Timberwolves vs Pelicans Prediction, Odds & Picks | NBA Betting (Dec. 11): Minnesota’s Defense Pays Off

Monday, Dec. 11’s NBA slate is loaded with 13 matchups, including one at Smoothie King Center between the surging Minnesota Timberwolves and the New Orleans Pelicans.

see ya in NOLA. pic.twitter.com/o80b3pt6WM

— Minnesota Timberwolves (@Timberwolves) December 10, 2023

The Timberwolves continued to be the team to beat out West, extending their winning streak to six games with Friday’s 127-103 victory over the Memphis Grizzlies. On the flip side, the Pelicans could use a bounce-back showing after falling 133-89 to the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA In-Season Tournament semifinals.

Despite their strong start to the year, the Timberwolves are currently tied with the LA Clippers for the eighth-best odds (+2200) to win the 2023-24 NBA Finals on Bovada. Meanwhile, the Pelicans sit at +6000 (15th) to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy for the first time in franchise history.

Without wasting any more time, let’s dive into this betting preview, which includes my Timberwolves vs Pelicans prediction and best bets, as well as everything else you need to know tonight.

Timberwolves vs Pelicans Tonight (Dec. 11)

Timberwolves vs Pelicans Matchup Information

• Matchup: Minnesota Timberwolves (17-4, 7-3 Away) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (12-11, 8-4 Home)
• Venue & Location: Smoothie King Center (New Orleans, LA)
• Date: Monday, Dec. 11, 2023
• Game Time: 8 p.m. Eastern Time
• Timberwolves vs Pelicans TV Channel Info: NBA League Pass, Bally Sports New Orleans

Timberwolves vs Pelicans Odds & Spread

NBA game odds courtesy of Bovada as of Monday, Dec. 11 at 10:35 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Timberwolves vs Pelicans Spread

• Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5 (-110)
• New Orleans Pelicans -3.5 (-110)

Timberwolves vs Pelicans Over/Under

• Over 222.5 Points (-110)
• Under 222.5 Points (-110)

Timberwolves vs Pelicans Moneyline

• Minnesota Timberwolves (+135)
• New Orleans Pelicans (-160)

---

2023-24 NBA Futures Betting Articles

• NBA In-Season Tournament Success Boosts Awards Odds for Haliburton, Reaves
• 2024 NBA Championship Winner Odds, Favorites, and Predictions
• 2023/24 NBA Awards, Predictions & Best Bets
• NBA Scoring Leader Odds
• 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Divisional Preview, Predictions, & Best Bets
• 2023 NBA Western Conference Divisional Preview, Predictions, & Best Bets

---

Timberwolves vs Pelicans Betting Trends

• Minnesota is 7-1 straight up in its last eight road games.
• New Orleans is 7-3 straight up in its last 10 games played in December.
• Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. New Orleans.
• New Orleans is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games.
• The total hit the Under in four of Minnesota’s last six games.
• The total hit the Over in 14 of New Orleans’ last 17 home games vs. Minnesota.

Timberwolves vs Pelicans Prediction & Pick (Dec. 11)

Even though they’re tonight’s betting favorites, it’s no secret that the Pelicans need a better performance than we saw in their latest outing if they hope to beat the Timberwolves tonight.

The Pelicans couldn’t do anything to stop the Lakers on Thursday, allowing the latter to score 133 points on .547/.486/.759 splits. For reference, New Orleans only shot the ball 35.8% from the floor and 22.6% from the three-point line, playing a huge role in the team finishing with 89 points.

Needless to say, the home team needs a stronger effort on both sides of the ball tonight. While the T-Wolves only score an average of 113.0 PPG this season (19th), they’ve finished with 119-plus points in each of their last four road games. In fact, the 122.5 PPG they averaged during that span would rank sixth-best if that was their season-long number.

Defensively, no team is better than Minnesota. The Timberwolves allow an NBA-low 105.2 PPG, which includes holding their opponents to 42.8% shooting from the field (1st) and 33.6% from behind the arc (3rd).

In theory, playing at home should give the Pelicans a bit of an edge. After all, they’re 8-4 SU (9-3 ATS) at Smoothie King Center thus far this season and have covered the spread in seven consecutive home outings.

At the same time, the Timberwolves own a 70.0% win rate on the road and are 7-1 SU in their eight previous away contests. Not only that, but Minnesota already defeated New Orleans on the road this season, emerging with a 121-120 victory back on Nov. 18 as Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards combined for 52 points on 63.3% shooting.

In fact, the Timberwolves are 2-0 SU against the Pelicans this season, having picked up a 122-101 victory on Nov. 8. Those two victories also improved Minnesota’s record to 4-1 SU in its last five meetings with New Orleans.

I don’t see the Timberwolves losing tonight. They do just about everything better than the Pelicans, especially when it comes to defense. I just can’t bring myself to have much faith in a team that only scored 89 points in its most recent outing.

With that in mind, I will take Minnesota to cover as +3.5 underdogs. After all, the T-Wolves have covered the spread four times in their last five meetings with New Orleans, which includes winning the last four by an average of nine points.

Timberwolves vs Pelicans Prediction: MIN wins

Best Timberwolves vs Pelicans Bet: MIN +3.5 (-110 on Bovada)

Best Timberwolves vs Pelicans Player Prop

As far as the best Timberwolves vs Pelicans player prop goes, I have my eye on Zion Williamson finishing with under 21.5 points.

While he’s shown promise here and there, Williamson — whose conditioning has come into question again — is struggling to score the ball as of late. The former 2019 first-overall pick is only averaging 15.5 points in his last four games, finishing with 13 or fewer in 12 of those contests. What’s even more concerning is that he only recorded more than nine field goal attempts once during that stretch.

Unfortunately for Williamson, the Timberwolves allow the second-fewest points to power forwards in 2023-24. With the likes of Towns and Rudy Gobert clogging the paint, I don’t see the 23-year-old producing much offense tonight.

Best Timberwolves vs Pelicans Prop: Zion Williamson u21.5 Points (-135 on Bovada)

---

NBA Best Bets and Picks

Looking to get in on even more basketball action? Be sure to check out our NBA Picks page for consensus picks for every game on any day of the year.

You can also check out:

• NBA betting odds
• NBA news and betting predictions
• How to bet on the NBA