Troy vs Texas State Prediction, Odds & Picks: Will Troy’s Defense Tame the Bobcats?

The first two months of the college football season, things have gone rather well for the Sun Belt Conference. Entering the final week of October, ten of the conference’s 14 teams are above .500. One of the more intriguing matchups on Saturday’s slate is a matchup of two of those teams, as Troy and Texas State will square off in San Marcos (7:00 pm ET, ESPN+).

Since dropping their Sun Belt opener to James Madison, who is now 7-0 and entered the two major polls this week, the Trojans (5-2, 2-1 Sun Belt) have won four straight games, including conference wins over Georgia State and Arkansas State.

While Troy is no stranger to success, the same can’t be said for Texas State, which entered this season with eight consecutive losing seasons and no bowl appearances since making the move from the FCS to the FBS in 2012.

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But the Bobcats (5-2, 2-1 Sun Belt) have been a major success story in G.J. Kinne’s first season as head coach, and with five games left, they are approaching their best season since finishing 7-5, 5-3 in their second season in the Sun Belt nine years ago.

Will Texas State pick up their sixth win of the season tomorrow? Troy is favored by almost a touchdown, and the Trojans will be looking to maintain a formidable record against the Bobcats.

Troy vs Texas State Odds

Courtesy of Bovada.

Spread

• Troy -6.5 (-115)
• Texas State +6.5 (-105)

Over/Under

• Over 53 (-115)
• Under 53 (-105)

Moneyline

• Troy -260
• Texas State +215

Will Defense Continue to Deliver for Troy?

In their second game of the season, the Trojans allowed six touchdowns and 42 points in a blowout loss versus Kansas State.

There’s no shame in losing to the Wildcats in Manhattan. But allowing the most points of Jon Sumrall’s short tenure clearly did not sit well.

Since that loss, Troy has allowed just five offensive touchdowns and 48 total points in five games, including four touchdowns and 34 points in their current four-game win streak.

When they were last in action two weeks ago, they blanked Army 19-0 on the road. In the victory, the Trojans allowed only 255 total yards and forced four turnovers, and they limited the Black Knights to just 3.3 yards per carry.

Entering today, Troy ranks high in the FBS in a number of defensive categories.

National Defensive Rankings for Troy

• Rushing Yards Allowed Per Attempt: 8th (2.94)
• Fewest First Downs Allowed: 9th (109)
• Third-Down Conversion Defense: 19th (31.2%)
• Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: T-19th (184.0)
• Team Passing Efficiency Defense: 27th

Can the Trojans keep it up in San Marcos?

Well, they may be in for one of their toughest tests of the season, as the Bobcats have one of the most potent offenses in college football.

National Offensive Rankings for Texas State

• Total Yards Per Game: 8th (489.6)
• Rushing Yards Per Game: 15th (207.0)
• Passing Efficiency: 26th

Bobcats quarterback T.J. Finley, formerly of LSU and Auburn, is 19th in the FBS in completion percentage (68.9%) and 26th in yards per attempt (8.7).

Also, running back Ismail Mahdi, a transfer from Houston Christian, is averaging 7.4 yards per carry and has scored ten total touchdowns this season (eight rushing, one receiving, one kickoff return).

But Texas State is up against some highly unfavorable history against Troy ahead of this matchup.

The two teams have met 12 times, and Texas State’s lone win to date came in 1997, when they defeated the Trojans 31-17 in Southland Conference action.

Since Texas State joined Troy in the FBS, the Trojans have an 8-0 head-to-head record, which includes three wins in San Marcos (2016, 2019, and 2021).

However, Troy’s wins in each of the past two seasons were both by three points, and this is as good a year as any for the streak to end, with a new coaching staff and new personnel trying to lead the Bobcats to heights that the program has not seen on this level.

Troy vs Texas State Prediction and Picks

Prediction: Texas State to win

Picks: Texas State +6.5 (-105 at Bovada) & Texas State team total over 23.5 points (-110 at Bovada)

Where to Bet on College Football

Most top online sportsbooks offer a wide variety of college football odds throughout the season.

In addition to being able to make weekly college football picks all the way from Week Zero to the College Football Playoff National Championship, you can also bet on Heisman Trophy odds, conference championship odds, win totals, and much more.

There are plenty of sports betting sites you can choose from that are good for college football betting. Below are some of the books that we highly recommend:

• BetDSI
• BetOnline
• BetUS
• Bookmaker
• MyBookie
• Sportsbetting.ag

If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds.

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