Valero Alamo Bowl, #17 BYU vs #23 Colorado: NCAA Football Odds & Best Bets

The BYU Cougars and Colorado Buffaloes did not meet during the regular season. Thankfully the committee has paired these teams up to face off in a postseason bowl game despite playing in the same conference. The Valero Alamo Bowl, or as BYU QB Jake Retzlaff deemed it, the “People’s Big 12 Championship” takes place in San Antonio this Saturday.

These two teams were extremely close to meeting in the actual conference championship before both dropped a game (or two for BYU) in the last few weeks of the season. BYU finished 10-2 with Iowa State and Arizona State, while Colorado finished 9-3, however all four teams were 7-2 in Big 12 play. Several tiebreakers later, the Cyclones and Sun Devils battled it out in Dallas, but now we get the other two teams playing in Texas as well.

Deion Sanders says he expects everyone on Colorado to play, which includes Shedeur Sanders and Heisman Winner, Travis Hunter. The only real member I see possibly opting out is starting LB Nikhai Hill-Green who has signed with Alabama. As far as injuries go, starting CB Preston Hoge and DL Amari McNeil missed the regular season finale, as well as starting RT Phillip Houston. All have had several weeks to recover.

BYU’s stellar defense should have everyone besides starting S Crew Wakley who is not on the bowl game depth chart. Their offensive line is completely mixed up and filled with a couple back ups, as several starters have gone down with injures and thus been shifted around to protect Retzlaff. Alright, enough of that, let’s get into it!

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#17 BYU Cougars vs #23 Colorado Buffaloes: Alamo Bowl

Matchup Information – BYU vs Colorado

• Venue & Location: Alamodome (San Antonio, TX)
• Date: Saturday, December 28th, 2024
• Kick Off: 7:30pm Eastern
• Broadcast: ABC

Betting Odds

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Spread

• BYU+3.5 (-115)
• Colorado -3.5 (-105)

Money Line

• BYU +155
• Colorado -175

Total

• Over 55 (-110)
• Under 55 (-110)

The “People’s Big 12 Championship” in Alamodome

The Cougars not only lost 2 of 3 down the stretch, but they also barely scraped by Utah on the road. They have been floundering ever since starting 8-0, but now they can end this season on the right side of history. Despite all the NFL talent on Colorado’s roster, they are all expected to play in this game and risk injury prior to the draft. Of course I hope that doesn’t happen, but if I were months away from multiple millions of dollars guaranteed to play football, I might not risk it.

However I understand this is basically a consolation Big 12 Championship for these teams, and both will come well prepared. The Cougars boast a Top 20 defense in terms of scoring and yards allowed per contest. They also lead the nation in interceptions, and I fully expect Sanders to throw at least one with the volume he slings it. The Buffaloes are the 4th highest passing offense in the nation, but are bottom 30 in sacks allowed as well.

The BYU secondary will have their work cut out for them, but they rank 7th in opponent completion percentage, 11th in yards per pass. However, they are bottom 10 in getting to the QB, which means Sanders will probably have all day to find his open receivers down the field. For the Cougars, Retzlaff is a very mobile QB, who was 2nd on the team in carries and rushing yards this year, leading them in rushing TDs with 6. If Colorado fails to contain this mobile QB, he could find some success on the ground.

#17 BYU Cougars vs #23 Colorado Buffaloes Best Bets

BYU vs Colorado Prediction: Colorado Wins & Covers, Over 55

Best Bets: Colorado -3.5 (-105) BetOnline

We are backing the Buffaloes to finish strong. It’s hard to deny all the talent on their team, and they’ve proven they can score against solid defenses as they put up 49 against Utah who ranks 33rd in scoring defense. Colorado will certainly favor a shootout in this matchup, and that’s exactly what I see this game turning into. A little showcase before the draft for all of the prospects.

While the hook worries me a bit, I can’t see very many field goals coming into play with these two teams. I think we see lots of touchdowns, 4th down attempts and other events that will make this the most exciting non-CFP Bowl Game of this postseason (I hope). Give me the Buffs, but I’m also taking the BYU QB to do some work on the ground.

Bonus Bets: Jake Retzlaff Over 25.5 Rushing Yards (-114) Bovada

Retzlaff is BYU’s 2nd leading rusher, averaging 28.2 yards on 7.8 carries per game this year. He runs for over 4.2 yards per carry, and despite Colorado ranking 8th in sacks defensively, BYU is Top 20 at protecting their QB. Retzlaff will also have plenty of designed runs as well as both of his games with double digit carries came away from home.

The QB has cleared 26 yards in 7/12 games this year, with a double digit run in 10 of those games. He’s plenty of a threat with his arm, and BYU has a solid RB, so some RPOs or rollouts could be Colorado’s kryptonite. All season long, the Buffs have failed to contain mobile QBs.

Mobile QBs vs Colorado

• Cam Miller (NDSU): 16-81-2, Long 20
• Sawyer Robertson (BAY): 9-82-1, Long 45
• KJ Jefferson (UCF): 20-76-1, Long 23
• Avery Johnson (KSU): 7- (-15)-1, Long 10
• Noah Fifita (AZ): 12-24, Long 24
• Brendan Sorsby (CIN): 9-48, Long 21
• Jalon Daniels (KU): 6-72, Long 31

Aside from sacking Avery Johnson and containing him, they’ve allowed a 20+ yard rush to every other dual threat QB they’ve seen. Retzlaff has ran for a 28+ yard rush in 3 games this year, and I see him having no issue going over this number.

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