Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys: NFL Predictions, Odds & Best Bets

Monday Night Football is down in the Lone Star State as the Dallas Cowboys host the Houston Texans in this showdown on ESPN. Both teams desperately need a win, but the home team a little bit more.

Dallas has now lost four straight games, getting outscored 138 to 60 in those games. The Cowboys are now 3-6 on the season, sit in 3rd place of the NFC East, and are likely going to miss the playoffs unless something miraculous happens. It’s also worth mentioning this team is 0-4 at Jerry’s World this season. Last year the Cowboys struggled away from home, this season they simply can’t play anywhere. Cooper Rush starts again as Dak Prescott is out, but there are whispers of Trey Lance potentially getting a chance to start on Thanksgiving Day. Regardless, the Cowboys will need to find a way to slow down Stroud.

Houston has now lost two straight games, but they are still on top of the AFC South by just one game. They certainly want to turn things around on the road tonight and build some momentum for the last few weeks of the season. Nico Collins is back on the field and makes things easier for Stroud with another one of his weapons back in action. Houston has certainly taken a step back on the road this season, but their three road losses come against Minnesota, Green Bay, and the New York Jets. While they would obviously like to come away with a win in each of those contests, losing to the Vikings and Packers at their place isn’t necessarily a bad loss.

However, Houston will want to win tonight and avoid dropping a third straight game. Can they do that? Or will Cooper Rush lead the Cowboys to a much needed upset at home?

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Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys: Lone Star State Showdown

Matchup Information – Texans vs Cowboys

• Venue & Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, TX)
• Date: Monday, November 18th, 2024
• Kick Off: 8:15pm Eastern
• Broadcast: ESPN

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Texans -7 (-115)
• Cowboys +7 (-105)

Money Line

• Texans -365
• Cowboys +295

Total

• Over 41 (-115)
• Under 41 (-105)

Can Stroud and Texans Bounce Back on the Road?

What was once a larger lead in the AFC South is down to just one game. Lucky for Houston, they beat the Colts twice head to head so they will win a tiebreaker, nevertheless, the Texans should want to solidify their division title as early as possible. That all starts tonight against a floundering Cowboys team.

With Dak out for the foreseeable future and the Cowboys nearly at the bottom of the NFC, this season is in shambles. Dallas ain’t winning anything this year, and they need some major moves in order to compete next year. I don’t see them playing spoiler tonight against a much superior Houston team that is looking to get back on track. However I am not rushing to press the Texans -7 button.

They are facing a Cowboys team that ranks 31st in scoring defense, and 32nd by a wide margin at home. While I do Houston being able to move the ball, punching it into the end zone might be a different story. The Cowboys are still a Top 12 team in terms of opponent 3rd down conversion percentage while the Texans are middle of the pack on 3rd down conversions. What Dallas seriously struggles with is stopping the run, and I see Houston exploiting that tonight.

Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys Best Bets

Texans vs Cowboys Prediction: Texans Win & Cover

Best Bet: Joe Mixon Over 89.5 Rushing Yards (-114) BetOnline

Shop around as always, but Mixon should have no trouble cleared 90+ yards for us tonight, and I see him going for triple digits.

In 7 games this season, Mixon averages 21.5 touches for 93.6 yards per game. That’s just over 4.3 yards per carry, but the workload has been huge the past few games. Mixon has 24+ carries in each of his L4 games, and has run for 100+ in 4 of his L5 and 5/7 games on the season. He’s nearly automatic to find the end zone, having a rushing TD in 6/7 games with 7 total on the season. But let’s talk about the defense he faces.

The Cowboys are 31st in rushing defense, allowing over 150 yards per game. Plus they are the only team in the NFL giving up over 200 yards on the ground per contest at home. That is not good. This translates to over 4.7 yards per carry, ranking 23rd in the NFL and falling to the bottom 3 when talking about playing inside of Jerry’s World. The Cowboys are one of three teams allowing over 5.3 yards per carry at home this year (Shoutout the Bucs and the Saints).

Mixon is coming off a game where he ran for just 1.8 yards per rush against the Lions, but Detroit is arguably a top rushing defense in the league. He tore up the Jets, Patriots and Colts (twice), who all rank north of 20 in rushing yards per game. The Cowboys have let RBs have some big games on them this season.

RBs Against Dallas

• Alvin Kamara: 20-115-3, 2-65-1
• Derrick Henry: 25-151-2
• David Montgomery: 12-80-2
• Jahmyr Gibbs: 12-63, 3-28
• Isaac Guerendo: 14-85-1
• Bijan Robinson: 19-86, 7-59

Joe Mixon will see tons of touches, and plenty of opportunities to run all over a very bad Cowboys rushing defense. If this line is too high, just take him to score a TD with however many yards gets you the odds you’re comfortable with, because Mixon is in for a very big night.

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