By The Numbers: Top Bets on Today’s NHL Games (3/28)

If you want to know what the model is saying about betting on the NHL today, you’ve come to right place! We’re on a heater, with over 10 units of profit in our last few articles and three straight parlay winners. Alex Ovechkin continues his chase for Gretzky’s record, a potential Cup Final preview between Colorado and New York, and a key Pacific Division matchup between Edmonton and Los Angeles. There are 14 games in the NHL tonight, starting at 7PM ET, let’s get in the lab.

With the 2024 #StanleyCup Playoffs set to begin in less than a month (Saturday, April 20), Thursday will see 28 teams hit the ice including every team in the Western Conference.#NHLStats: https://t.co/WAFWqhjl7N pic.twitter.com/lbaKPOnhgn

— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) March 28, 2024

Top Game Lines

St. Louis ML (-132)

After a  brilliant comeback win against the Minnesota Wild, the Blues are 6-3-1 in their last 10 and face the Calgary Flames who have gone off the rails of late and are 3-7 in their last 10. Calgary has been over-reliant on goaltending all season and since trading two of their top defensemen, have really fallen off. Dustin Wolf gets the start tonight, giving Markstrom the night off. Wolf is one of the top goaltending prospects in the game and has been a respectable performer, putting up league average numbers in 11 games this season. Given Calgary’s lack of scoring all season, not having an elite goaltender has predictably led to issues. St. Louis is a long shot to make the playoffs and likely need to win every game to have a chance. The model gives St. Louis a 71% chance to win and that presents value on the implied win probability of 57%.

Nashville ML (-165)

No one should be surprised. We’ve been on the Nashville Express for a while and we will continue to ride until we can’t anymore. Nashville is 16-0-2 and after going down 3-0 in the first period against Vegas on Tuesday, came all the way back to win in OT. Similar to Edmonton’s run earlier this season, this stretch of games has cemented Nashville’s playoff spot and should it continue, may lead to a divisional playoff spot in the Central. The Preds take on the Arizona Coyotes tonight in what should be a battle of goaltending. Connor Ingram’s performance has flown under the radar because of the team in front of him, but he’s saved the 12th most goals above expected among starting goaltenders this season. Juuse Saros has been on a heater since the All-Star break and is a big reason that Nashville has been difficult to score on during their magical run.

Tuesday’s game was high scoring and I do not expect that to be the case this evening. The Coyotes have played in many low scoring affairs of late as they are struggling to score, but managing to keep the puck out of their net with greater success. In a low scoring game, game-breaking talent can be the difference maker. Roman Josi and Filip Forsberg have been two of the best players in the NHL over the last 6 weeks and have scored goals at key times to lead Nashville. They will be the two best skaters tonight. The model gives Nashville a 63% chance to win, while Betalytics has Nashville’s -1.5 line, a B- grade.

Top Player Props

Chicago/Ottawa SGP: Brady Tkachuk 1+ Point & Connor Bedard 1+ Point (+110)

Chicago and Ottawa face-off tonight and while neither team is particularly good, there are betting opportunities. Neither team defends with any level of authority and both teams have offensive firepower. Brady Tkachuk has 1+ point in 4 of 5 games and 7 of 10. He’s consistently in the middle of Ottawa’s offensive structure, including top powerplay minutes, top line matchups and offensive zone starts. Betalytics gives Tkachuk a 78% chance of recording a point tonight, while my model gives him a 74% chance. There’s a lot of juice on this line as a single, but as a parlay piece, it is a good one. Connor Bedard is appointment television and the odds on pick for Rookie of the Year. Both models have Bedard with a 65% chance of regarding a point against Ottawa, who have gone over the listed total in 70% of their last 10 games. Look for a high scoring affair this evening with both players getting on the scoresheet.

Bryan Rust Point (-166)

The Pittsburgh Penguins take on the Columbus Blue Jackets tonight and while the Penguins are worse than many expected, the Blue Jackets are in the running for the first overall pick. While the Penguins are struggling, Bryan Rust has played well on Sidney Crosby’s wing, tallying 7 points in his last 7 games. Betalytics projects him with 70% chance to record a point against Columbus tonight, and my model has it at 69%. The implied win probability based on the line is 59%, making this a 10% edge. Rust is in a great shots on goal match up tonight with Columbus surrendering the most shots to right wingers. He has the best matchup of any player tonight, meaning he will have a ton of scoring opportunities to get on the scoresheet.

Alex Ovechkin Goal (+130)

Are there more sure bets? Yes. Is Sam Reinhart one of the them? Absolutely. But -200 is a lotta juice. Instead, we go with the greatest goal scorer in the history of the sport. Alex Ovechkin has been on tear after an uncharacteristically slow start to the season. Betalytics has him projected with a 48% chance to score, something he’s done in 4 of his last 5 games. In 58 games against Toronto, Ovechkin has tallied 44 goals and 33 assists. Over his career, he’s scored 154 goals in March, the most of any month. He is at his best when the playoffs approach and that is no different this season. He plays nearly every second of every powerplay opportunity that Washington gets, is in his patented “office” and has been ripping bombs from there for two decades. No one has figured out a way to stop it and the Leafs penalty kill has struggled of late. Given Ovechkin’s history against the Leafs, and the fact that Toronto is likely to be missing all of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and Morgan Rielly tonight, it is a recipe for an Ovehckin show. You can take his 1+ Point line, but he’s usually good for a goal against the Leafs.