2022 NFL MVP Race Odds: Five Dark Horse Candidates to Consider

Although the start of the 2022 NFL season is still about five months away, it isn’t too early to talk about who the Most Valuable Player may be. After all, sportsbooks like BetOnline Sportsbook, MyBookie, and BetMGM have already begun releasing the 2022 NFL MVP odds.

As it stands, the list of favorites is completely dominated by quarterbacks, which should come as no surprise.

While they have a different order, each of the three aforementioned books has a consensus top four of Josh Allen, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, and Aaron Rodgers.

Three of the four have already won the award, while Allen is seeking his first. Rodgers is the reigning back-to-back winner and is one of only two players in NFL MVP history to win the award four times. If he can three-peat in 2022, he will tie Hall of Famer Peyton Manning for the all-time record.

Brady, who retired in February then unretired in March, will be looking to tie Rodgers with four MVP wins in a new era for the Tampa Bay Bucs, as former defensive coordinator Todd Bowles has taken over as head coach from the recently retired Bruce Arians.

Mahomes won the award in 2018, which was his first season as an NFL starting quarterback, and he will be attempting to become the ninth player to be named AP NFL MVP multiple times.

2022 NFL MVP Odds

BetOnline Sportsbook

• Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills +700
• Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs +700
• Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers +800
• Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers +1000
• Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers +1000
• Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys +1200
• Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals +1200

MyBookie

• Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs +700
• Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills +700
• Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers +800
• Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers +800
• Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals +1100
• Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers +1100
• Russell Wilison, QB, Denver Broncos +1300

BetMGM

• Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs +700
• Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers +700
• Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills +700
• Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers +900
• Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals +1200
• Russell Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos +1200
• Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers +1400

Even though Allen, Brady, Mahomes, and Rodgers are the current favorites, they aren’t guaranteed to win the award. In fact, it may not even go to one of the top MVP favorites, but maybe to a dark horse pick instead.

Here’s a look at five under-the-radar 2022 NFL MVP candidates.

2022 NFL MVP Dark Horses

1. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts (Best Value 2022 NFL MVP Odds: +5000 at BetOnline and MyBookie)

Jonathan Taylor had a campaign to remember in 2021. The 23-year-old former second-round draft pick paced the entire league last season when it came to carries (332), rushing yards (1,811) and touchdowns on the ground (18).

No other running back averaged more than Taylor’s 106.5 rushing yards per game, while his 2,171 total yards from scrimmage were also an NFL-best. Had it not been for his efforts, the Indianapolis Colts would’ve been a much worse team.

That’s why it’s important to keep an eye on Taylor as a potential 2022 NFL MVP dark horse. For starters, he was in contention for the award last season but fell out of the race after the Colts lost their final two games and missed the playoffs.

Having said that, he has the tools to get the job done in 2022. Next season will only be his third year in the league, so it’s possible that he could get even better. Plus, Indianapolis has one of the best offensive lines in the league, which opens the door for Taylor to make some explosive plays.

A running back hasn’t been named NFL MVP since Adrian Peterson did it in 2012. However, if the Colts make the 2022 playoffs, you can bet that Taylor will have played a huge role in that, making him an under-the-radar candidate.

2. Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals (Best Value 2022 NFL MVP Odds: +2500 at BetMGM)

One player who’s been involved in controversy this offseason is Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray.

The 24-year-old gunslinger has been in the news ever since his agent essentially demand that the Cardinals sign Murray to a long-term deal as soon as possible. It’s resulted in sources describing the quarterback as being “immature” and “selfish.”

Nevertheless, Murray is still one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He finished last season with 3,787 passing yards and 24 touchdowns to 10 interceptions in 14 starts, adding 88 carries for 423 rushing yards and five more scores.

Needless to say, his potential as a dual-threat is always attractive to award voters.

Murray and the Cardinals also play in the NFC West, one of the toughest divisions in football. Any team that finishes the campaign at the top of it deserves to have their quarterback in contention for the NFL MVP award.

Maybe Arizona didn’t make it as far as the San Francisco 49ers or Los Angeles Rams in the playoffs, but that doesn’t mean the Cardinals can’t challenge for the division crown in 2022.

If they’re in the race until the end, expect Murray to be in the MVP conversation.

3. Derek Carr, QB, Las Vegas Raiders (Best Value 2022 NFL MVP Odds: +4000 at BetMGM)

The quarterback position in the AFC West is absolutely stacked now that the Denver Broncos have acquired Russell Wilson from the Seattle Seahawks.

Three of the starting QBs in the division sit inside the top seven of BetMGM’s 2022 NFL MVP odds list, with the Las Vegas Raiders’ Derek Carr being the odd man out.

Nevertheless, Carr could use this motivation to go on an MVP run. After all, some fans continue to underrate the veteran signal-caller.

Carr has finished with 4,000-plus passing yards in each of the last four seasons, setting a career-high with 4,804 in 2021. He also had 23 passing TDs last year, however, he’ll need to lower his interception total (14) if he hopes to be in the NFL MVP conversation.

Aside from the Broncos, none of the AFC West teams has a stellar defensive unit. Any team can beat one of their divisional rivals on any given night, leaving the race somewhat open (although, it is Kansas City’s to lose).

If Carr can score some wins against the other AFC West teams and lead the Raiders to the division crown, it’d be hard to deny him MVP honors.

Plus, Las Vegas made the playoffs last season, so the foundation is there for success. If the Raiders can surround Carr with more talent and a better defense, the sky could be the limit for their success.

4. Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens (Best Value 2022 NFL MVP Odds: +2200 at BetMGM)

Lamar Jackson had a season to forget in 2021.

The former 2019 NFL MVP played only 12 games due to injury, finishing with 2,882 passing yards and 16 touchdowns to a career-worst 13 interceptions. He also finished with just 767 rushing yards and two TDs on 133 carries — his lowest totals since his rookie campaign.

Having said that, Jackson could still be a solid pick to be named 2022 NFL. For starters, the Baltimore Ravens will want to bounce back after six straight losses to close out the year forced them to miss the playoffs.

There’s also the fact that the Ravens will be looking to add another wideout to Jackson’s arsenal this offseason. Antonio Brown has made it clear that he’d like to play for the Baltimore QB.

Brown is one of the top wide receivers in the NFL when he’s healthy and stays out of trouble. If he can do that with the Ravens, Jackson could put up some serious numbers.

Assuming Jackson stays healthy next year too, few quarterbacks are better than him. At +2200, bettors should take advantage of the value that’s there before Jackson’s odds go up.

5. Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers (Best Value 2022 NFL MVP Odds: +10000 at BetOnline and MyBookie)

Expectations for Deebo Samuel were high after being drafted 36th overall at the 2019 NFL Draft by the San Francisco 49ers. While he faced his ups and downs in his first two seasons, he put things together in 2021.

Samuel proved that he could be an effective dual-threat last season. He finished with a career-best 77 receptions for 1,405 receiving yards and six touchdowns, adding 59 carries for 365 rushing yards and another eight TDs as well.

Few players can excel at catching and rushing as Samuel does. That alone makes him an intriguing 2022 NFL MVP dark horse. He’s a key cog behind the 49ers’ success and will be needed for an encore performance regardless of if Jimmy Garoppolo or Trey Lance is throwing him the ball next season.

If the 26-year-old wideout can replicate — or even improve upon — last season’s success, it’d be hard to deny him MVP consideration. Only time will tell if he has what it takes to take things to the next level.