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NFL MVP Odds 2024: Is Bills QB Josh Allen the Favorite?
Written by: Devon Platana
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen had quite the week to end November. Not only did the 28-year-old gunslinger get engaged to actress-singer Hailee Steinfeld, but he also led the Bills to Sunday’s dominant 35-10 win over the San Francisco 49ers, clinching the AFC East while firmly putting himself in the 2024 NFL MVP conversation along the way.
Even though Allen is currently on the upswing, is he a legitimate threat to win the award for the first time?
Let’s talk about it as we look at the latest 2024 NFL MVP odds ahead of Week 14, including if Allen has a real shot at bringing home the hardware.
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NFL MVP 2024 Odds Update Before Week 14
All NFL MVP odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Tuesday, Dec. 3 at 11:35 a.m. ET. Odds from other sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.
- Josh Allen, BUF (-275)
- Saquon Barkley, PHI (+450)
- Lamar Jackson, BAL (+800)
- Jared Goff, DET (+1400)
- Patrick Mahomes, KC (+1800)
- Jalen Hurts, PHI (+7500)
- Jordan Love, GB (+7500)
- Justin Herbert, LAC (+8000)
- Sam Darnold, MIN (+8000)
- Jayden Daniels, WAS (+8000)
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It’s clear that Josh Allen’s stellar Week 13 performance had a big impact on his NFL MVP odds. The Bills signal-caller is the +140 favorite ahead of last week’s action and his odds have since jumped up to -275 — an implied win probability of 73.3%.
The former Wyoming product’s dominance over the 49ers clearly provided his odds with a major boost. San Francisco couldn’t stop anything Allen did as the dual-threat QB rushed three times for 18 yards and a touchdown while completing 76.5% of passes for 148 passing yards and another pair of TDs — including one that was passed to, well, himself.
Following the Bills’ eighth consecutive victory, Allen has now recorded a 64.6% completion percentage, 2,691 passing yards, 20 TDs, five interceptions, and a 100.3 passer rating with a 10-2 record in his first 12 starts. That’s without even mentioning the damage he’s done on the ground, covering 70 rushing attempts into 334 more yards and six touchdowns. Even though he isn’t leading the league in many individual statistics, it’s clear that Allen deserves to be in the mix of being the NFL’s Most Valuable Player.
If he does go on to win the award, it will be a long time coming for Allen. The two-time Pro Bowl QB has finished fifth or higher in the MVP race three times in the previous four seasons, which includes when he finished as the runner-up to Aaron Rodgers in 2020, garnering 8% of the vote.
It’s been over 30 years since a Bills player last won the NFL MVP award (Thurman Thomas, 1991), and ending the drought would further cement Allen’s spot in franchise history.
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NFL MVP Betting: Should You Bet on Josh Allen?
Even though Allen is the current 2024 NFL MVP favorite, is wagering money on him a good idea?
In theory, the award should go to the player who’s most important to his team’s success and that’s exactly what he’s done for the Bills. They wouldn’t be 10-2 without Allen’s tremendous play under center, which has put them in position to challenge for the AFC’s No. 1 seed ahead of the postseason. If Buffalo can run the table down the stretch, his odds will only further improve. It’d likely take a major injury to knock him out of the race.
As for what a bet would look like, placing a $100 wager on Allen’s -275 odds would lead to a $136.63 total payout. With that in mind, now’s probably the best time to make a bet based on how his odds are trending.
At the end of the day, wagering on an Allen MVP win is a good idea if you aren’t looking for a massive payout. However, if you’re looking for a more valuable pick, I still think that Philadelphia Eagles RB Saquon Barkley is worth some consideration.
NFL MVP Prediction: Josh Allen, BUF (-275)
NFL MVP Value Bet: Saquon Barkley, PHI (+450)
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Devon is a Master of Journalism graduate who joined the sports betting world in 2020. His favorite leagues to cover are the NHL, NBA and NFL, and has a soft spot for fantasy football specifically. Outside of sports, he enjoys the finer things in life like pasta, live music and getting even more tattoos.
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