Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills: NFL Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (11/17)

One of the most anticipated games of the NFL season happens this Sunday as the Buffalo Bills host the Kansas City Chiefs. The Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes saga continues today, this time back in Buffalo. Now I’ll be honest, because of that little plus sign next to the Chiefs, this article really writes itself.

Let me cut to the chase, and let you know why there is literally zero reason to bet on the Bills tonight, with all homerisms aside.

Kansas City comes into this game 9-0 on the season. We all don’t know how, but the Chiefs just keep getting it done. Surely there is some karma from last week’s blocked field goal waiting for them in Buffalo, right? The Bills are rolling this season, off to a 8-2 start and are a perfect 4-0 at home. But Mahomes and the boys are coming to town looking for perfection, and this specific game may very well determine if we see Kansas City go undefeated. Regardless, let’s get into the betting aspect!

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills: Can Allen Take Down Mahomes?

Matchup Information – Chiefs vs Bills

• Venue & Location: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, NY)
• Date: Sunday, November 17th, 2024
• Kick Off: 4:25pm Eastern
• Broadcast: CBS

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Chiefs +2 (-110)
• Bills -2 (-110)

Money Line

• Chiefs +114
• Bills -134

Total

• Over 46 (-110)
• Under 46 (-110)

No Butker, No Problem for the Chiefs

The Chiefs lost their clutch kicker and as a fan, I hope it doesn’t come into play. But against the Bills, you’ve gotta think this game comes down to a last second field goal on either side. There’s going to be drama, that’s just what happens when the Chiefs face the Bills.

Last season Mahomes also proved he could do it on the road, beating the Bills in Buffalo last playoffs. Can he do it again tonight in the regular season? Although he is 3-0 against Josh Allen in the playoffs, Allen has beat him during the regular season. It’s going to take a monster game on both sides of the ball from the Bills to beat the defending champions, and to be quite honest, they might do it. It wouldn’t even surprise me if Buffalo wins this game by a touchdown or double digits, but the Chiefs are still the value play here.

The Bills are banged up offensively and will be without Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid today, along with a beat up Amari Cooper. Going up against Kansas City, you know you’ll have to score points, but that can be very tough against this defense. The Chiefs rank 5th in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing less than 18 points per game with that number dropping to 16.3 on the road. I trust the defense to step up as they’ve been doing all season and help this team get another tough win.

Patrick Mahomes is the best QB in the NFL. Is he playing is best football right now? Absolutely not. He’s being carried by his defense and special teams. But everyone knows what this guy is capable of, especially in big time moments. You don’t often get the plus sign next to Mahomes and the Chiefs, but when you do, you press the button and enjoy the game.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills Best Bets

Chiefs vs Bills Prediction: Chiefs Win, Under 46

Best Bet: Chiefs ML (+112) Bovada

In his 105 game NFL Career, Patrick Mahomes has been an underdog just 14 times. How has he done in 14 games as an underdog?

He’s 12-1-1 against the spread and 11-3 straight up. To be honest, if the Chiefs win today, he might never be an underdog again.

In his seven year career, Mahomes is an underdog just 13% of the time, while cashing his plus money ML tickets at a 78.5% clip. Do I need to make this any simpler?

We have a plus money opportunity that only comes around 13% of the time, but when it does, it hits at an 80% rate. Take the Chiefs out of it. Forget your hatred towards Mahomes. You’d take that bet every single time.

I know the world wants the Chiefs to lose, nobody likes the NFL bully, but from a VALUE PERSPECTIVE there is no reason to back the Bills here. They can win by a field goal, they can win by a touchdown, they can beat the Chiefs by 3 scores, and backing Patrick Mahomes at plus money is still the correct side.

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