By The Numbers: Top Bets on Today’s NHL Games (3/26)

If you want to know what the model is saying about betting on the NHL today, you’ve come to right place! We’ve got a matchup with major playoff implications between Washington and Detroit, a contest between Canadian contenders, Edmonton and Winnipeg and Jake Guentzel’s return to Pittsburgh. There are 12 games in the NHL tonight, starting at 7PM ET. We’re on a heater, so let’s keep the math train rolling!

Nine of the top 10 teams in the overall League standings hit the ice Tuesday, including the @NYRangers, @FlaPanthers, @Canes and @NHLBruins who can each clinch a spot in the 2024 #StanleyCup Playoffs.#NHLStats: https://t.co/t3rjXnPyd0 pic.twitter.com/zQshLfbSAW

— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) March 26, 2024

Nashville ML (-145)

We are betting on the Nashville Predators, this is a recording. The league’s hottest team gets Vegas on the second half of a back to back with travel, after Vegas’ overtime win in St. Louis on Monday evening. Nashville hasn’t lost a game in regulation since February 15th, nearly 6 weeks ago. In that span, they’ve won 15 games and lost 2 games in overtime. These teams are firmly in the playoff picture and Vegas is fighting with Los Angeles for the final Pacific Division playoff spot. Neither team is struggling to score and both teams are playing good defensive hockey. Both teams are struggling on the powerplay and thriving on the penalty kill, don’t expect many powerplay points tonight. Nashville is leading the league in 5v5 scoring over the last month and has averaged 3.4 goals per game at 5v5 over their last 5 games.

Broadly speaking, these are two evenly matched teams, when healthy. Vegas is not healthy, missing Mark Stone and Tomas Hertl, two key members of their top-6. Nashville’s top players have been red hot, leading the team on the franchise’s longest point streak. Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi and Gustav Nyquist have been piling up the points and Josi finds himself on the fringes of the Norris conversation. Tonight, Nashville is expected to take advantage of the schedule and win a crucial game against the Golden Knights. Betalytics has Nashville with an Expected Win% of 61%, while my model has it at 59%. While there isn’t much value on the current line, the back to back with travel against the league’s hottest team is a major factor in backing the Nashville to win.

Top Player Props

Nathan Mackinnon Over 4.5 Shots (-125)

Nate the Great is chasing Wayne Gretzky’s record. No, that is not a typo. Mackinnon is attempting to record a point in every home game, this season. Gretzky did it 40 times in a season, while Mackinnon is trying to get to 41. Tonight, the Avalanche take on the Montreal Canadiens in Denver. Mackinnon has feasted on lesser opponents this season and recorded 1 assist and 7 shots on goal in their one meeting earlier this year. He’s hit his line in 7 of his last 10 games and 6+ shots in 6 straight home games. The Avalanche are in the heat of a battle for the top of the Central Division and are one of the best teams in the NHL. Montreal struggles to keep opposing centers from shooting the puck, giving up the most to that position in the NHL. Mackinnon is routinely at the top of the league in shot attempts and there is no reason to think the league’s MVP frontrunner will be held in check tonight. His assist prop is too juiced, but his points line is worth a look.

Jake Guentzel Over 2.5 Shots (-190)

Jake Guentzel makes his return to Pittsburgh tonight after being traded to Carolina at the trade deadline. The Penguins are coming off a 4-0 collapse in Colorado, where Guentzel’s former linemate Sidney Crosby, recorded 4 points. The Hurricanes shoot the puck a ton and Guentzel has fit right in. Compounding this, Pittsburgh has given up the third most shots to left wingers over the last few weeks. Jake Guentzel plays left wing. He is projected for 3.45 shots tonight and that does not consider the narrative. When a player returns to a building they’ve starred in and won Stanley Cups, there is extra motivation. The Hurricanes are keenly aware of this and will want to give Guentzel a return to remember. Guentzel plays on the top powerplay unit and has hit this line in 4 of his last 5 games. Guentzel for a point tonight is another prop to watch given the narrative and Pittsburgh’s inability to shut down teams with speed.

Fade The Sharks Parlay

Jason Robertson Point, Jamie Benn Point, Wyatt Johnston Over 2.5 Shots (+305)

We hit the FTS Parlay last week and we’re going back to the well tonight. Shaggy takes the Sharks opponent -1.5 in every game. The Sharks have lost by 2+ in 6 of their last 10 and have given up 4+ goals in 8 of their last 10. On the other side of the matchup, Dallas is in the thick of a divisional title race and has scored 4+ goals in 7 of their last 10 games. To build this parlay, you can pick your poison as Miro Heiskanen is another option to include. Jason Robertson has points in 8 of his last 10 games and leads the Stars with 72 points. Robertson plays on the top powerplay unit, the first line and gets all the primary scoring opportunities. Roberston is projected with a more than 70% chance of recording a point tonight, with the assist being the most likely outcome. Jamie Benn has points in 9 of his last 10 games and is feasting on opponents with Wyatt Johnston. The two of them make up the last 2 legs of the parlay against the Sharks tonight. Benn’s hot streak is made possible by Johnston’s ability to drive play. Benn plays on Dallas’ top powerplay unit, which is averaging nearly 5 minutes of PP time per game, lately. Betalytics gives Benn a 58% chance of recording a point, while my model has him with a 75% chance to record a point. Johnston has hit this line in 6 of 10 games and has a fantastic matchup tonight. The Sharks lack depth and Johnston should sail over the line tonight. The Sharks give up the most shots in the league by a wide margin and the Stars have been putting the puck on net more often in recent games. The combination of the Sharks poor play and Dallas’ need to keep pace in the division title race should be a recipe for a parlay win tonight.