By the Numbers: Best Bets on Today’s NHL Games (3/30)

It is the last slate of Saturday games in March and we’ve got a great day in store! If you want to know what the model is saying about betting on the NHL today, you’ve come to right place! We’re on a heater, with over 10 units of profit in our last few articles and four straight parlay winners. Some key matchups to watch in the playoff races between Nashville and Colorado, Vegas and Minnesota, and Islanders against Tampa Bay. There are 15 games in the NHL today, starting at 12:30 PM ET, let’s get in the lab.

Saturday begins an @NHLNetwork Showcase that could be a First Round preview as the @DetroitRedWings, battling for a Wild Card spot, and @FlaPanthers, jockeying for a No. 1 seed, meet for a matinée in Sunrise (also on @Sportsnet).#NHLStats: https://t.co/Lbap2vqlVK pic.twitter.com/FyV80v5q9s

— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) March 30, 2024

Top Game Lines

New York Rangers 60 min ML (-120)

The President’s Trophy leading New York Rangers are in Arizona this afternoon to face off against the Coyotes. It is a 3PM local start in Tempe this afternoon and the Coyotes are coming off a magical week for the franchise. Josh Doan, son of Coyotes legend Shane Doan, debuted and scored twice in a 6-2 win over Columbus on Tuesday and the Coyotes snapped Nashville’s 18-game point streak with an 8-4 win on Thursday night. Wins have been few and far between for the Coyotes this season and after an emotional roller coaster of a week, this afternoon is unlikely to be a fun one. The Rangers come in with a 71% chance to win tonight and should have no issues dispatching the Coyotes in regulation. New York is 8-2 in their last 10 games and seem to have found their form heading into the playoffs. Expect Adam Fox, Chris Kreider and Artemi Panarin to find the scoresheet this evening in what should be a dominant outing from the Rangers. The money line is juiced to -180, but that line has value. I’m taking the Rangers in regulation and a little parlay sprinkle on ML + Fox Point + Kreider point for today’s matchup.

Tampa Bay/New York Under 6 (+100)

Death, taxes, the Tampa Bay Lightning rounding into playoff form as the season comes to a close. The Lightning have been excellent, going 8-1-1 in their last 10 and are right on the heels of the Toronto Maple Leafs for the 3rd divisional spot. The Islanders are struggling and have lost ground in the playoff race over the last fortnight. Both teams sit 4 points back of the teas they are chasing for playoff positioning and the Islanders need to pass Detroit and Washington to get in. Both teams play sound defensive hockey and Varlamov has 3 wins and a .914 SV% in his last 4 starts. Tampa Bay has scored 3+ goals in 10 straight games and kept teams to 2 or less in 7 of those games – a recipe for success. The Islanders are really struggling to score and that won’t get any easier in tonight’s matchup, where they’ll need to play excellent defensive hockey and capitalize on scoring chances as they happen. Given the desperation for both teams and the recent run of play, Betalytics projects 5.4 goals in this matchup with a 58% chance of hitting the under, a great edge on a +100 line. This line has value to -125 and is playable to -130.

Top Player Props

Zach Hyman Over 3.5 Shots (-145)

No need to overthink this one. The Oilers are playing the lowly Anaheim Ducks in an afternoon matinee that is a 12PM local start. Zach Hyman has been hot of late and has the best shots on goal matchup on the entire slate today. He’s averaged 4.5 shots per game over his last 1o and is projected for 4.68 against Anaheim. Betalytics projects him for similar and gives him a 66% chance of hitting his line with a B+ value grade. Hyman has hit this line in 4 of his last 5 and thrives against teams who bleed shots (the Ducks). Given the powerplay opportunities and dominance of Edmonton’s top line, expect Hyman to be all around the net, picking up rebounds and driving the net off the rush. He should have no issues clearing his line in today’s matchup and is a great ladder candidate.

Adam Fox 1+ Assist (-132)

Following the expected game script and the recent heater that Ada mFox is on, this line is too hard to ignore. The Rangers offensive dynamo has assists in 4 of his last 5 and 10 of his last 15 from the blue line. He’s creating a ton of scoring opportunities for Ranger forwards and the combination of a red hot powerplay against a poor penalty kill is a recipe for success. The Rangers powerplay is clicking at 43% over the last fortnight, good for best in the league over that stretch. Fox has played a key role in that and given his overall involvement in the Rangers offensive scheme, he’s a prime candidate to hit this line with ease. Betalytics projects him with a 60% chance of hitting his line and a B value grade on the line, which is playable to -150. My model gives him a 64% chance of hitting his line with a A grade for matchup and trend. Fox is one of the best defencemen in the league and when he’s hot, its’a gravy train you ride until it stops. Don’t expect that train to stop tonight.

Sidney Crosby Point + Adrian Kempe Point (+107)

Let’s start with the easy one. Sidney Crosby is averaging 2 points per game against Columbus in their last 10 games. Not one, TWO. He’s averaged 1.2 assists over that span, so if you want to remove the juice on his singular point, that’s a good way to do it. Crosby loves playing the Blue Jackets and there is very little they can do to stop him. Crosby has recoded 2 points in 3 of his last 5 and 14 points in his last 8 games. He’s red hot and following the trend, there is no reason to believe Crosby won’t find the score sheet *at least* once today. I will be taking his over 1.5 points and he is an option for 2+ assists today. Bet it and forget it. The model’s top bet tonight when accounting for xWin%, matchup and trend is Adrain Kempe for a point. Los Angeles is in a heated battle for 3rd place in the Pacific and needs to beat Calgary tonight. He’s recorded 12 points in his last 10 games and LA has lost every game where he failed to record a point in March. As he goes, the Kings go and the Kings need to go tonight. The probability of a Kempe point is 77% in the model and 61% from Betalytics. While that is a discrepancy, both models project Kempe to record a point and see value in this parlay at plus money.