AFC Wild Card, Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills: NFL Odds & Best Bets

The NFL Wild Card weekend is once again Upstate New York as the Buffalo Bills are hosting the Denver Broncos to kick things off on Sunday. Josh Allen has advanced out of the divisional round just once in his career, and is 5-5 in his playoff career. However he is facing a rookie QB making his NFL postseason debut, and as nearly double digit favorites, you would think he’d be able to handle business.

The Bulls went 13-4 this season and are 8-0 at Highmark Stadium. Their last loss in Buffalo came against the Kansas City Chiefs in last year’s AFC Divisional round. The Bills are the 2nd highest scoring offense in the NFL, despite plenty of people (including myself) questioning who Allen might be throwing to, and their number’s increase by nearly 4 points at home. Buffalo ended the season losing to the Patriots, but won 10 of their L11 prior to Week 18.

Denver ended the season winning 5 of their L7 games in order to sneak into the final wild card spot. Bo Nix leads the Broncos in their first playoff game since winning Super Bowl 50 in 2016. Can they compete against Goliath on the road? Or will the Bills use this as a tune up game for whomever they face next?

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Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills: AFC Wild Card

Matchup Information – Broncos vs Bills

• Venue & Location: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, NY)
• Date: Sunday, January 12th, 2025
• Kick Off: 1:00pm Eastern
• Broadcast: CBS

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Broncos +9 (-115)
• Bills -9 (-105)

Money Line

• Broncos +395
• Bills -485

Total

• Over 47.5 (-110)
• Under 47.5 (-110)

Nix Starts Against Allen, Bills in First Playoff Game

Once again, another rookie QB makes an NFL postseason start in his first season. While Nix has a much taller task than Jayden Daniels against the Buccaneers, simply based on the spread, part of me thinks the Broncos could surprise some people. Denver is still a Top 10 offense in terms of scoring, and also ranks 3rd in the NFL in points allowed, giving up less than 20 per game. That number inflates to 21.3 on the road, and to 22.3 against playoff teams (excluding Week 18 against KC).

Denver also went just 1-5 against playoff teams this season, and will certainly have their hands full against this offense. They have struggled to slow down some high scoring offenses recently, allowing 30 to the Bengals (6th) and 34 to the Chargers (11th) in their final 3 weeks, while also giving up 32 to the Browns in Week 13, who rank dead last in scoring this year. They have struggled with having a solid RB all year long, and that will certainly force them to lean on their rookie QB on the road.

Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills Best Bets

Denver vs Buffalo Prediction: Buffalo Wins & Covers, Under 47.5

Best Bet: Buffalo -8.5 (-115) Bovada

This number has been dancing around all week but I think the Bills welcome Bo Nix to the NFL Postseason in dominant fashion. Denver went an incredible 12-5 ATS this year, but were just 4-5 covering as an underdog. While the Bills were 10-7 against the spread this year, they managed to cover 2 out of 3 spread bigger than one possession, and went 8-4 ATS as a favorite (excluding Week 18).

Josh Allen has been in this situation before. He knows the pressure he’s under has his playoff success rate has not been great, and things need to change before people’s doubts continue to grow. That starts with a dominating win over a much inferior team that is simply happy to be in the postseason. Buffalo has one four straight postseason games on Wild Card Weekend, and I see them having no problem doing the same thing on Sunday.

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