Commanders vs. Giants | NFL Week 9 Breakdown & Best Bets

We’ve officially gotten to the halfway point of the season and I’m feeling a little sad. With only so many games left in the 2024/25 NFL Season, let’s make the most of it and jump into this divisional battle in New York; where the Giants are hosting the red hot Commanders.

Here are our best bets for the Commanders vs. Giants!

• • Malik Nabers Anytime Touchdown (+120) via BetOnline
  • Zack Ertz Anytime Touchdown (+240) via BetOnline

Commanders @ Giants  Game Information

MetLife Stadium; East Rutherford, New Jersey

Matchup Information

• Location: MetLife Stadium; East Rutherford, New Jersey
• Date: Sunday, November 3rd, 2024
• Kickoff: 1:00 PM EST

Quarterback Matchup

• Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels (6-2; 2024 – 217.0 YPG | 7 TD | 2 INT)
• New York Giants: Daniel Jones (2-6; 2024 – 213.3 YPG | 6 TD | 5 INT)

Betting Odds

Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.

Run Line

• Washington Commanders -4 (-108)
• New York Giants +4 (-112)

Money Line

• Washington Commanders (-205)
• New York Giants (+175)

Total

• Over 44 (-110)
• Under 44 (-110)

Get 50% up to $1,000 on your NFL picks today at BetOnline

Commanders @ Giants Analysis & Breakdown

Jayden Daniels got his first walk-off win, last week.

When the season started, I don’t think there was a single person that had the Commanders leading the NFC East after Week 8.

Jayden Daniels has been phenomenal to start his career, averaging 217 passing yards per game, he’s thrown 7 touchdowns and ran in for 4 more. He’s got this Commanders offense firing on all cylinders and now they head to the Big Apple. 

The Giants are 2-6 on the year and they’ve been even worse than their record shows. New York’s averaging just 14.6 points per game (31st) and just 303.6 total yards (26th).

The Giants’ defense has been decent this year, is giving up 21.6 points per game (14th) and they lead the league in sacks. They rank 8th in pass yards allowed to their opponents and have given up just 9 passing touchdowns in 8 games.

Washington’s been the exact opposite, a middle tier defense backed by an unstoppable offense. The Commanders rank 3rd in 1st Downs/game (22.6), 4th in 3rd Down conversion rate (46.39%), and they’ve got a 100% conversion rate on 4th Down.

Last week the Commanders faced one of the toughest defenses in the NFL and we all saw how that game finished; the Commanders won on a walk-off Hail Mary with no time left on the clock, in case you missed it.

They scored just 18 points but that’s a lot against a Bears’ team that hasn’t given up over 21 points since November of 2023. This week they’ll get a much softer opponent, and this will be the 2nd and final time the Giants and Commanders meet this year.

Divisional games are always that much more intense, especially the 2nd of the two meetings. Strap in, this should be a fun one.

Malik Nabers Anytime Touchdown (+120) via BetOnline – Get a $500 WELCOME BONUS 

Malik Nabers has yet to score a touchdown at MetLife Stadium.

The Commanders pass defense was looking abysmal through the first 4 weeks of the season. They had given up 10 passing touchdowns, over 1000 yards through the air and were giving up 25.2 points per game.

Over their last 4 games, they’ve given up just 2 passing touchdowns, just under 700 passing yards, and giving up just 16.5 points per game. Some of this is because the defense has stepped up, but a lot of it’s due to their opponents.

During the last 4 weeks, the Commanders have faced the Bears, the Panthers, Ravens and Browns. Both the Panthers and Browns rank in the bottom 5 in team offense and points per game, with 3 of the 4 teams ranking bottom 5 in passing offense.

This week they get another bottom tier passing offense with the Giants, but we’re targeting their young rookie, Malik Nabers. Nabers’ target share this year has been crazy; in the 7 games he’s taken the field, his target share sits at 31% (10.3/game).

Malik’s seeing an average depth of target of 11 yards and he’s seen 10+ targets in 4 of his 7 games this year. The last time he played this Commanders team, he recorded 10 catches on 18 targets for 127 yards and a touchdown.

He’s familiar with this Commanders’ secondary and he’s yet to score a touchdown at MetLife. What better week to do it?

Malik Nabers Anytime Touchdown (+120) via BetOnline

Get 50% up to $1,000 on your NFL picks today at BetOnline

Zach Ertz Anytime Touchdown (+240) via BetOnline – Get a $500 WELCOME BONUS 

We’re going with some value here. Ertz has been a target machine for Jayden Daniels this year. He’s 2nd on the team in targets and there’s about a 20-target gap between him and 3rd place. He’s seen 5+ targets in 4 of the L5 games and he’s got just 1 touchdown this year.

Ertz also leads this Commanders team in redzone targets this year with 8, unfortunately only one of those has been converted into a touchdown. He’s so due.

The Giants rank top 6 in yards allowed to the tight end position but that has more to do with their opponents than it does their defense. Over the first 8 games, the Giants have seen two, really good tight ends and one of them was Zach.

He recorded 4 catches for 64 yards against the Giants in Week 2, and it was Jake Ferguson with 7 catches for 49 yards. Both tight ends were held out of the endzone but this week that changes.

Ertz has played the Commanders 15 times in his career, playing most of his career in the NFC East. He’s averaging 5 receptions per game for 62 yards and he’s scored 7 touchdowns; with 6 of those touchdowns coming over his last 7 matchups with New York.

He’s scored in his last two trip to MetLife Stadium, let’s make it three this week.

30% off all Betalytics Packages, Code: BNEWS

Zack Ertz Anytime Touchdown (+240) via BetOnline

Get 50% up to $1,000 on your NFL picks today at BetOnline

To Recap, NFL Bets for November 3rd, 2024:

In the Commanders @ Giants game on Sunday, we’re rolling with 2 touchdown scorers. Malik Nabers Anytime Touchdown (+120), & Zack Ertz Anytime Touchdown (+240); both via BetOnline

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