Chiefs vs. Bucs Week 4 SNF Betting: Can Brady Win Back-to-Back Games Against Mahomes?

Time has been flying by as we’re already approaching Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season. Another slate of exciting matchups is right around the corner, which includes a massive Sunday Night Football tilt as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Kansas City Chiefs for a Super Bowl LV rematch.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a game scheduled in Tampa on Oct. 2 against the Kansas City Chiefs, just three days after Ian is expected to be the most severe hurricane to strike the Tampa area. The team is working with the NFL to possibly move the game. https://t.co/sylGfuN3ZD pic.twitter.com/TEDed582UC

— Breaking Weather by AccuWeather (@breakingweather) September 26, 2022

The Chiefs’ perfect season came to a screeching stop when they were defeated, 20-17, by the Indianapolis Colts in Week 3. Kansas City’s offenses all but disappeared in the second half of the game, scoring only a field goal in the final two frames.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers also suffered their first loss, losing 14-12 to the Green Bay Packers. Tom Brady certainly felt the effects of his banged-up wide receiver room, however, he did connect with Russell Gage on 12 passes for 87 yards and a touchdown.

Betting News has gathered the latest Chiefs vs Bucs odds from BetOnline Sportsbook to help shed some light on the situation, along with a prediction and best bets for the NFL Week 4 game.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Week 4 Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs (2-1, 1-1 Away) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1, 0-1 Home)
• Venue & Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
• Date: Sunday, Oct. 2, 2022
• Game Time: 8:20 p.m. Eastern Time
• Chiefs vs Bucs Info: NBC, NFL+

Chiefs vs Buccaneers Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline as of Tuesday, Sept. 27 at 9:38 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Spread

• Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (-115)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5 (-105)

Over/Under

• Over 45.5 (-110)
• Under 45.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Kansas City Chiefs -132
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers +112

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Trends

• Kansas City is 13-3 straight up in its last 16 games.
• Tampa Bay is 11-3 straight up in its last 14 home games.
• Kansas City is 0-5 against the spread (ATS) in its last five road games against Tampa Bay.
• Tampa Bay is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against the AFC West.
• The total has hit the over in five of Kansas City’s last six road games.
• The total has hit the under in four of Tampa Bay’s last five games.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction and Picks

Chiefs vs Bucs Prediction: Bucs 23, Chiefs 21

Chiefs vs Bucs Picks: Bucs ML (Best Value: +112 at BetOnline) & Under 45.5 Points (Best Value: -110 at BetOnline)

Brady and Patrick Mahomes have met twice since the former joined the Buccaneers in 2020 — a regular-season meeting that same season, as well as at Super Bowl LV. The two sides proved to be evenly matched, splitting those meetings (however, Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl win was the much bigger deal).

However, a lot has changed since that. While many players are returning, Brady’s weapon arsenal is damaged, to say the least, while Mahomes no longer has No. 1 WR Tyreek Hill and just lost Sammy Watkins to the injured reserve.

Having said that, Brady will receive reinforcements as top pass-catching option Mike Evans returns from his one-game suspension. The future Hall-of-Famer has played below his usual standards this year, so the help will be appreciated.

The passing game might not be much of a factor depending on where the game is played. The aftermath of Hurricane Ian could create windy and rainy conditions, hurting both the passing and special teams units.

If the weather is too bad, the NFL is already considering moving the matchup to either Minneapolis, Minnesota or New Orleans, Louisiana. With neither team having home field advantage, a neutral site game could lead to unpredictable play.

If Chiefs and Bucs can't play in Tampa this weekend, the game could be moved to Minnesota or New Orleans. The NFL has not yet made any decisions about relocation. https://t.co/YTveVmARuA

— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) September 27, 2022

If the game is forced to be played on the ground, don’t expect a lot of offense. Kansas City and Tampa Bay are both among the top-10 run defenses this season.

In fact, there may not be that many points just because of how good the Buccaneers have been on defense. Todd Bowles’ defenders have allowed a league-low 9.0 points per game, as well as the fourth-fewest total yards.

The Buccaneers are going to look at what helped the Colts beat the Chiefs last week and try to replicate it. That means getting at Mahomes early and often, forcing him to get rid of the ball before he’s ready.

Mahomes was pressured on 22.5% of his dropbacks in that outing, while also being blitzed twice, hurried four times and even sacked once.

Meanwhile, the Bucs have one of the top pass rushes in the league, already racking up 11 sacks (T-No. 3). In other words, expect players like Devin White, Shaq Barrett and Vita Vea to get at Mahomes early and often.

At the end of the day, I do like the Buccaneers’ chances of victory just a bit more. I think that they’re a more complete team than the Chiefs and things will truly pick up once Brady starts rolling.

Aside from taking Tampa Bay pulling off an upset win at +112 odds, I’m also backing the under on the total. The reason I’m doing so is because of the unpredictability of Hurricane Ian, which could hurt the offense regardless of where the game is played.

More NFL Week 4 Stories on Betting News

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• Bills vs. Ravens Week 4 Betting: Who’ll Win the Jackson-Allen Showdown?
• Titans vs. Colts Week 4 Betting: Will Tennessee make it four straight wins in Indy?
• Rams vs. 49ers Week 4 MNF Betting: Can the Rams Finally Beat Their NFC West Rivals?