By The Numbers: NHL Best Bets (5/3)

We’ve got two elimination games this evening, meaning the pressure is ratcheted up and the best players will be leaned on heavily. It’s a fantastic opportunity to find some best bets in the Western Conference matchups. Can either Nashville or Vegas force a Game 7? Maybe both? That would certainly be fun! Looking at the numbers, there are some good spots for tonight’s matchups.

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Vegas Moneyline (-105)

We all agree that Vegas losing four straight and three straight at home is hard to fathom, right? Simply cannot happen. It shouldn’t. Is Dallas the better team? Yes. But, most importantly, the goaltending. Jake Oettinger is locked in for Dallas, while Vegas is debating who to start. That’s not great. However, the atmosphere in Vegas is something to behold. Vegas gets up for those game and while they lost games 3 & 4, losing in overtime in game 3 and holding a lead on two separate occasions in game 4. By no means are they getting run out of the building, and every game has been very competitive. In Vegas tonight, expect the Golden Knights to come out with a blistering start. If they can get Dallas on the back foot, that is a recipe for success. They need to keep the thunderous crowd engaged and an early goal or sustained offensive zone time will do exactly that.

There is absolutely nothing better than Game 7. Nothing in sports is better than hearing those two words. A game 7 between two contenders in the first round? Sign me up immediately. Vegas knows that it is Cup or Bust, from the owner down. He wants and expects to win a few playoff rounds every season. Losing four straight after stealing both games in Dallas to start would be unacceptable. Vegas is filled with veterans who have been through tough series before, they’re seasoned in terms of playoff experience and will need to lean on that to force a game 7 in 2024. I expect all of those things to happen, meaning we will have a game 7 on Sunday.

Nashville/Vancouver Under 5.5 (-115)

Nashville is another team that I can’t see losing three straight games at home. They’ve won two in Vancouver and head home to try and force game 7. Truthfully, Nashville should be up 3-2. Instead, Colton Sissons hit the empty net post and the Canucks stormed back to win in overtime, taking a stronghold on the series. Nashville has been the better team for large parts of this series and the Canucks are battling injuries to their best players. Thatcher Demko is out, Arturs Silovs is starting tonight’s matchup. Quinn Hughes is clearly feeling it with obvious signs such as dwindling minutes, less physicality and being on the receiving end of more hits than usual. Elias Pettersson is being held together with duct tape and pipe cleaners at this point, where it is abundantly clear that he can’t shoot the puck with the usual oomph. That spells trouble.

I’m with NZ here, backing the Preds to push this thing to 7. More importantly, the under. This has been a block fest of a series, with Vancouver barely getting to 20 shots in a few games and falling below that, as well. Saros is an excellent goaltender, Preds defencemen are wearing pucks and they’ll be deserpate to do the same in tonight’s game. On the other side, Silovs has been good since coming in, and the while the Canucks don’t hold Nashville below the 20 shots threshold, they are fronting pucks. The last thing the Canucks want to do is head back to Vancouver with a game seven to play. Rick Tocchet will have them ready defensively, meaning we should expect a ton of shot blocking, tight checking in all areas of the ice and no risk taking. When teams lock it down, it tends to be a good recipe for the under, see: Toronto/Boston. Backing the under and if you don’t love that, take Under 6.5 and NSH +1.5 at +100.