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Falcons vs. Commanders | Week 17 Predictions, Odds & Best Bets
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Updated:
Read Time: 7 minutes
nfl
Atlanta Falcons Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+3.5
-117
46
-110o
+161
Washington Commanders Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+5.0
-110
48
-125u
+200
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See Picks & Statistics For The GameIt’s Sunday Night Football in Week 17, how did we get here so fast. So much has happened this season and now it feels like it all happened so fast. Tonight we’ve got two rookie QBs, a matchup we didn’t think we’d see this year, Michael Penix Jr. vs. Jayden Daniels.
Penix got the starting nod last week and rewarded the Falcons with a 34-6 win, recording over 200 passing yards and one interception (tipped ball). He looked great in his debut and Jayden Daniels has looked great all year. We should be in for a fun matchup tonight in the Nation’s Capital so lock in and let’s talk about my favorite props tonight.
Here are our best bets for the Falcons @ Commanders!
- Drake London o59.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Terry McLaurin o64.5 Receving Yards (-110)
Falcons @ Commanders Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location: Northwest Stadium; Landover, Maryland
- Date: Sunday, December 29th, 2024
- Kickoff: 8:20 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Atlanta Falcons: Michael Penix (1-0; 2024 – 202 YPG | 0 TD | 1 INT)
- Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels (10-5; 2024 – 220.2 YPG | 22 TD | 8 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Run Line
- Atlanta Falcons +3.5 (-115)
- Washington Commanders -3.5 (-105)
Money Line
- Atlanta Falcons (+160)
- Washington Commanders (-190)
Total
- Over 46 (-110)
- Under 46 (-110)
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Falcons vs. Commanders Analysis & Breakdown
Formerly known as, the Washington Football Team.
This isn’t the Washington team we’ve grown used to over the L10 years. This year’s team has swagger, they win games and they finally have the elite QB they’ve been looking for. Jayden Daniels is 10-5 on the year, averaging 220.2 pass yards per game with 22 touchdowns through the air.
Not only has he been great with his arm, but he’s averaging 49.1 rush yards per game with 6 touchdowns on the ground. The Commanders have now locked up a playoff spot and now playing for a better seed in the post-season. Making the playoffs in your rookie season is a not easy, almost as tough as winning 10 games in your rookie season. Jayden’s now done both and just adding to his resume.
Still Fighting
The Atlanta Falcons are team still fighting for a spot in the playoffs. Last week we saw Atlanta make a change at QB and the Falcons offense finally came to life. Atlanta scored 34 points in front of the home crowd, and outside of a tipped ball by Kyle Pitts, Penix was perfect in his debut.
Tonight marks the first time Penix will play on the road and tonight marks the first time these two rookies will go head to head. Northwest Stadium is not easy stadium to make your debut. It’s cold, the fans are loud and the defense hits hard. Despite the tough road environment, I trust Penix is up to the task.
Drake London o59.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
It was clear last week, Drake London and Michael Penix have a connection. Penix went to London 8 times in last weeks win against the Giants; he lead the team in targets, catches and was even targeted twice in the red zone. London only came away with 59 yards in that game but a lot was left on the field.
Tonight the Falcons line up against a Commanders secondary that just got torched by AJ Brown for 8 catches, 97 yards and a touchdown. Washington made a trade earlier this year for long-time Saint, Marshawn Lattimore but he really hasn’t had the impact they were hoping for.
The Commanders have allowed the opposing WR1 60+ yards in 5 of their L6 games and in a game where the Falcons are in need of a win to keep their season alive, look for Penix to go to his #1 early and often. Drake has seen 6+ targets in 8 of his L10 games and he’s cleared this line in 5 of his L10.
Season on the line, the Falcons already made the switch at QB; they’ve decided to buy into these young guys and see what they’ve got.
Drake London o59.5 Receiving Yards (-110) via BetOnline
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Terry McLaurin o64.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
The Falcons have not had a good time against opposing WR1 lately. Over their L10 games, they’ve given up 5+ receptions in 6 of their L7 games and allowing 70+ yards in 4 of those 7 games. Scary Terry has been firing on all cylinders this season and over the L10 weeks his target share has ballooned.
In those 10 games, Terry McLaurin recorded 6+ targets in 8 of 10, 70+ yards in 6 of 10 and 5+ receptions in 8 of 10. Terry’s been on fire and now with the post-season looming look for him to continue his stellar play.
This season, at home, Terry’s averaging 88.1 receiving yards and 5.5 receptions per game. He loves playing on that home field and he loves playing in the cold. The Falcons are a team that don’t play in the cold and this year have played just one game in the colder climate.
The Falcons traveled to Denver in mid-November, the offense scored just 6 points but the defense surrendered 38. The Broncos WR1, Courtland Sutton recorded 7 catches for 78 yards and the Broncos cruised to a blowout win. Tonight’s game has so much more on the line, the Falcons need a win to keep the season afloat and the Commanders are looking to secure a better seed in the NFC.
We’ve got a good one tonight in the Nation’s Capital, let’s see some fireworks from these rookie QBs.
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Terry McLaurin o64.5 Receiving Yards (-110) via BetOnline
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To Recap, NFL Bets for December 29th, 2024:
In the Falcons vs. Commanders game on Sunday, we’re rolling with 2 plays. Drake London Receiving Yards (-110), & Terry McLaurin o64.5 Receiving Yards (-110) .
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