By The Numbers: Best Bets in the NHL Today (4/27)

It is the last Saturday with four NHL games, the betting options are dwindling, but we’ve got some best bets as always. There are two opportunities for sweeps tonight as the New York Islanders and Tampa Bay Lightning look to stave off elimination from the Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers. In the model we trust, it hasn’t let us down, let’s get in the lab and cook the books.

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Jake Debrusk 1+ Point (+100)

The Leaf killer is back on his stuff this spring, recording points in each of the first three games. Debrusk has been one of Boston’s best players as the series hits its fourth game, and there is no reason to believe anything will change tonight. We’re staying away from any game lines because starting goaltenders are unconfirmed and William Nylander’s insertion into the lineup is expected to have an enormous impact. Debrusk’s line has value somehow, with Betalytics projecting Debrusk at 54% to record a point. With that, this line is playable to -110 area, meaning we’re getting 10 points of value, at least. Between the chances he gets on the powerplay and even strength, as well as Toronto’s inability to stop him or Marchand, Debrusk is a key player stepping up in a big way. He plays in key offensive situations and while Samsonov has been fine, he’s had no answer for the Leaf Killer. Following the trend and the projection, and the cursed Leafs narrative, it is more likely than not that Debrusk finds the scoresheet tonight.

Sam Reinhart Over 2.5 Shots (-180)

Florida has a chance to sweep their state rivals tonight and while that is unlikely, it won’t be for lack of trying. Reinhart and Barkov have done a great job preventing Kucherov from impacting the series in a meaningful way. I’m of the belief that Florida will be playing from behind tonight, given that Tampa getting swept is something no one believes will happen. In that case, Reinhart will be leaned heavily upon to create offence after finishing top-3 in goal scoring this season. His line is heavily juiced, but frankly, combining it with 1+ point or playing it at over 3.5. Betalytics has him with a 70% chance to hit this line and my model projects him for 3.82 shots, making this playable. Reinhart has hit this line in 5 consecutive games and 9 of his last 10. Tampa hasn’t been able to slow him down making him a great ladder option for this afternoon’s contest.

Steven Stamkos Over 1+ Point (-160)

Speaking of players following the game script, Steven Stamkos is that guy. He’s been one of Tampa’s lone bright spots in the series, tallying four points in the first three games. Tonight could be his last game in a Lightning uniform, something that is hard to fathom. He has a knack for showing up in the biggest moments, be it the Stanley Cup Finals, game tying goals, or lifting his team to victory with their backs against the wall. There is no more “back against the wall” situation than being down 3-0 in a playoff series, as a captain, when you don’t know if you will be re-signed. Stamkos has points in 9 of his last 10 games, and 13 of his last 15. He’s red hot and Betalytics gives him a 69% chance to record a point tonight. NICE!

Jack Eichel Over 3.5 Shots (-110)

After taking two games in Dallas, Vegas has the chance to put a stranglehold on the series tonight at home. In one of the best atmospheres in the NHL, Vegas will be rocking tonight and hasn’t seen a playoff game since the Golden Knights hoisted Lord Stanley at home nearly 10 months ago. Eichel has been fantastic for the Golden Knights in the playoffs since joining the club, and has four points through the first two games of the series. Eichel has 5+ shots in 4 of his last 5 games and is particularly prolific at home. With better matchups, Eichel should have slightly more space to operate and take advantage of opportunities. He’s a huge part of the offensive scheme in Vegas, primary shooter at even strength and on powerplay, making him a prime candidate to shoot the bright lights out on the Vegas Strip tonight. Back him to go over and ladder him to 5 or 6 – lines he consistently hits.