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By The Numbers: Top Bets on Today’s NHL Games (3/23)
Written by: Rachel Doerrie
Last Updated:
Read Time: 8 minutes
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If you want to know what the model is saying about betting on the NHL today, you’ve come to right place! March Madness has lived up to the hype and there are plenty of betting opportunities across sports. We’ve got some great matchups in the NHL today with the McDavid and the Oilers taking on Matthews and the Leafs, Florida taking on the Rangers and another edition of “Slackin for Macklin” between San Jose and Chicago. There are 11 games in the NHL today starting at 1 PM ET and we swept the board on Thursday, so let’s keep it rolling!
Winnipeg Jets ML (-135)
The New York Islanders are stumbling in a major way, losing 6 straight games, and sit 5 points out of the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The puck drops on an early afternoon game at 1pm and is expected to be a battle of elite goaltenders. Connor Hellebuyck is running away with the Vezina trophy this season and Ilya Sorokin has had a down season. While he is not performing as consistently as he has in the past, he’s shown he is more than capable of stealing games for the Islanders. There are likely to need him to do exactly that if they are to snap their 6-game losing streak and get back on track.
Unfortunately, the Islanders are going up against a team in the heat of a divisional playoff battle at the top of the Western Conference and coming off a poor performance against the New Jersey Devils. The Jets will be looking to rebound after Thursday’s loss in the Garden State in order to keep peace with Dallas and Colorado at the top of the Central Division. Both teams have struggled to score of late, recording 3+ goals in 70% or less of their last 10 games. Both teams have been stingy defensively and playing in low scoring games, which is exactly what to expect in today’s game. Lower scoring games favor Winnipeg who are one of the best defensive teams in the league. The Jets have a 61% chance to win by the model and a 56% chance of winning according to Betalytics. Count on Winnipeg’s goaltending and goal scoring talent to be the difference in this one. Scheifele, Connor and Ehlers are all in good spots for points and shots.
Nashville Predators ML (-165)
The Predators remain the hottest teams in the NHL and they cashed with ease on Thursday, we’re going back to Broadway today. Nashville is 8-0-2 in their last 10 games and have a franchise record, 16 straight games without losing in regulation. They are playing at home against the Detroit Red Wings, with both teas fighting for Wild Card spots in their respective conferences. A lot of Nashville’s success comes down their defensive play and goaltending. While Nashville has scored 3+ goals in 9 of their last 10, they have only given up 3+ goals on two occasions and keep teams to 2 or less in 50% of their last 10. When a team only gives up 2 goals in a league that averages 6 goals per game, that’s a winning recipe. Saros has found his groove in goal and the Predators are getting serious contributions from Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg and Gustav Nyquist.
The Red Wings have given up 3+ goals in 9 of their last 10 games. In tight games, the better defensive team has the advantage. Given Nashville’s ability to score and Detroit’s struggles to keep the puck out of their net, it could be a tough night for the Red Wings. Playing in Nashville, one of the loudest buildings in the NHL, the Red Wings will need their top line to lead them to victory. Dylan Larkin returned from injury and had an immediate impact for Detroit, after they struggled mightily without him. If Detroit is going to have a chance in this one, they will need their goalie to out duel Saros and their top line to outscore the red hot Predators. Nashville has won 7 of their last 10 games by 2 or more, making a regulation win to take the juice out of the ML play, a good option. The model gives the Preds a 70% chance to win, while Betalytics has them with a 63% chance to win with value on the under and puck line of -1.5.
Zach Hyman Goal (+120)
Zach Hyman is two goals from reaching 50 for this first time in his NHL career. Good thing he’s from Toronto, used to play for the Maple Leafs and is playing the Leafs tonight…in Toronto. If you know a single thing about Leafs history, you know they have a knack for giving up milestones to former players or players from Toronto. It is their modus operandi. Hyman is +800 to hit the 50-goal mark tonight and frankly, that’s worth some beans. McDavid is from the Toronto area and always plays well against the Leafs. Rest assure, the man who is 15 assists from hitting 100(!) for the season will be looking for his line mate and fellow Toronto kid, tonight. Hyman plays the net front on Edmonton’s vaunted powerplay and often finds him self banging in rebounds, tipping pucks or having pucks ricochet off him and into the net. There are so many opportunities for Hyman to find the back of the net tonight and let me let you in on a secret: when a guy is close to a milestone and playing against his former team or playing in his hometown, his teammates look for him more than they usually would. Hyman has the double whammy and you can bet McDavid and Draisaitl will be looking to set up Hyman against Toronto in a game filled with superstars.
Jack Eichel Over 3.5 Shots (-160)
Fade the Blue Jackets. They are one of the worst defensive teams in the league and give up a ton of shots. Eichel has been fantastic for the Golden Knights of late and cashed out on Thursday with 7 shots! He’s in an easier matchup tonight in a critical game for the Golden Knights who need points to keep their second spot in the Wild Card race. Bruce Cassidy has shown that he will lean on his top forwards down the stretch in the past and tonight should be no different. Expect him to roll Eichel’s line with Jonathan Marchessault out there early and often against Columbus. Eichel is projected for 4.95 shots in the model and BetAlytics has him with 4.89. He’s hit this line in 8 of his last 10 and excels against lower end teams, racking up the shots. He’s a good ladder candidate tonight. Another option is to parlay hit shot line with Alex Nylander’s shots, who has been a bright spot for the Blue Jackets over the last couple of weeks.
Preds Parlay
Roman Josi Point + Filip Forsberg Point (+110)
Two of the top plays today are playing for the Predators. Shocking that the hottest team in the NHL is a gold mine for player props, right? Both players have juiced lines, so why not put them together. The other option is to play both as singles to get an assist, as the model likes that as well. Let’s keep it simple and take both Josi and Forsberg to record a point in this afternoon’s contest against the Red Wings. Josi has a point in 8 of his last 10, while Forsberg has a point in 9 of his last 10. Forsberg has 5 goals in his last 5 games and is averaging 2 points per game over that span. He’s been one of the hottest scorers in the league over the last month and the model gives him an 80% chance of recording a point. Josi has been incredible over the last month for Nashville and is on the edges of the Norris conversation. The model gives him a 73% chance to record a point tonight and 63% chance of recording an assist.
There is a step-up option in the parlay. Adding Gustav Nyquist for a point makes the parlay +218 and Nyquist has a 63% chance to record a point, according to the model. BetAlytics has Nyquist with a 60% chance of recording a point. He’s recorded a point in 4 of his last 5 and 7 of his last 10. It’s a good option if you’re feeling extra spicy this afternoon.
Rachel Doerrie, also known as Nemo, is a good ol’ Canadian, raised in Toronto, the hockey mecca of the world. Her speciality is building models using various nerd math and makes her picks based on the outputs. She’s worked in the NHL and now builds models for NHL, NBA, NFL and MLB. When she’s not nerding out, she’s recording the Staff and Graph Podcast. You can follow her regular socials or the betting instagram @nemobets!
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