#11 USC vs #18 Michigan: NCAA Football Predictions, Odds, & Best Bets (9/21)

Big Ten football has a couple of Top 25 conference matchups this weekend and I am here for it. Not only do #24 Illinois and #22 Nebraska go head to head Friday Night, but the #11 USC Trojans travel to the Big House to take on the 18th ranked Michigan Wolverines. Sit down, buckle up, cause we are in for a wild ride.

The Trojans are thrown into the gauntlet for their first ever Big Ten conference matchup, as they face the defending National Champions in Ann Arbor. USC had a huge win over LSU to start the season in Las Vegas, and shutout Utah State last week in a dominating win. Miller Moss looks like an NFL-ready quarterback, and the Trojan defense has certainly stepped up from last season. However, both have a tall task as Moss faces a Wolverines’ defense that is still very good, along with a new face at QB which could revamp this offense.

After 3 games, it looks like Davis Warren will be benched in order to start dual threat Alex Orji. While he is more of a dual threat that Warren, I’m not sure he will have what it takes to amplify this Michigan offense, but we will see for sure on Saturday. Being at home will obviously make it easier, and it’s not like its a new offense to this kid. On the flip side, USC made light work of the LSU Tigers, who I might rank higher offensively than the Wolverines.

However, this Michigan team might be completely different with Orji at the helm. Can he lead them to a home upset at the Big House? Or will Miller Moss and USC take down the Wolverines?

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#11 USC Trojans vs #18 Michigan Wolverines: Big Ten Football

Matchup Information – USC vs Michigan

• Venue & Location: Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, MI)
• Date: Saturday, September 21st, 2024
• Kick Off: 3:30pm Eastern
• Broadcast: CBS

Betting Odds

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Spread

• USC -5.5 (-105)
• Michigan +5.5 (-115)

Money Line

• USC -200
• Michigan +175

Total

• Over 44.5 (-110)
• Under 44.5 (-110)

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USC’s First Taste of the Big Ten

While I understand Alex Orji may be a bit of a step up from Davis Warren, I don’t think it will be enough to lead the Wolverines past this USC defense. While the Trojans did allow over 400 yards to the LSU Tigers, they were able to force an interception and limit their movement on the ground. USC is allowing just 102 rushing yards per game with a very much improved front 7. If they are able to stop the run, taking Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings out of the game, they will force Orji to use his arm to beat them. This ultimately helps the Trojans in my opinion, as Orji is prone to make impulsive throws that result in mistakes, right up USC’s wheelhouse.

Orji has only thrown 7 passes in his career for the Wolverines, and I see them utilizing his running ability as much as they can on Saturday. While this may make it easier, I do not think they will be efficient enough to keep up witht he Trojans. Miller Moss is going to air it out, plain and simple. It is much easier to attack the Michigan defense in the secondary, rather than trying to run between the tackles. Luckily for USC, Moss has looked great, his wideouts are stepping up and making plays, and I think he can find plenty of success this weekend.

Moss has thrown for over 600 yards and 2 TDs this season, and sat out most of the 2nd half against Utah State. He has stepped up in big games for the Trojans, and I see him doing that again at Michigan. I trust Lincoln Riley to be able to attack this defense through the air, allowing for big chunk plays, plenty of scores, daring the Wolverines to try and keep up with Orji’s arm. As for betting this game, I will be backing the Trojans and a player prop in this matchup.

USC Trojans vs Michigan Wolverines Best Bets

USC vs Michigan Prediction: USC Wins & Covers

Best Bets: USC -5.5 (-105) BetOnline

To be honest, I booked this earlier in the week at (-110) when I thought it would move the other way. Regardless, we ride with the Trojans and you can pay less juice than I did. I simply see Trojan domination this Saturday. Michigan’s defense (and offense) struggled severely when Texas came to town. Why should this game be any different?

USC has a rock solid QB who isn’t afraid to stand in the pocket and make tough throws. They have a much improved defense who is hungry to help this team win, and they are facing a Michigan team dealing with plenty of internal issues that need sorting out. This is the perfect spot for the Trojans to win by a touchdown.

Bonus Bets: Jo’Quavious “Woody” Marks Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-114) BetOnline

We will also be taking the Trojans’ RB, Mr. Jo’Quavious “Woody” Marks to go over his receiving line. Now this was listed at 15.5 earlier this week, so do your line shopping as always, but 20+ for this guy shouldn’t be a problem. We actually backed his rushing yards against LSU and cashed, but against Michigan I think he gets involved through the air.

For starters, he has 3 receptions in both games so far this season, totaling 46 receiving yards. Now he only cashed this line last week, but Michigan struggles to defend running backs running routes. Fresno State’s RB Malik Sherrod caught 2 passes for 10 yards and Jayden Blue of Texas had 6 catches for 37 yards and a TD. I think the Trojans utilize Marks out of the backfield as a pass catcher, and all we need is a couple dump offs to cash this line.

Marks is a prolific runner, so assuming he has 1 or 2 designed screens in this game, he shouldn’t have a problem clearing this line for us. Give me the Trojans and Marks to run all over the Wolverines in Michigan on Saturday.

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