Patriots vs Steelers, Best Bets: December 7th, 2023
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Updated: Thu Dec 07, 2023, 18:17 PM
Read Time: 3 minutes
nfl
New England Patriots Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+5.5
-110
30
-109o
+220
Pittsburgh Steelers Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-5.0
-110
30
-106u
-255
Thursday Night Football is back and the total is one of the lowest of all time! The Pittsburgh Steelers host the New England Patriots with the over/under set at just 30 total points!
New England has lost 5 straight and is sitting at just 2-10 on the season, while the Steelers hold the Top Wild Card spot in the AFC.
You could argue the Steelers are more motivated, but Bailey Zappe is trying to make a name for himself in Boston.
No Kenny Pickett means Mitch Trubisky will get the start at home.
Can he lead the Steelers to victory? Or can the Patriots Zappe into Pittsburgh and steal a win?
Patriots vs Steelers Game Information
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Acrissure Stadium (Pittsburgh, PA)
- Date: Thursday, December 7th, 2023
- Kick Off: 8:15pm Eastern
- Broadcast: PRIME Video
Betting Odds
Spread
- Patriots +6 (-115)
- Steelers -6 (-105)
Moneyline
- Patriots +220
- Steelers -270
Total
- Over 30 (-110)
- Under 30 (-110)
Free NFL Picks: Patriots vs Steelers
How will Zappe do as the QB for New England?
Bailey Zappe leads the Patriots as they try and snap this 5 game losing streak.
The Patriots have scored an average of just 9.4 points over the L5 games, and just 12.3 over the course of the season, ranking dead last in the NFL.
This offense has been pathetic and needs to change. To make matters worse, the Patriots score just 10.8 points on the road, while the Steelers defense is one of the best in the league.
Pittsburgh has allowed just 19.1 PPG this season, and 15.7 points in their L3 games.
This under is this low for a reason, and we know the Primetime unders trend.
I’m not betting against it, certainly not with these two offenses, but I won’t be touching the total at all.
Instead for this one, I’ve got a player prop.
Free NFL Player Props: Patriots vs Steelers
Jaylen Warren Anytime Touchdown (+195)
Warren has secured a a solid role in this Pittsburgh offense
Najee Harris is questionable for Thursday Night Football after missing a walk through this week. I already thought the Steelers backs would get plenty of ground work, but for nearly +200, I like Warren to find the end zone.
Warren has 3 TDs on the season, all occurring in the L7 games. He’s seeing 11.4 carries per game in his L5, splitting time with Harris, and with the injury, this game could be Warren’s breakout moment.
The young RB averages 7.9 yards per attempt the L5 games, and has a 20+ yard rush in 3 of his L5 games.
I think he sees an increase in touches and finds some green grass to cash this for us.
Just a half unit sprinkle on the TD.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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