Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans: NFL Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (9/29)

A classic AFC South matchup happens down in Houston on Sunday afternoon as the Texans host the Jacksonville Jaguars for some NFL action. These teams boast two of the most exciting young rosters in the game, but one is performing much better than the other so far this season. The Jaguars come into this game starting off 0-3 for the first time since Trevor Lawrence’s rookie season. It wasn’t until Week 6 did they finally get a win that year, so Jacksonville fans are certainly hoping it won’t take that long this time.

The Jaguars fell apart against Miami, were lifeless against Cleveland, and hardly even showed up to play the Bills. The young QB caught a major pay day, and has forgotten how to play football. It’s a tale as old as time. While the Jaguars are winless, the Texans come into this game 2-1 on the season following their first loss on the road to Minnesota. Sam Darnold tore apart the Houston secondary, and CJ Stroud threw 2 picks in arguably his worst game as a starter in the NFL.

Houston has a winning record, but they are not playing anywhere near their ceiling. They are 0-2-1 against the spread (although they beat it against the Bears if you got -5.5 #CLV), and the offense hasn’t been overly impressive like we all expected. With this be the game they finally turn it on? Will the Jaguars show signs of life? Or are they a dead body walking?

Let’s dive in and discuss.

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans: AFC South Matchup

Matchup Information – Jaguars vs Texans

• Venue & Location: NRG Stadium (Houston, TX)
• Date: Sunday, September 29th, 2024
• Kick Off: 1:00pm Eastern
• Broadcast: CBS

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Jaguars +5.5 (-105)
• Texans -5.5 (-115)

Money Line

• Jaguars +215
• Texans -255

Total

• Over 45.5 (-110)
• Under 45.5 (-110)

Jaguars Face Texans in Rivalry Game

This is an interesting spot for Houston, because not only is it a bounce back spot, but also potentially a look ahead spot. Houston faces the Bills next Sunday, yes at home, but a huge matchup to say the least as Stroud faces Josh Allen for the first time. But overall for me, this is a show me spot for the Texans.

We all expected greatness out of this offense coming into the season. With the addition of Stefon Diggs, Stroud had all the weapons in the world. But of course, we should’ve known to expect a bit of a sophomore slump. Now, the Texans are still 2-1, Stroud is throwing for 235 yards per game, and they don’t have much to be worried about facing the Jaguars. However, this offense can do more. And they will need to do more if they want to go on a playoff run this season.

It all starts Sunday against their AFC South foe, and I fully expected Stroud and company to ball out. To answer my earlier question, yes, I think the Jaguars are just a dead body walking. I had high expectations after the first half of Week 1, but things have quickly come spiraling out of control. They could hardly move the ball against the Bills, and rank 28th defensively in points allowed, giving up over 28 per contest. This is the perfect spot for Houston to really break out, show everyone what the offense is capable of, and tear apart a very bad Jaguars defense.

With Joe Mixon potentially sidelined, I think the Texans really let Stroud air it out. Jacksonville is allowing over 250 passing yards per game, 3rd worst in the NFL. Tank Dell may be out as well, which sets up Nico Collins, Stroud’s favorite target for more big plays. Even without Mixon and Dell, I could see the Houston offense producing to their fullest this week, and I will be betting as such.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans Best Bets

Jaguars vs Texans Prediction: Texans Win & Cover, Over 45.5

Best Bet: Texans -5.5 (-115) BetOnline

Like I said, this is a show me spot for the Texans. You are hosting a winless division rival, you’ve played good enough, but nowhere near great, and you’re coming off a rather embarrassing loss. This Sunday they show out for their home town fans.

Even without Mixon or Dell, Stroud has the weapons to tear apart a Jaguars secondary that ranks within the bottom 5 teams of the league. The Bills put up 47 points without breaking a sweat. Stroud at home should be able to do the same, especially considering it is technically a short week for the Jaguars who played Monday Night. On the quick turn around, I see plenty of their issues not getting fixed before this matchup, causing more downward spiraling on the football field.

Bonus Bet: Nico Collins Over 5.5 Receptions (-145) Bovada

We will also target Mr. Collins, and at this point you know we aren’t afraid of paying any juice. Always shop around, and go ahead and bump this up to 7+ receptions for (+127) if you want, but Collins is without a doubt Stroud’s number 1 target. He has 18 catches on 28 targets, leading the team in targets and yards. While he only caught 4 passes last week, he’s cleared 6 catches in 2/3 games this season, as well as 9/17 last season. He’s seen double digit targets in his last two contests, and 3 of his L4 dating back to last season. With Tank Dell likely sidelined, or even if he isn’t, Collins should see an uptick in targets, and we know he’s got great hands. Give me the Texans to roll and Collins to come alive on Sunday afternoon.

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