By The Numbers: Best Bets for Today’s NHL Games (4/16)

It all comes down to tonight. The Eastern Conference playoff race has four teams for one spot. Any kind of Washington win sees them make the playoffs. Philadelphia needs to beat Washington in regulation to have a chance. Detroit needs to beat Montreal. Pittsburgh is off, but would be eliminated if Washington or Detroit win, this evening. Auston Matthews tries to hit 70 goals against Florida and become the first player to do it in three decade. There are 8 games on the schedule tonight, let’s get in the lab and turn on the money machine!

SOME of what's at stake Tuesday:
– @Capitals or @DetroitRedWings can clinch last playoff spot
– @NHLBruins or @FlaPanthers will lock up division title
– @DallasStars can clinch No. 1 in West
– At least 2 more First Round matchups will be locked#NHLStats: https://t.co/DX3k1LsF9f pic.twitter.com/9bKUqR228O

— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) April 16, 2024

If you’re interested in getting the best edges on the lines and the inspiration for these betting pieces, you can get access to all the data and models at BetAlytics!

Best Game Bets

Carolina -1.5 (+105)

The Hurriances are expected to rest a few players in tonight’s matchup, but they are better in every facet of the game. The Canes are more than 80% to win tonight and as they prepare for the playoffs, they’ll want to go in on a high note. The Blue Jackets have been one of the worst NHL teams all season long and Carolina has beat them on all three previous occasions. The two most recent meetings ended in 4-2 and 3-0 wins. Both clear the puck line and went under the number.

If the puck line is too risky for you, a parlay of Carolina in regulation and under 6.5 is valid option. That option removes the ML juice and teases the number up by a half to get a playable number on the parlay. The Canes should have no issue dispatching Columbus tonight, given their propensity to give up goals in bunches and Carolina’s ability to shut things down. This is a dry run before the playoffs and you can bet that Rod Brind’Amour will expect full defensive output from his club.

Best Player Bets

Jack Eichel Over 3.5 Shots (-145)

Jack Eichel has a really favourable matchup against Chicago and should exceed 3.5 shots. As the focal point of Vegas’ offensive schemes, Eichel consistently hits his line as a primary powerplay driver and middle driver. Facing the Chicago Blackhawks, one of the league’s worst teams defensively, Eichel’s propensity to generate scoring opportunities is likely to escalate. Moreover, Eichel’s hunger to lead his team to victory in the race for the final Pacific Division playoff spot should fuel him to pepper the net with shots. His adept puck-handling and keen offensive instincts position him to exploit gaps in the Blackhawks’ defense, allowing him to create more scoring chances. He’s projected for 4.37 shots tonight in my model, and Betalytics has him to easily clear the listed line. Back Eichel, whose team has a lot to play for tonight, against the lowly Hawks.

Alex Debrincat Over 2.5 Shots (-155)

It’s do or die for Detroit and in a rare scheduling quirk, they play the same team on back to back nights. The Red Wings head to Montreal with a chance to make the playoffs. Last night, Debrincat was a major reason Detroit came back and won in overtime against Montreal. He’s playing top line minutes with Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond, and the trio has been excellent over the last few weeks. Debrincat is projected for 3.37 shots tonight, well over the 2.5 line. Detroit is desperate and given Debrincat’s role as the primary shooter, expect him to be peppering the net with shots tonight. He will be relied upon heavily to lift Detroit to victory tonight and this line feels low against Montreal, who couldn’t stop him last night. Set it and forget it!

JT Miller Point + Sam Reinhart Point (+102)

Combining JT Miller and Sam Reinhart in a parlay to each record at least one point tonight means you get two of the best player bets with less juice. Miller consistently contributes offensively with his playmaking abilities, scoring touch and tenacity on loose pucks. Facing a Pacific Division rival with the chance to lock up the division, Miller is positioned to exploit scoring opportunities, whether through setting up teammates or finding the back of the net himself. He’s projected with a more than 70% chance to hit this line versus Calgary.

Sam Reinhart, a two-way dynamo for the Florida Panthers, boasts offensive prowess and notched his first career 50-goal season in 2023-2024. Matched against a likely playoff opponent in Toronto, Reinhart is primed to capitalize on scoring chances and contribute on the scoresheet. The Panthers have a shot to win the division, but need a win tonight. Reinhart is another player with a more than 70% xWin projection and has been excellent against the Leafs in his career.

Combining these two players in a parlay takes the juice out of the bets for two of the most consistent point producers in the NHL this season. Both have something to play for and are relied upon heavily by their coaches. They will get more than enough opportunity to find the scoresheet tonight.