Dallas Cowboys vs Pittsburgh Steelers: NFL Predictions, Odds & Best Bets

Cue up some Carrie Underwood, because Sunday Night Football has rolled around once again, and we’ve got quite the battle tonight! The Dallas Cowboys head up North to face the Pittsburgh Steelers on national television. After starting off a bit slow, the Cowboys are coming off a win and are 2-2 on the season. The Steelers sit on top of the AFC North at 3-1, but are coming off a tough loss to the Colts.

Dallas is off a mini bye week, beating the Giants in New York last Thursday Night. Both of their wins have come on the road this season, as they opened the year beating another AFC North team, the Cleveland Browns. The Cowboys offense isn’t necessarily clicking as well as they should, but they are scoring 26.5 points per game on the road. Will they be able to do that against the best defense in football?

The Steelers have played great through four weeks. They allowed just 26 total points in their first three weeks of play, but gave up 27 to the Colts on the road. At home, they let the Chargers score just twice in their 20-10 victory, and I see them doing a good job of shutting down Dallas. But could they put up enough points to take them down?

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Dallas Cowboys vs Pittsburgh Steelers: Sunday Night Football

Matchup Information – Cowboys vs Steelers

• Venue & Location: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh, PA)
• Date: Sunday, October 6th, 2024
• Kick Off: 8:20pm Eastern
• Broadcast: NBC/Peacock

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Spread

• Cowboys +2.5 (-104)
• Steelers -2.5 (-116)

Money Line

• Cowboys +125
• Steelers -145

Total

• Over 43.5 (-110)
• Under 43.5 (-110)

Dak Leads Dallas into Pittsburgh

Now, we’ve got the Cowboys sort of trending up, while the Steelers are in the “ever so sweet” bounce back spot at home. They find themselves as 3 point favorites, even though their offense doesn’t quite compare on paper. However, the Pittsburgh defense is good enough to win them football games on one side of the ball. No offense necessary.

Defensively, the Steelers totally have the edge. They rank 4th in yards allowed and 2nd in points, giving up just 261 yards of offense and 13.3 points per game. Dallas ranks in the 20s in both of those categories, but they are facing a very stale Steelers offense. Both offenses are middle of the pack in moving the ball, each going for roughly 320 yards per contest. However scoring is a totally different story.

The Cowboys are 12th in the NFL, putting up over 24 points per game so far this season. The Steelers are 23rd, putting up just 18.8. Nearly a touchdown difference between these two offenses, but one of them is much stronger on the defensive side of the ball. In primetime games, we see the defenses show out, and we will be betting on that tonight. The Cowboys are 3-1 to the over, while the Steelers are 3-1 to their unders. Dallas snuck over the total in Week 1 after allowing a garbage time touchdown to the Browns.

This game tonight is going to be competitive. I think it certainly stays within a touchdown on either side, which is why I will offer an alternate pick to my own in this contest.

Dallas Cowboys vs Pittsburgh Steelers Best Bets

Cowboys vs Steelers Prediction: Steelers Win & Cover, Under 44

Best Bet: Cowboys/Steelers Under 44 (-110) Bovada

We are backing the defenses in this primetime game once again. Now, if the under scares you, I would suggest teasing the Cowboys and the Under to whatever numbers you are comfortable with. Like I said, I see this being a tight, low scoring game, meaning Dallas should certainly keep it within 9 or 10 points. On the total, under 50 or 51 seems incredibly safe, as I don’t see either offense moving the ball in chunk yardage down the field.

Neither of these teams score in bunches very often, so I have no problem backing the under in this spot. The Steelers have only scored 6 total touchdowns in 4 games this year, all of them involving Justin Fields. On the other side of the ball, they’ve only allowed 5 total, 3 of them coming last week on the road. The Steelers should be able to shut down a Dak Prescott led offense that hasn’t found their groove and are playing away from home.

Bonus Bet: Rico Dowdle Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-114) BetOnline

We are also taking a stab at a running back receiving prop this evening. Dowdle has solidified himself as the clear RB1 in this offense, leading the team in RB targets, receptions, carries and rushing yards. Despite Hunter Luepke seeing more snaps last week, I thin Dowdle is capable of clearing this number.

He’s done so in 3 straight games, including on just one catch and target last week. Coming off a mini bye week, against a Steelers defense that gets tons of pressure, look for the Cowboys to scheme some RB screens for Dowdle to make plays with his legs. Pittsburgh is also allowing plenty of receiving yards to running backs this year as well, let’s look at the numbers.

Steelers D vs Receiving RBs

• Week 1: 5/5, 43 yards
• Week 2: 5/5, 48 yards
• Week 3: 3/3, 10 yards
• Week 4: 3/4, 20 yards

I think Mike McCarthy will help his QB on the road against this defense by scripting some easy dump offs for Rico Dowdle early and often in this game. With a number this low, it might only take one catch to clear this line.

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