#23 USC vs #13 LSU: NCAA Football Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (9/1)

Week 1 of College Football leaks into both Sunday and Monday as we have a couple of standalone games on the slate. Sunday Night Football this week features a Top 25 matchup between a new Big Ten team and a familiar face in the SEC. The #23 ranked USC Trojans take on the #13 LSU Tigers, but this isn’t a home game for either team. This matchup takes place in Sin City at Allegiant Stadium, making it much closer to the Trojans of Southern Cal.

Brian Kelly leads his Tigers team out for another season after losing his starting QB and both of his top 2 receivers, all of whom were 1st round picks in this year’s NFL Draft. Garrett Nussmeier takes over for Jayden Daniels, and he will also have a new play caller in Joe Sloan. Nussmeier started the Tigers’ bowl game and threw for 395 yards and 3 TDs in a win against Wisconsin. Even after losing Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., they have plenty of young guns available at WR to have a breakout season while building their rushing attack.

The Trojans now compete in the Big Ten Conference and find themselves with a new QB. Lincoln Riley didn’t land anyone in the transfer portal, as USC plans to start Miller Moss after he threw for 372 yards and 6 TDs in the Holiday Bowl last season. He is backed up by UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava, who could take over is Moss can’t get the job done early in the season. Will the Trojans be able to win this game on a neutral site? Or will the Tigers come to play in Week 1?

#23 USC vs #13 LSU: Top 25 Matchup in Sin City

Matchup Information – USC vs LSU

• Venue & Location: Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas, NV)
• Date: Sunday, September 1st, 2024
• Kick Off: 7:30pm Eastern
• Broadcast: ABC

Betting Odds

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Spread

• USC +4 (-105)
• LSU -4 (-115)

Money Line

• USC +165
• LSU -190

Total

• Over 64 (-110)
• Under 64 (-110)

Miller Moss Takes Over for the USC Trojans

LSU was initially favored by 6 points in this game, maybe even 6.5 at some books, but it has now settled around the 4 point mark. There may be a little buzz around this Trojans team, and the fact that this game is much closer to LA on a Sunday Night makes me believe in them a little more. While I’m not totally sold on Miller Moss to lead this squad, Mississippi State transfer Woody Marks could take some pressure off of him. Marks is one of the best all around running backs in the nation, and he could be a breakout star for this USC offense that will certainly miss Caleb Williams.

As for their defense….. get ready to vomit.

Horrendous Defenses Go Head to Head

The Trojans ranked 117th amongst 130 teams last season in scoring defense, allowing 34.4 points per game. Yes they scored a ton last year, but the offense won’t keep them in the fight as much as they did last year. The USC Defense has a completely new coaching staff, but I think it will take a few games to really turn around this dumpster fire. They ranked 114th in yards allowed per game, letting opponents go for over 430 yards last season. USC lacks depth in this defensive unit, and I think it will hurt them down the stretch.

Now, the LSU Tiger’s defense isn’t that great either. They allowed almost 30 points per game last year and nearly 425 yards to opponents. The Tiger’s strength remains up front on the D-Line, but like the Trojans, they certainly lack depth on defense. Ultimately, both teams are going to rely on their offense all season long to carry them to victory, much like last season. These were the two highest scoring offenses in the nation last year, and while they did take a step back, the schemes will be similar, and the defenses didn’t necessarily improve at all either.

I see both teams competing in a lot of shootouts this season, just like last year. Just a season ago, LSU was 12-1 to their Over, while USC was 10-3, both putting up 40+ points per game on their own.

USC vs LSU Best Bets

USC vs LSU Prediction: LSU Wins, USC Covers, Over 64

Best Bets: USC/LSU Over 64 (-110) BetOnline

It’s Sunday Night Football, and we’re rooting for some points. These defenses suck. Yes, the stats are from last season, but I didn’t see any improvement from either side in the offseason. Personally, I think both of these teams are in for a very rude awakening. Last season, both squads relied on their offense for wins all season long, and it burned them at some point.

In all of USC’s losses last year, they gave up over 41 points per game, while failing to score 30+ in 3 of those contests. As for LSU, they allowed over 47 points in their 3 losses last season, failing to score 30 twice. All 3 of those games were away from home for the Tigers, whose defense was already giving up 29 per game and over 37 on the road. While both offenses will have plenty to replace with Williams and Daniels leaving for the NFL, I think they are both still capable of moving the ball against these horrendous defensive unit.

In a standalone, nationally televised game on Sunday Night, I see both offenses coming out firing, while the defenses experience the same struggles they did last season. Everyone wants to root for points, but not everyone has looked past College Football Saturday yet. We are snagging this line at 64, with it already creeping to 64.5 at some books. I could see it climbing to 65-66 by kick off, which should lead to another CLV victory. What could go wrong?

Bonus Bets: Jo’Quavious “Woody” Marks Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-114) BetOnline

We had to find another bet in this matchup, and we are taking the USC RB to run all over LSU’s defense. Yes, their interior line is the best part of their defense, however Marks does not have any competition at all in the backfield. He will be getting over 90% of the carries, and we are catching the books with their pants down.

Nobody knows what this guy’s line should be. I’ve seen 65.5, 66.5 for plus money, even up to 69.5, yet here at BetOnline, we are getting a 10 yard discount. I see the line settling around 65 come Sunday Night, and even though USC is not a “rush first” offense, if you give this kid the necessary touches, he will get you some yards. Last season, Marks ran for 120+ yards in his first two games, averaging just 21.5 carries. Against an LSU defense that allowed 160 yards on the ground last season, Marks ran for 75 yards on just 8 touches. The Tigers also gave up 4.4 yards per rush attempt last year, so I think Marks could have a field day in his first game as a Trojan.

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