NFL Offensive Player of the Year 2023 Odds, Favorites & Predictions

Last season, Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson became the third receiver in four seasons to be named NFL Offensive Player of the Year.

In his 2022 campaign, Jefferson led the NFL in receptions (128) and receiving yards (1,809) and found the end zone eight times in helping the Vikings win the NFC North title for the first time since 2017.

Will Jefferson become the first player to win the award in back-to-back seasons since Hall of Fame running back Marshall Faulk pulled off a three-peat from 1999-2001? Will the current trend of non-quarterback winners continue? Ahead of the upcoming season, Jefferson sits atop the odds along with former LSU teammate Ja’Marr Chase.

2023 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds

Odds are via BetUS as of Monday, August 14, 2023.

• Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings +1000
• Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals +1000
• Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers +1400
• Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins +1800
• Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens +2000
• Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears +2000
• Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns +2000
• Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills +2500
• Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts +2500
• Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams +2500
• Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles +2500
• Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs +2500
• Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills +2500
• Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals +2500
• Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets +2500
• Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans +2800
• Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders +2800
• Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers +2800
• Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs +3000
• Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants +3000
• Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins +3300
• Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons +3300
• CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys +3300
• Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys +3300
• Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions +3500

NFL Offensive Player of the Year Favorites

Justin Jefferson

If Jefferson stays healthy–he has played in all 50 possible regular season games to begin his NFL career–he could make a real run at becoming the first receiver to have a 2,000-yard season.

He’ll be the focus of a lot of attention, but that won’t stop Kirk Cousins from throwing to him early and often.

Ja’Marr Chase

Chase missed five games last season due to a hip injury suffered in Week 7, but he still finished with 87 catches, 1,046 yards, and nine touchdowns in 12 games.

Christian McCaffrey

After playing in only ten games across 2020 and 2021 due to injuries, McCaffrey had a healthy 2022 campaign.

It paid off, as he compiled nearly 1,900 yards from scrimmage and scored 13 touchdowns in 17 games. With the Carolina Panthers, he had 393 rushing yards and 277 receiving yards (on 33 catches) in six games, then compiled 746 rushing yards and 464 receiving yards (on 52 catches) in 11 games after being traded to the San Francisco 49ers.

Tyreek Hill

What will Hill do to follow his outstanding 2022 season? Last year, he set career highs in catches (119) and receiving yards (1,710) and scored eight total touchdowns.

Other Potential NFL Offensive Player of the Year Contenders

Derrick Henry

After having his quest for consecutive 2,000-yard seasons ended by injury in 2021, Henry ran for 1,538 yards and 13 touchdowns in 16 games last season. He also showcased his abilities as a receiving weapon, compiling career highs of 33 catches and 398 receiving yards.

Will he be utilized as much in the passing game this season as he was last season? If he is, that will only enhance his NFL Offensive Player of the Year credentials.

Davante Adams

In his first season with the Raiders, Adams posted his second straight season with 100+ catches and 1,500+ yards, catching exactly 100 passes for 1,516 yards and 14 touchdowns.

But after entering the season having caught 66.2% of his targets, he caught only 55.6% (100 of 180) targets in 2022. Only 109 of those passes were considered catchable, however. Will he have more success this season with new QB Jimmy Garoppolo?

Saquon Barkley

This season, Barkley will be playing to prove he is worthy of a long-term contract, whether with the Giants or somewhere else.

Will that lead to a career year for him? Last season, he ran for a career-best 1,312 yards and ten scores, and he caught 57 passes for 338 yards.

If he can return to being the receiving asset that he was in his first two seasons, he may be in the NFL Offensive Player of the Year conversation all season.

Tony Pollard

After increasingly garnering more touches over his first four seasons, Pollard is now the top name on the Cowboys’ depth chart at running back, following the offseason release of Ezekiel Elliott.

That makes him arguably the most intriguing name on this list.

Last season, he averaged 5.2 yards per carry and a career-high 9.5 yards per catch and had 1,378 total yards and 12 total touchdowns on 232 touches (5.94 yards per touch) in 16 games.

By comparison, McCaffrey averaged 5.71 yards per touch. If Pollard can maintain that level of production with an increased number of touches, he has as good a chance as anyone to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year.

NFL Offensive Player of the Year Predictions

Likely NFL Offensive Player of the Year: Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers

Last season, McCaffrey came close to recording 2,000 yards from scrimmage for the second time in his NFL career, and he did it while recording fewer than 50 rushing yards in eight games (six with the 49ers and two with the Panthers).

The 49ers have a lot of weapons and distribute the ball to those weapons well, but McCaffrey will be a valuable asset for a young starting quarterback. He averaged under 15 carries per game last season, but after Purdy took over for Jimmy Garoppolo, McCaffrey had 15+ carries in four of six regular season games and two of San Francisco’s three playoff games.

If he makes the most of the touches that he should get, he’ll likely compile 2,000+ yards from scrimmage for one of the best teams in the NFL. His incredible 2019 season with the 5-11 Panthers didn’t land him NFL OPOY–he finished third behind Michael Thomas and Lamar Jackson–but he will have a good chance for a different result this time around.

Best Value Option: Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys

If you are looking for the best option based on odds and potential to win, look no further than Pollard. The Cowboys may be everyone’s favorite team to deride and dislike, but they should once again have one of the NFL’s best offenses.

With no Ezekiel Elliott–or at least not as 1B in the backfield, if he happens to return to Dallas–Pollard should get the kind of touches that could see him put up McCaffrey-like numbers on a team that has the talent to be a Super Bowl contender.

Recent NFL Offensive Player of the Year Winners

• 2022: Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
• 2021: Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
• 2020: Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
• 2019: Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints
• 2018: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
• 2017: Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams
• 2016: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
• 2015: Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
• 2014: DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys
• 2013: Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos
• 2012: Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
• 2011: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
• 2010: Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
• 2009: Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans
• 2008: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

Where to Bet on the NFL

Many of the top online sportsbooks offer a wide variety of NFL odds throughout the season. In addition to being able to make weekly NFL picks on games from the Hall of Fame Game to the Super Bowl, you can also bet on the major awards like NFL MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Coach of the Year, and more at most reputable sports betting sites.

• BetOnline
• Bovada
• Bookmaker
• Sportsbetting.ag

Along with BetUS, where the NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds in this article came from, there are plenty of sports betting sites you can choose from that are good for NFL betting. The above books are some of the others that we highly recommend.

If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds.