CJ Stroud NFL MVP Odds 2023: Is the Texans QB a Serious Contender?

The Houston Texans have been defying expectations throughout the 2023 NFL season. They’re 5-4 through 10 weeks, putting them one game behind the Jacksonville Jaguars for the AFC South’s top spot.

While football is a team sport, a good chunk of the Texans’ early success can be attributed to one man: rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud.

"CJ Stroud is doing an outstanding job and these guys wanna play for him..

His confidence has rubbed off on this entire team and he's a guy that you can believe in"@DRyans59 #PMSLive #WeAreTexans pic.twitter.com/EUykZAFwxm

— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) November 14, 2023

Not only has the 22-year-old been playing like one of the best rookies from the 2023 draft class, but he’s also playing like one of the best players in the sport, period.

But has Stroud’s impressive start legitimized him as a potential NFL MVP candidate?

NFL MVP 2023 Odds Update — Week 11

NFL odds courtesy of Bovada as of Thursday, Oct. 16 at 9:25 a.m. ET.

• Jalen Hurts, PHI (+300)
• Patrick Mahomes, KC (+325)
• Lamar Jackson, BAL (+650)
• Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (+675)
• C.J. Stroud, HOU (+1200)
• Joe Burrow, CIN (+1200)
• Christian McCaffrey, SF (+1500)
• Brock Purdy, SF (+1800)
• Jared Goff, DET (+2000)
• Dak Prescott, DAL (+2800)
• Josh Allen, BUF (+3300)
• Trevor Lawrence, JAX (+5000)
• Tyreek Hill, MIA (+5000)

CJ Stroud NFL MVP Odds: Is He Legit?

A lot of pressure comes with being the second overall pick of any given draft. While some players crumble under lofty expectations, Stroud has looked like a consummate professional en route to catapulting himself into the 2023 NFL MVP race.

One thing that Stroud has made clear is that he has a beast of an arm, pacing the NFL with an average of 291.8 passing yards per game. He also has a league-best 0.6% interception percentage, throwing only two picks on 318 passing attempts.

For reference, 2022 MVP Patrick Mahomes has already thrown eight INTs after finishing with just 12 last season.

If you need to be convinced even more that Stroud is elite, here’s how he ranks for the following statistics:

• Passing yards: 2nd
• Passing yards per attempt: 3rd
• Passing touchdowns: T-9th
• Passer rating: 6th
• Longest pass: T-3rd
• Game-winning drives: T-5th

2 QBs have thrown 4x more TD than interceptions:

CJ Stroud (in MVP conversation)
Russell Wilson

— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) November 16, 2023

On top of that, below is a look at just how much the Texans’ offense has improved with Stroud under center compared to last year:

• 2022: 17.0 PPG (T-30th), 283.5 total YPG (31st), minus-7.7 scoring margin (30th)
• 2023: 24.1 PPG (10th), 372.6 total YPG (6th), plus-2.8 scoring margin (10th)

That’s without mentioning how the Rancho Cucamonga, CA native brings out the best in everyone around him. Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Noah Brown, and Dalton Schultz are all on pace for 800-yard campaigns while combining for 14 of Stroud’s 16 passing TDs so far.

Considering that an NFL MVP is supposed to be the player most crucial to their team’s success, it’s safe to say that Stroud perfectly fits that bill. Without his superstar-caliber play, chances are that the Texans would be looking at another top-10 draft pick.

So is Stroud a legitimate MVP candidate? Yes. If he wasn’t, he wouldn’t be putting up comparable numbers to other QBs who’ve been in the league much longer. As long as his play (and the Texans) doesn’t fall off, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t at least be in the discussion for the rest of the year.

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2023 NFL MVP Prediction Before Week 11

With his odds rising with each passing week, now is the time to capitalize on C.J. Stroud as the best 2023 NFL MVP pick.

But to become MVP, Stroud must maintain his high level of play AND, more than likely, help Houston finish as one of the AFC’s top teams. After all, each of the last six Most Valuable Players was from a team that finished first in their respective conference.

Fortunately, as of Week 11, the AFC is wide open. The Texans are only two games behind the conference-leading Kansas City Chiefs with eight games left to be played, meaning that finishing as the top seed might not be as big of a long shot as it appears.

And while fantasy football doesn’t always translate to on-field success, it’s worth noting that Stroud has the 11th-easiest remaining schedule when it comes to QBs, per Fantasy Pros. In other words, there’s no reason to believe in an incoming decline.

2023 NFL MVP Pick: CJ Stroud (+1200 on Bovada)

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2023 NFL MVP FAQ

How many quarterbacks have won NFL MVP?

• 46 quarterbacks have been named NFL MVP since the award was introduced in 1957.

Who was the last quarterback to win NFL MVP?

• Patrick Mahomes was the last QB to be named NFL MVP when he won the award in 2022. In fact, the award has been given to a quarterback in each of the last 10 seasons.

Which quarterback has won NFL MVP the most?

• Peyton Manning holds the all-time record for most NFL MVP wins, having won the award five times across his career (2003, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2013).

Has a rookie ever won NFL MVP

• Cleveland Browns legendary RB Jim Brown is the only rookie to have ever been named NFL MVP, doing so during the 1957 season.

Who won the last NFL MVP?

• Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes was named MVP for the 2022 NFL season.

How can I bet on the NFL MVP race?

• 2023 NFL MVP odds are available across all top sportsbooks. You can also bet on other major NFL futures, including Super Bowl LVIII, division winners, Offensive Rookie of the Year, and more on the following sportsbooks:

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