Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins Preview: Small Line Equals Big Betting Opportunity In Miami

It’s the Jacoby Brissett Bowl in Miami as the Dolphins host the Colts. The Colts might be wishing they had him right now, while the Dolphins look like they can win with him. The Dolphins are a small NFL betting favorite to move to .500 on the season, which would keep the Colts without a win.

The Colts have had a tough schedule to open the season, playing the Seahawks, Rams, and Titans, but a winless start is still a tough sight. Now they are in danger of falling to 0-4, and that will be tough to come back from even with the extra game this season.

The Dolphins suffered a tough road loss to the Raiders in Week 3, falling in overtime in Vegas. Now they have to rebound at home to avoid a three-game losing streak.

Indianapolis Colts (0-3) vs Miami Dolphins (1-2), CBS, 1:00 PM ET

Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins NFL Betting Odds

Moneyline

• Indianapolis Colts +122
• Miami Dolphins -144

Total

• OVER 41.5 (-114)
• UNDER 41.5 (-106)

Spread

• Indianapolis Colts +2.5 (-106)
• Miami Dolphins -2.5 (-114)

Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins odds are via BetOnline Sportsbook as of Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 7:00 a.m. ET. Want to see NFL betting odds from several top online sportsbooks for all of the NFL Week 4 matchups? Check out our NFL odds.

Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins NFL Betting Consensus

Moneyline

• 50% Indianapolis Colts
• 50% Miami Dolphins

Total (at O/U 41.5)

• 100% OVER 41.5
• o% UNDER 41.5

Spread (at +/-2.5)

• 50% Indianapolis Colts +2.5
• 50% Miami Dolphins -2.5

Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins Matchup: NFL Betting Picks, Odds, Stats and More

Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins Betting Outlook

Indianapolis is in trouble. Not only are they winless but with Carson Wentz struggling, the offense is performing below expectations. Last week he threw for under 200 yards against a Tennessee defense that is far from elite. The offense has struggled all season long, and until consistent production happens, the Colts will find it hard to win. To make matters worse, three-time Pro Bowl lineman Quenton Nelson suffered a high ankle sprain against the Titans and has been placed on injured reserve. Nelson had started 51 straight games to start his career, so this is a huge blow for the Colts.

The Colts were also hoping that their defense would be better than it has been. They have been playing solid offenses for sure but they have been gouged on the ground. Some of that may the specific offenses they played, such as Tennessee which rushed for 180 yards last week. Still, the Colts are not as effective defensively as they were a year ago when they were among the best in the NFL. That allowed them to not have to rely on the offense to be dominant.

Dolphins Need to End Losing Skid At Home

Miami’s results so far make it hard to know just where this team really is. They barely edged out the Patriots in Week 1, were routed by the Bills in Week 2, and then had that close loss in Vegas last week.

Tua Tagovailoa is still out with a rib injury, but I am among those that think Brissett is just a better player right now. The Dolphins will have a better chance to win if Brissett can make the most of Will Fuller’s big-play ability. Fuller was suspended for the opener and was out in Week 2 due to a personal issue before making his Dolphins debut last week.

The Dolphins are giving up a lot of yards, but it is encouraging that they have six takeaways through three games. The last 2 weeks they have played two very good offenses, but this week the matchup is much more favorable. The defense should be a big part of a win this weekend.

NFL Betting Trends to Consider for Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins

• In their last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game, the Colts have a 3-0-2 ATS record.
• The Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Colts are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• In their last eight home games against a team with a losing record, the Dolphins are a perfect 8-0 ATS.
• The Dolphins are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• The Dolphins are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss.

Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins Best Bet

Miami -2.5

I am surprised that this number is not the full three points. I like this team so much better with Brissett at the controls over Tua. I also like almost any defense against Wentz but especially one that is good at taking the ball away because Wentz just isn't very precise.

If this game is close, I am not sure how you can go against the home team with what we have seen from the Colts. The Dolphins might be a popular teaser too as you can turn them into an underdog. The Colts look snakebit right now so keep fading them.

Prop Watch: Jacoby Brissett Over 208.5 Yards Passing

Brissett did not get to this number in last week’s overtime game, but in Fuller and Jaylen Waddle, the Dolphins have targets that can stretch the field and help Brissett put up solid numbers through the air. This is very reachable.

Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins Score Prediction

Miami Dolphins 23, Indianapolis Colts 16