UTSA vs Troy (2022 Cure Bowl) Prediction & Picks: Roadrunners, Trojans seek 12th win in Orlando

One of the most compelling matchups of college football bowl season will take place right out of the gate. UTSA and Troy will face off this afternoon in the 2022 Duluth Trading Cure Bowl in Orlando, Florida, with both teams looking to end the season with 12 wins.

UTSA (11-2, 8-0 Conference USA), who won the Conference USA crown for the second straight year, is looking for its first bowl win in its fourth appearance.

Troy (11-2, 7-1 Sun Belt), meanwhile, is looking to extend its bowl win streak to five in the program’s first bowl appearance since the 2018 Dollar General Bowl (which is now the LendingTree Bowl). In Jon Sumrall’s first season as head coach, the Trojans won the Sun Belt title for the seventh time and for the first time since 2017.

This matchup is especially intriguing because of the contrasting ways that the two teams have achieved success this season. For UTSA, a high-powered offense has led the way, but the defense has been the standout unit for Troy.

Which team will end the season on a winning note? Read on for our UTSA vs Troy prediction, as well as our 2022 Cure Bowl betting picks and analysis.

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UTSA Roadrunners vs Troy Trojans Odds – 2022 Duluth Trading Cure Bowl

Game odds are via BetOnline as of Friday, December 16, 2022, at 10:55 am ET. Odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites may also appear in this article.

Spread

• UTSA -2.5 (-115)
• Troy +2.5 (-105)

Over/Under

• Over 56.5 (-110)
• Under 56.5 (-110)

Monyeline

• UTSA -142
• Troy +118

Will UTSA’s Outstanding Offense Outduel Troy’s Tough Defense?

Last season’s UTSA team, which won 12 games and lost to San Diego State in the Frisco Bowl featured one of the more explosive offenses in the country. They averaged 36.9 points per game, which was tied for 11th in the FBS, and averaged 439.0 yards per game, which ranked 34th.

But despite having to replace star running back Sincere McCormick, this year’s team has been even more explosive.

Entering bowl season, the Roadrunners are ninth in the FBS in yards per game (486.1) and 12th in scoring (38.7 PPG). Those numbers are the best among Group of Five teams.

They scored 30+ points in all but one game–a 41-20 loss at Texas in which they led 17-7 in the second quarter–and hit the 40-point mark seven times, including in a 48-27 win over North Texas in the C-USA title game.

They don’t have a 1,000-yard rusher this year, but their rushing yards per game only dropped from 183.5 to 177.5, thanks to having three players combine for exactly 2,000 yards on the ground.

The aerial attack has taken a major leap this season, going from 255.5 yards per game last season to 308.6 yards per game this season, which ranks 12th in the country.

Sixth-year senior Frank Harris–who will be returning for a seventh season as the Roadrunners move to the AAC next year–has been outstanding. He has completed 71.1 percent of his passes for 3,865 yards and 31 touchdowns (with only seven interceptions), and he has run for 588 yards and nine scores.

Troy enters the Cure Bowl having scored 34, 48, and 45 points in their last three games, but defense is largely why they are here.

The Trojans have held nine teams to fewer than 20 points, and they did a decent job against two of the country’s most prolific offenses.

In their season opener at Ole Miss, they allowed only 28 points and 433 yards against the Rebels, who are averaging 34.2 PPG and 491.3 yards per game this season overall.

And in a win at Western Kentucky, they allowed only 27 points to the Hilltoppers, who are averaging 35.8 PPG.

UTSA vs Troy Prediction and Picks

Roadrunners vs Trojans Prediction: UTSA to win

Roadrunners vs Trojans Picks: UTSA ML (Best Value: -129 at BetUS)

In trying to determine which way to go with my UTSA vs Troy prediction and picks, I pondered this: Which team is likeliest to win if one side has to play to the other side’s strength?

If it’s a shootout, UTSA will win nine times out of ten.

Troy QB Gunnar Watson has thrown for 300+ yards four times this season, including in the Sun Belt championship win over Coastal Carolina. But the Trojans don’t run the ball well, ranking 106th in both yards per game (121.6) and yards per attempt (3.5).

If it’s a low-scoring game, Troy’s chances go up exponentially. But the odds are still favorable for UTSA, who ranks fifth in C-USA in yards per game (404.8 (YPG) and third in scoring defense (26.5 PPG).

The Roadrunners are also tied for 19th in the FBS in interceptions (13), which is something to watch for when Watson has been picked off ten times and has thrown an interception in nine of the 12 games that he has played in this season.