NFL Divisional Round: Commanders vs. Lions | Best Bets (1/17)

The Wild Card Round is over and it’s time to lock in for the Divisional Games. The Lions and Commanders face off at Ford Field this week, the Commanders coming off a last second win and the Lions coming off a well-deserved bye week.

We’ve got two elite QBs going head to head, offensive weapons galore on both squads and one dome to keep out the elements. With so much to do and so much to talk about, let’s get right into this game Lions/Commanders game. .

Here are our best bets for the Commanders vs. Lions

• Jameson Williams o56.5 Receiving Yards
• Jahmyr Gibbs o113.5 Rush + Receiving Yards

Vikings vs. Lions Game Information

Matchup Information

• Location: Ford Field; Detroit, Michigan
• Date: Saturday, January 18th, 2025
• Kickoff: 8:00 PM EST

Quarterback Matchup

• Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels (12-5; 2024 – 209.9 YPG | 25 TD | 9 INT)
• Detroit Lions: Jared Goff (15-2; 2024 – 272.3 YPG | 37 TD | 12 INT)

Betting Odds

Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.

Run Line

• Washington Commanders +9.5 (-110)
• Detroit Lions -9.5 (-110)

Money Line

• Washington Commanders (+400)
• Detroit Lions (-550)

Total

• Over 55.5 (-110)
• Under 55.5 (-110)

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Commanders vs. Lions Analysis & Breakdown

The Big Bad Lions

The Detroit Lions are quite clearly having their best season in recent memory. The Lions finished the season with just 2 losses, they have the #1 offense in the NFL (33.2 PPG) and a top-5 rushing defense. Dan Campbell has this Lions team believing they can win a Super Bowl and they’ve been playing with that same mentality all year.

Jared Goff has been playing like an MVP this year, he’s averaging 272.3 pass yards per game with 37 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions. In the backfield they’ve got the best 2-man tandem in the game, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Detroit’s averaging 146.6 rush yards per game (5th) this year and it’s all on the backs of Sonic and Knuckles. Both guys play off each other with no effort, and both backs bring their own skill set to the huddle.

Offensive Co-ordinator Ben Johnson has done a phenomenal job getting the best out of both guys and it’s the reason both guys lead this Lions offense in touchdowns this year.

Cinderella, it’s midnight.

The Commanders represent the best Cinderella Story out of the NFL this year. In September, everyone had this team finishing at the bottom of their division; it’s now January and Jayden Daniels already has 1 playoff win under his belt.

Last week, Washington managed to best the Buccaneers on a last second, DOINK and in field goal. Buccaneers fans everywhere in shambles, Commanders fans everywhere losing their minds; but with the Lions up next, it looks like the clock’s reading ‘time’s up, Cinderella’. 

Jahmyr Gibbs o113.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-110)

The Lions get their guy back this week, David Montgomery, but even so I love this spot for Jahmyr Gibbs. Two weeks ago when we took this prop, his line sat at 33.5 and Gibbs finished with 31 yards on 5 receptions and 5 targets. It’s a hard piill to swallow but 6 yards a catch just doesn’t fit the mold of Jahmyr Gibbs.

This year, Gibbs is averaging almost 10 yards per catch this year and over his L10 games that jumps to just under 13 yards per catch. On the ground, Gibbs has been even better; he’s averaging 83.1 rush yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry (3rd among RBs).

Despite Montgomery being back for the Lions, this line feels too low for a guy like Gibbs; especially with the Lions sitting here as 9.5-point favorites. The Commanders have done an excellent job holding the opposition’s pass game in check this year, they allow just 189.5 pass yards per game (3rd) and have done a great job of holding opposing RBs in check.

However, on the ground is where they have real issues. The Commanders rank 30th in rush yards allowed and 27th in yards per carry allowed. Detroit should be playing this one with a lead and if that’s the case late in the game, expect them to continue to run clock with Gibbs & let Montgomery get some rest.

Jahmyr Gibbs o113.5 Rushing + Recieving Yards (-110)

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Jameson Williams o56.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

For Detroit, it’s finally the post-season. They’ve been waiting for this moment since the NFC Championship game last season. The Lions have rolled through regular season play but now the post-season has begun and I just know that their OC Ben Johnson isn’t leaving any tricks in the bag.

In the same NFC Championship game last year, it was Jameson Williams that scored TWICE. Williams had 3 targets in that game, finished with just 2 catches but both catches were for touchdowns. This year has been this kid’s coming out party and the Lions couldn’t be happier.

Williams is averaging 66.7 receiving yards per game this year, he’s scored 7 touchdowns and he recorded his 1st ever 1000-yard season. Big plays have been William’s bread and butter this year, and that’s exactly where the Commanders struggle.

Over the L10 games, the Commanders have allowed at least one play of 20+ yards in 9 of those 10 games. Williams has recorded a reception of 18+ yards in 7 of his L10 games; at home this year, he’s recorded a reception of 18+ yards in 6 of 8 games with a catch of 50+ yards in 4 of the 8 games.

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Jameson Williams o56.5 Receiving Yards (-110) via BetOnline

Get 50% up to $1,000 on your NFL picks today at BetOnline

To Recap, NFL Bets for January 18th, 2025:

In the Commanders vs. Lions game on Saturday Night, we’re rolling with 2 props. Jahmyr Gibbs o113.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-110), & Jameson Williams o56.5 Receiving Yards (-110); both via BetOnline

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