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By The Numbers: NHL Western Conference Betting Preview
Written by: Rachel Doerrie
Last Updated:
Read Time: 9 minutes
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It is the best time of the hockey season, the first round of the playoffs is upon us. The first round of the NHL playoffs is the best round. Teams are the freshest they will be, the chaos meter is cranked to 11 and the rulebook goes out the window. With the Western Conference side getting underway and series prices out, we’ll dive into the numbers to find out what to expect from each series and some wagers to place.
Dallas Stars (1) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (8)
This is expected to be one of the best series in the first round because two Stanley Cup Contenders, including the reigning Champs go head to head. Vegas looks to be getting Mark Stone and Alex Pietrangelo back in their lineup. Conveniently, two of their best players will be ready to go in the early stages of the series after providing cap relief through the regular season. When healthy, these are two of the best teams in the NHL and while we’re lucky to get this series, it is one that is best served for late May in a Conference Final.
What to expect, well, when healthy – we’re talking about two of the best teams in the league. Dallas has less star power, but is the most complete team from top to bottom on the roster. Vegas has the best depth on the blue line in the NHL, and will need to rely on their ability to deploy Theodore, Pietrangelo and Hanifin on different pairings to ensure a high-end defenceman is always on the ice. While Hill and Thompson did enough to get Vegas into the playoffs, if Jake Oettinger can continue to stay in his groove, Dallas has the goaltending advantage. The series will be won or lost on each team’s ability to capitalize on mistakes. Neither team makes many of them, meaning the team who is able to take advantage of their scoring chances and power plays will likely be the team that wins. Expect this series to be a long one, at least 6 or 7 games and a real coin flip on who goes through. The model leans Dallas, but not enough to be confident. Taking Eichel to be the top point-getter in the series is the best bet here.
Winnipeg Jets (2) vs. Colorado Avalanche (4)
A battle of…two teams who wouldn’t be facing each other if the league would do their playoffs properly by ranking 1 through 8, I digress. The Central Division has three bonafide Cup Contenders, so naturally at least one will go home in the first round. While the season series results may be lopsided, the run of play was not. Winnipeg’s goaltending is the point of major difference here and is eerily similar to Toronto vs. Boston. Colorado is the better, deeper team with more talent from top to bottom, but their goaltending is questionable at best. Winnipeg has talent, but not to the degree that Colorado does. They do have the NHL’s best goaltender this season and given Colorado’s team SV% is 27th, while Winnipeg’s is 1st, that could play a major role in the series.
The goaltending alone can win you a series. But, that is unlikely here. This is another series that the model has as a coin flip. Winnipeg has struggled to win at home in the playoffs, while Colorado has not. The Avalanche are coming off playoff disappointment last season and will be looking to win their second Stanley Cup in 3 seasons. Colorado’s special teams, specifically the powerplay, has the potential to be a difference maker in the series. Winnipeg’s penalty kill has struggled and though Winnipeg has good defensive metrics at 5v5, they stumbled through March. To win, Winnipeg needs Hellebuyck to make timely saves and capitalize on their scoring opportunities when they arrive. For Colorado to win, their stars need to be near a point per game and stable goaltending. This is going to be a tightly contested series with plenty of close games. In lieu of a series bet, where Mackinnon as top points scorer is the clear bet, taking this series to go 7 games is the most valuable play.
Vancouver Canucks (3) vs. Nashville Predators (6)
Two of the best defencemen in the league this year go head to head in the first round. Roman Josi and the Preds caught lightning in a bottle and soared up the standings in the back half of the season. The Canucks, to the surprise of many, finished first in the Pacific Division. While their play dropped off over a few weeks in February/March, they have the pieces to beat Nashville. The story of this series will be two elite goaltenders and two elite defencemen facing off. Quinn Hughes was the NHL’s best rearguard this season and both he and Josi will be key offensive drivers for their teams in the series. Both power plays hinge on their ability to skate pucks up ice, walk the blue line and create scoring opportunities for their teammates. While neither powerplay is anything to write home about, both have the potential to catch fire and be a difference maker in the series.
A key stats to note is that Vancouver’s center depth is much better than Nashville’s. If Vancouver’s depth players like Lindholm, Joshua, and Mikheyev can find ways to contribute, it will make life quite difficult for the Predators who lack depth up front. The teams are largely similar on the back end, where the first pair is anchored by an elite talent, and there isn’t much else behind them. There is a distinct possibility that this series comes down to the aforementioned depth players, where Vancouver has the advantage. Nashville’s top line as dominant this season and will be a formidable task for the Canucks to keep in check. If they can, that will go along way to a series win. The model projects this series to be a long one, with the most valuable bets being Canucks in 6 or Predators in 7.
Edmonton Oilers (5) vs. Los Angeles Kings (7)
Nuclear weapons vs. depth is the story of Edmonton and LA. Edmonton’s top players (McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman, Bouchard) all had excellent seasons from December, onwards. Bouchard is in the Norris conversation, McDavid in the Hart, Hyman finished with nearly 60 goals and Draisaitl was a powerplay machine. The Oilers offence at 5v5 and on the powerplay is one of best in the league, as expected. They are top heavy and that is where LA may be able to exploit them. If Kopitar and Danualt can shut down the best players, the Kings have enough depth with the likes of Dubois, Laferriere and Fiala to take advantage of a weaker bottom-6. Keeping the Oilers at bay is no easy task and as many coaches have said, you need to limit the quality of the opportunities, but they are going to get them at some point.
Rachel Doerrie, also known as Nemo, is a good ol’ Canadian, raised in Toronto, the hockey mecca of the world. Her speciality is building models using various nerd math and makes her picks based on the outputs. She’s worked in the NHL and now builds models for NHL, NBA, NFL and MLB. When she’s not nerding out, she’s recording the Staff and Graph Podcast. You can follow her regular socials or the betting instagram @nemobets!
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