Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs: NFL Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (12/21)

The NFL has some action on Saturday at Arrowhead as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Houston Texans, as we get to see Patrick Mahomes and CJ Stroud battle it out for the first time. Now, earlier in the week it looked as if we might miss the Chiefs starter, and instead see backup Carson Wentz. Las Vegas certainly thought so as they opened this line with the Texans as a 2.5 point favorite on the road, quickly shifting to a 3.5 point underdog as they stand now.

Everything is pointing towards Mahomes suiting up this game, but with a quick turn around and travel to face Pittsburgh on Wednesday on Christmas, one wrong hit could take him out of this ball game. Regardless, the Chiefs are still playing to solidify themselves as the AFC’s #1 overall seed, and a win tonight makes it very difficult for that title to be taken from them.

The Texans have won two straight and 3 of their L4, dropping their last two losses by a combined 8 points to the Titans and Lions. They have successfully clinched the AFC South already, but are still battling with Pittsburgh for playoff seeding. Can Stroud come into Arrowhead and upset the defending Champions?

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Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs: Saturday at Arrowhead

Matchup Information – Texans vs Chiefs

• Venue & Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, MO)
• Date: Saturday, December 21st, 2024
• Kick Off: 1:00pm Eastern
• Broadcast: NBC/Peacock

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Texans +3.5 (-116)
• Chiefs -3.5 (-104)

Money Line

• Texans +160
• Chiefs -180

Total

• Over 42 (-110)
• Under 42 (-110)

Mahomes Hosts Stroud on a Bad Ankle

Despite the doubt earlier in the week, #15 is going to start this game for Kansas City (at least according to the line movement). A smarter man than I would’ve taken the Chiefs +2.5 as soon as the line dropped, but alas I will not rush to back them at -3.5 with a banged up Mahomes. Do I think the Chiefs win? Yes, and I even think they cover, but we missed the opportunity and will look elsewhere.

Both of these teams are about middle of the pack in terms of scoring per game, while both defenses are in the Top 10. Houston allows just 21 points per game, while the Chiefs hold their opponents to 18.5. Over the last 3 games, they’ve only been allowing 13.7, but the Chargers, Browns and Raiders don’t compare to the Texans offensively.

Kansas City has only been held to less than 20 points this season by other AFC West opponents. It’s almost like the teams that play Mahomes the most have better ways to slow him down. Point being, you need to likely score 20+ (if not, more) in order to beat Kansas City. I’m not sure that Houston has the capabilities to do that, especially against this Top 5 Chiefs defense.

While I lean with the Chiefs and the under, and took a LONG look at Texans TT Under 19.5, I’ve decided to settle on a player prop.

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Best Bets

Houston vs Kansas City Prediction: Chiefs Win & Cover, Over 42

Best Bet: Isaiah Pacheco Over 13.5 Rush Attempts (-120) SportsBettingAG

Pacheco is back for the Chiefs, and he is clearly the RB1. He out carried Hunt 14-7 in his first full game back, and despite them splitting carries evenly at 13 a piece last week, I see them running plenty on Saturday.

Mahomes is banged up, but he’s still going to give it a go. How do you protect your quarterback and make his life easier? You run the damn ball.

The Chiefs are certainly a pass heavy offense, but in order to take it easy on their QB, I see plenty of touches for both running backs. Kansas City is 11th in rushes per game, and while Houston’s interior defense is better than most, the entire unit is a little beat up. I see the Chiefs winning the battle in the trenches, tiring out the Texans’ D-Linemen, and taking full advantage of having Pacheco back in the lineup.

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