NFC Wild Card, Washington Commanders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: NFL Odds & Best Bets

The NFL Wild Card Weekend is finally here with some fantastic matchups across the board. However, let’s take a deeper look at Sunday Night Football down in Florida as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Washington Commanders. The Bucs are in very familiar territory, having made the playoffs the last five years while also winning a playoff game with Baker Mayfield last year in Philly.

However the Commanders have not been here since the 2020 season, where they lost to the Tom Brady led Buccaneers in Washington. Now Jayden Daniels leads his new team in a playoff game in his first season in the NFL. Can he stay poised and pull off this postseason upset on the road? Or will Baker and the Bucs handle business like last year?

Tampa Bay already took down Washington at Raymond James Stadium to open the season, winning 37-20. In his first NFL start, Daniels threw for 184 yards and led his team with 88 yards on the ground, and tacked on 2 rushing TDs. Baker had 4 TDs through the air along with 289 passing yards. In this postseason rematch, who will be victorious?

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Washington Commanders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: NFC Wild Card

Matchup Information – Commanders vs Buccaneers

• Venue & Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)
• Date: Sunday, January 12th, 2025
• Kick Off: 8:00pm Eastern
• Broadcast: NBC/Peacock

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Commanders +3 (-115)
• Buccaneers -3 (-105)

Money Line

• Commanders +140
• Buccaneers -160

Total

• Over 50.5 (-105)
• Under 50.5 (-115)

Daniels Faces Bucs, Baker in First Playoff Game

The future is already bright for Washington with Daniels at the helm, and I’d call this season a success already. But now you have a rookie QB making his first playoff start on the road, against a veteran guy that has been here before, and had a taste of postseason success just a year ago. The Commanders can certainly put up points on the board, and I won’t reference that Week 1 game very often, but the Bucs were one of four teams who held the Washington offense to 20 points or less. Now Washington did go 2-2 in those contests, beating the Bears and Saints while losing to Tampa and Philly, and they ended up being the 5th highest scoring offense this season.

However, Tampa Bay finished just ahead of them, averaging one more point per game. While their number does drop off at home, so does the Commanders on the road, and it’s slightly more significant. Defensively, teams are also about eve, ranking 16th and 18th in the NFL in points allowed. We see now change in the the Bucs numbers at home, while the Commanders give up almost a field goal more per game on the road.

While both of these offenses can score in bunches, I see the Commanders giving up more big plays on defense, resulting in some successful drives for the home town offense. Washington went 12-5 this season, but only 1-4 against playoff teams, with that one win being against a Kenny Pickett led Eagles team. Not to knock on the Commanders success this season, but it may have been partially the result of an easier schedule.

Washington Commanders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Best Bets

Washington vs Tampa Bay Prediction: Buccaneers Win & Cover, Over 50.5

Best Bet: Buccaneers -3 (-105) BetOnline

The 10-7 Buccaneers went 4-3 against other playoff teams this season, so you can certainly call them battle tested. They have the advantage of being at home, they face a rookie QB in his first playoff start, and I trust their defense much more than the Commanders.

I think we see both offenses go back and forth, especially in the first half, but eventually I think the Buccaneers defense is more capable at getting stops and rattling their opponents, especially being in front of their home crowd. Tampa Bay is used to being in the playoffs, they got a tough win last year before losing to Detroit, and they are hungry for more postseason success. With Mayfield, the RB tandem and Mike Evans, things are looking bright for the Buccaneers, especially this weekend where they get a big win over Washington.

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