Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl, Tulane vs Florida: NCAA Predictions, Odds & Best Bets

The Florida Gators are staying in the Sunshine State as the Tulane Green Wave travel to face them in the Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa this afternoon. Tulane was drilled in the AAC Championship by Army and lost two straight to end the season, while the Gators were building some momentum.

After starting 1-2 with two early Power 4 losses, the Green Wave rallied for 8 straight wins over the next few months, eventually losing to Memphis in the regular season finale and to the Black Knights in the conference championship. Now they find themselves in the Gasparailla Bowl without their starting QB, who has already committed to Duke.

The Gators also started off 1-2, losing to Miami and Texas A&M at home. They ended up going 4-4 in SEC play, but rallied to win their last three games, including upsets over #22 LSU, #9 Ole Miss, and over their rival, Florida State. Things are moving in the right direction for the Gators, and with a true freshman QB leading the team, I see them coming fired up to cap off the season with a bowl win.

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Tulane Green Wave vs Florida Gators: Gasparilla Bowl

Matchup Information – Tulane vs Florida

• Venue & Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)
• Date: Friday, December 20th, 2024
• Kick Off: 3:30pm Eastern
• Broadcast: ESPN2

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Tulane +10 (-105)
• Florida -10 (-115)

Money Line

• Tulane +315
• Florida -385

Total

• Over 49 (-112)
• Under 49 (-108)

Gators Stay in Florida Hosting Green Wave in Gasparilla

Let’s talk transfers and opts outs! Tulane’s Head Coach just signed an extension so he is likely staying with the team, however QB Darian Mensah has committed to Duke and will likely not play, as well as starting DE Matthew Fobbs-White who has committed to Baylor. Tulane will be led by Oregon transfer Ty Thompson, whose name also happens to be in the portal.

Thompson was used in various packages this season, going 6/11 through the air for 74 yards and 2 TDs while carrying the ball 40 times for 242 yards and 6 TDs on the ground.

Now, Tulane was the 10th highest scoring offense in the FBS. I doubt they keep up 35.9 points per game with Thompson at QB, but they should still be able to move the ball against a Florida defense that couldn’t stop anybody this season. The Gators rank 68th in the nation, giving up 26 PPG, ranking 96th in yards per game allowed, giving up over 400 yards of offense on average. Their rushing defense that allowed just 4 yards per rush will be tested, and I expect them to give up much more than the 165 ground yards they allowed per game this season.

Tulane should come with a very heavy rushing attack with Thompson leading the charge, and I do see them having success. The team already is Top 10 in rush play percentage, running the ball almost 63% of the time, but they run for nearly 5 yards a carry and over 200 per game. Defensively they might have their hands full with the way the Gators have been moving the ball recently, but I still think the Green Wave have the bodies to keep this one close.

Tulane Green Wave vs Florida Gators Best Bets

Tulane vs Florida Prediction: Florida Wins, Tulane Covers, Over 49

Best Bets: Tulane TT Over 17.5 (-120) Bovada

I know this might be scary as the backup QB will be leading the offense, but I do not trust the Gators defense and I will be fading them one more time this season.

Let’s not forget Tulane was a Top 10 scoring offense, and Thompson saw plenty of snaps. Florida has faced some other high flying offenses and allowed them to do whatever they please.

Florida vs High Scoring Offenses

• Miami: 41 points (1st)
• Tennessee: 17 points (15th)
• Georgia: 34 points (30th)
• Texas: 49 points (24th)
• Ole Miss: 17 points (18th)

Sure, the Gators have been playing better ball recently, but they are fine with turning this game into a shootout, as the offense has been firing on all cylinders. I like Tulane to compete and keep this game close, more than likely covering the spread. But ultimately I think they are good for 3 touchdowns against this Florida defense.

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