Patriots vs Vikings Prediction & Picks: Can Minnesota rapidly recover from Dallas disaster?

After each managing just three offensive points at home in their Week 11 matchups, the New England Patriots and Minnesota Vikings will be looking to generate a little more point production when they meet at U.S. Bank to close out this year’s Thanksgiving Day NFL slate.

The Vikings had an absolutely miserable day against the visiting Dallas Cowboys, who were dominant on both sides of the ball in a 40-3 romp.

Dallas outgained Minnesota 458-183 and held the ball for over 37 minutes, and Kirk Cousins was sacked seven times as the Vikings came crashing down to earth after the high of their Week 10 win at Buffalo.

New England’s struggles to produce points at home against the rival New York Jets didn’t hurt them, however. That is thanks to a tiebreaking punt return touchdown by Marcus Jones with five seconds left.

PUNT RETURN TD WITH 5 SECONDS LEFT! @Patriots

📺: #NYJvsNE on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/0M1xbb6fcp pic.twitter.com/zF3bFuvvpI

— NFL (@NFL) November 20, 2022

The Pats will make the trip to on a three-game win streak and hopes to end Week 12 no worse than tied for the best record in the AFC East, though that may be asking a lot with the Bills heavily favored at Detroit and the Dolphins even more heavily favored at home against the Texans.

Will they be able to inflict more misery on Minnesota, or will the Vikings vanquish their visitors to aid their push for the top seed in the NFC East? Our Patriots vs Vikings prediction and picks are below.

New England Patriots vs Minnesota Vikings Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: New England Patriots (6-4, 3-2 away, 3rd in the AFC East) vs Minnesota Vikings (8-2, 4-1 home, 1st in the NFC North)
• Venue & Location: U.S. Bank Stadium (Minneapolis, Minnesota)
• Date: Thursday, November 24, 2022
• Game Time: 8:20 pm ET (7:20 pm local time)
• How to Watch Patriots vs Vikings: NBC

Patriots vs Vikings Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Tuesday, November 22, 2022, at 5:00 am ET. This article may also include odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites.

Spread

• New England Patriots +2.5 (-104)
• Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-118)

Over/Under

• Over 41.5 (-118)
• Under 41.5 (-104)

Moneyline

• New England Patriots +126
• Minnesota Vikings -148

Could the Short Week Benefit the Vikings?

Losing by 37 at home is rough no matter when it happens, but the timing could not be much worse when it came after a road win over a team many expect to be one of the last two teams standing at State Farm Stadium in February.

Against the Bills, the Vikings didn’t give in and give up after trailing 27-10 with under 17 minutes left in regulation or when they looked to be dead and buried in the final minute after failing to punch it into the end zone from the 1.

But there was no big comeback to be had against the Cowboys, who scored on seven straight possessions and punted only twice. After Minnesota tied it at 3 with a Greg Joseph field goal a little over midway through the first quarter, Dallas scored the game’s final 37 points.

Did anything go well? Dalvin Cook averaged 6.5 yards per carry, but he was limited to only 11 carries.

But the short turnaround this week might actually be a good thing for the Vikings. They have to quickly put the result and performance behind them to prepare for a tough game against New England, so there’s no time for any crises of confidence among the team.

Of course, putting aside a loss like that may be easier said than done. But they are ultimately still in full control in the NFC North and in contention for the top seed in the NFC, and they didn’t suddenly become a bad team just a week after beating the Bills.

New England Patriots vs Minnesota Vikings Prediction and Picks

Patriots vs Vikings Prediction: Vikings to win

Patriots vs Vikings Picks: Vikings to cover (Best Value: -3 @ +105 at Bovada Sportsbook) & Vikings team total over (Best Value: over 21.5 @ -115 at BetUS)

When it comes to making my Patriots vs Vikings prediction and picks, I do have one major concern about Minnesota.

Before being crushed by the Cowboys, Cousins was sacked four times in the win over the Bills. After being sacked four or more times just once in his previous 27 regular season games prior to Week 10, it has happened in back-to-back games.

The Patriots are first in opponent completion percentage (55.7%), second in the NFL in sacks (36), tied for fourth in interceptions (11), and sixth in yards allowed per pass (6.6).

But that doesn’t sway me into backing the Pats. Instead, I’m eyeing the value here with the Vikings. I typically don’t love recommending the spread when it’s a field goal or less, but this is a great spot to go against that.

Quite simply, had Minnesota not lost to Dallas–in any situation, but especially by 37 points at home–the spread would not be what it is.

It will be interesting to see if and how it moves between now and gametime, but whether it moves to -1 or -3, I still feel good about recommending it.

As I said, Minnesota didn’t suddenly become a bad team. And while things certainly got away from them against the Cowboys, the Vikes have done a great job of making plays and finding a way to win this season. Look for them to get back to that against New England and end Turkey Day with a valuable win.

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