
• Date: Friday, Nov. 24, 2023
• Game Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time
• Heat vs. Knicks TV Channel Info: ESPN

Heat vs Knicks Odds & Spread

NBA game odds courtesy of Bovada as of Friday, Nov. 24 at 8:57 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Heat vs Knicks Spread

• Miami Heat +5.5 (-115)
• New York Knicks -5.5 (-105)

Heat vs Knicks Over/Under

• Over 212.5 Points (-110)
• Under 212.5 Points (-110)

Heat vs Knicks Moneyline

• Miami Heat (+180)
• New York Knicks (-220)

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Heat vs Knicks Betting Trends

• Miami is 6-1 straight up in its last seven road games.
• New York is 4-1 straight up in its last five home games vs. Miami.
• Miami is 4-2 ATS in its last six games vs. New York.
• New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games.
• The total has hit the Over in seven of Miami’s last 10 games played on Friday.
• The total has hit the Over in five of New York’s last seven games.

Heat vs Knicks Prediction & Pick (Nov. 24)

Tonight’s matchup is significant because it’s a rematch of the 2022-23 Eastern Conference Semifinals.

The Heat and Knicks collided for six games back in May, resulting in a 4-2 series victory for Miami as Erik Spoelstra’s team went on to ride that momentum all the way to the NBA Finals. Needless to say, New York wouldn’t mind some revenge tonight.

Fortunately, the Knicks have been playing some solid basketball lately. They’re 6-2 SU in their last eight games, also going 6-2 ATS, too. Their plus-61 point differential since Nov. 6 ranks fifth-best in the NBA, further highlighting just how good they’ve been.

And while the Knicks are only 3-2 at Madison Square Garden thus far (3-1-1 ATS), each of those wins came in their last three home games, defeating those teams by an average of 19 points.

The Heat are thriving away from home, though, winning six of their last seven road games. While strong defensive play has led to most of that success, holding those opponents to 103.9 PPG, it’s worth noting that Miami also averaged 114.0 PPG on .474/.393/.860 splits.

Having said that, the Heat could be quite shorthanded tonight. Tyler Herro (ankle), R.J. Hampton (knee), and Dru Smith (knee) have been ruled out while Duncan Robinson (thumb) and Bam Adebayo (hip) — two of their best players — will be game-time decisions.

Although the Knicks’ Evan Fournier is dealing with an ankle injury, he’s expected to play after logging a full practice on Wednesday.

Quentin Grimes went through practice in full today. Said his wrist feels good. Tom Thibodeau also said that Evan Fournier (ankle) participated fully in practice, as well.

— Fred Katz (@FredKatz) November 22, 2023

In what should be a close game, I could see the Knicks squeaking out a win. They’re healthier at the moment and have been dominating their opponents over the last few weeks, meaning they’ll likely be playing with confidence.

At the same time, I like the Heat on the spread. I just don’t see the Knicks decisively winning, especially with how well Spoelstra has his players adapting to injuries and other adversities. Besides, Miami is 4-2 ATS in its six previous meetings with New York.

Heat vs Knicks Prediction: NY wins

Best Bet: MIA +5.5 (-115 on Bovada)

Heat vs Knicks Best Player Prop

The Over on Jalen Brunson’s 23.5-point total is the best Heat vs Knicks prop bet, without a question.

The 2022-23 campaign was Brunson’s best and he’s back at it again this year. The 27-year-old guard is averaging 24.2 PPG on .438/.479/.870 splits. His point average has jumped up to 26.2 over his last nine games — a span where he hit the Over on this prop seven times.

Considering how he averaged 31.0 PPG against the Heat in the playoffs, it’s safe to say that Brunson is talented enough to make good on this prop again.

Bet: Jalen Brunson o23.5 PTS (-105 on Bovada)

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