Flames vs Oilers Prediction & Picks | An Analytical Look at the Battle of Alberta
Written by: Rachel Doerrie
Last Updated: Sat Feb 24, 2024, 19:38 PM
Read Time: 5 minutes
nhl
Calgary Flames Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.5
-145
6
-125o
+160
Edmonton Oilers Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-1.5
+135
6
+115u
-175
One of the games of the night is the Battle of Alberta featuring some of hockey’s brightest stars and a top-notch goaltender. The Edmonton Oilers (33-19-2) take on the Calgary Flames (27-25-5) at Rogers Arena at 10 PM ET. We’ll take an analytical look at the matchup and bet using the projections.
The Calgary Flames are the most intriguing team ahead of the NHL Trade Deadline where they could trade key pieces like Noah Hanifin, Chris Tanev and Jacob Markstrom. They are struggling to score goals and are consistently outplayed by their opponents at even strength. They are struggling to find consistency this season because they have been over reliant on their goaltending.
A key area to watch tonight will be the special teams. Edmonton’s powerplay is terrifying, boasting a 27.2% success rate and creating 11.65 expected goals for per 60. Calgary owns the 5th best penalty kill this season, and gives up only 6.5 expected goals against per 60. If the Flames are going to win this one, it will be without one of the league’s best goaltenders this season as Dan Vladar is starting in place of Jacob Markstrom (illness). The drop-off between the two is significant with Vladar posting a .888 SV% compared to Markstrom’s .914.
Flames vs Oilers NHL Betting Tonight (2/24)
Flames vs Oilers Matchup Information
Matchup: Edmonton Oilers (33-19-2, 17-6-1 Home) vs. Calgary Flames (27-25-5, 13-12-4 Away)
Venue & Location: Rogers Arena (Edmonton, AB)
Date: Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024
Game Time: 10 p.m. Eastern Time
How to Watch Flames vs Oilers: SN, CBC
Flames vs Oilers Analytical Breakdown
Flames vs Oilers NHL Betting Odds
Flames vs Oilers odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Saturday Feb. 24 at 11:30 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.
Flames vs Oilers Puck Line
Calgary Flames +1.5 (-165)
Edmonton Oilers -1.5 (+145)
Flames vs Oilers Over/Under
Over 6.5 Goals (-120)
Under 6.5 Goals (+104)
Projection: 5.97
Flames vs Oilers Moneyline
Calgary Flames (+145)
Edmonton Oilers (-163)
Projection: Oilers (59%)
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Top Player Projections
Connor McDavid
Shots: 4.03 | Points: 1.88 | Assists: 1.21 |
Leon Draisaitl
Shots: 3.02 | Points: 1.62 | Assists: 0.78 |
Rasmus Andersson
Shots: 1.99 | Points: 0.44 | Assists: 0.32
Flames vs Oilers Projection: The Stars Shine in the Battle of Alberta
The Oilers are playing their third back-to-back on the season this evening and have won after winning both sets earlier this year. The Flames are coming off two huge wins against the Boston Bruins and Winnipeg Jets. The Flames will be without their backbone tonight as Jacob Markstrom is ill and Dan Vladar will start in goal. Vladar has struggled this season and given up 7 more goals than expected. Vladar gave up 2 goals and made 32 saves against Edmonton earlier this season.
Connor McDavid is red hot of late, posting 2+ assists in 4 of his last 5 outings. Coming off two straight losses for the first time since December, the Oilers will turn to McDavid to right the ship against their archrivals and there is no reason to believe he won’t deliver. McDavid has 29 goals and 53 points in 39 games against the Flames in his career and is projected for 1.88 points in tonight’s game and that may be on the low end considering he is facing a backup goaltender.
Top Player Props in Flames vs Oilers (2/24)
Connor McDavid Over 1.5 Points (-115) BOVADA
I have one rule when it comes to the Edmonton Oilers and it is that you do not bet against Connor McDavid. When he’s playing his best, he’s unstoppable. The Oilers need to get back on track and McDavid will lead the charge tonight. I like his goal prop as well, but given how easily he’s racking up the assists, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a three point night for the world’s best hockey player.
Zach Hyman Goal (+130) BOVADA
Hyman has goals in each of the games against Calgary this season and scored in three straight games entering tonight’s matchup. He’s scored in 5 of 9 games in February and is averaging 19 minutes of time on ice playing alongside Connor McDavid in every offensive situation. He’s projected with a 56% to find the back of the net tonight. Plus money is excellent value.
Leon Draisaitl Over 1.5 Points (+140) BOVADA
Draisaitl has registered multi-point efforts in 3 of his last 4 games while averaging 22 minutes of ice time. Over his career, he’s tallied 55 points in 43 games against the Flames and is projected for 1.62 points making the value of this prop, a good bet
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Rachel Doerrie, also known as Nemo, is a good ol’ Canadian, raised in Toronto, the hockey mecca of the world. Her speciality is building models using various nerd math and makes her picks based on the outputs. She’s worked in the NHL and now builds models for NHL, NBA, NFL and MLB. When she’s not nerding out, she’s recording the Staff and Graph Podcast. You can follow her regular socials or the betting instagram @nemobets!
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