Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Betting: Wildcats favored at home despite Martinez’s potential absence

After picking up wins over Oklahoma State and Kansas State, TCU has the inside track on a berth in this year’s Big 12 championship game.

This Saturday, the Cowboys and Wildcats will meet in Manhattan, with the winner moving into position to potentially face the Horned Frogs in Arlington on December 3.

After seeing their College Football Playoff aspirations likely go up in smoke by blowing a 17-point lead at TCU, Oklahoma State found themselves in a perilous position against Texas last Saturday.

But they overcame a two-touchdown deficit to topple the Longhorns late, remaining in a strong position to return to the Big 12 title tilt.

Like OSU, K-State had TCU on the ropes in Fort Worth on Saturday. And like the Cowboys, the Wildcats let the Horned Frogs off the hook, with injuries to both starting QB Adrian Martinez and backup Will Howard playing a key role as TCU rallied from down 28-10 with 28 unanswered points.

Which of these teams will enter November in control of their destiny? The Wildcats are currently slight favorites, but could that change before gametime based on Martinez’s status?

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: #9 Oklahoma State (6-1, 3-1 Big 12) vs. #22 Kansas State (5-2, 3-1 Big 12)
• Venue & Location: Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium (Manhattan, Kansas)
• Date: Saturday, October 29, 2022
• Game Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern Time (2:30 p.m. local time)
• How to Watch Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State: FOX

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline.

Spread

• Oklahoma State +1.5 (-110)
• Kansas State -1.5 (-110)

Over/Under

• Over 56.5 (-110)
• Under 56.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Oklahoma State +104
• Kansas State -125

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Updated Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Friday, October 28 at 10:20 p.m. Eastern.

Spread

• Oklahoma State +1.5 (-110)
• Kansas State -1.5 (-110)

Over/Under

• Over 55.5 (-114)
• Under 55.5 (-106)

Moneyline

• Oklahoma State +102
• Kansas State -122

Can the Wildcats Win Without Martinez?

There isn’t a great deal of available information at this point about Martinez’s injury and his status for the matchup with Oklahoma State.

Martinez didn’t play after the game’s first drive, with experienced backup Will Howard taking over in relief.

But not only did Kansas State survive without Martinez, they thrived without him. Initially, at least.

On his first four drives, Howard led K-State to four consecutive touchdowns, which saw them lead 28-10 with 8:09 left in the first half.

Then the Wildcats didn’t score again.

Final Seven Drives for Kansas State vs. TCU

• Punt
• End of half
• Missed field goal
• Interception
• Downs
• Missed FG
• Interception

Howard was injured in the second half, which brought about two key plays.

First, on the drive after TCU took a 31-28 lead late in the third quarter, third string QB Jake Rubley was picked off. The Horned Frogs didn’t capitalize on that drive, but on the next drive, the Wildcats went for it on 4th and 1 from their own 30 and Rubley was stopped.

This time, TCU did take advantage, punching it four plays later to extend their lead to 10. Howard did return, but the second missed field goal all but ended their hopes.

In relief of Martinez, Howard was 13 of 20 for 225 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. He also ran for 31 yards and a touchdown on nine attempts.

Howard has been riding the pine this year but has a lot of experience from the previous two seasons, and he showed he is more than capable of leading K-State if Martinez can’t go against Oklahoma State.

It would certainly help if Deuce Vaughn were to get more touches. He had 10 carries (for 23 yards against Iowa State and 12 (for 83 yards) against TCU.

While it is nice that he did catch four passes for 38 yards in Fort Worth, he will need 20+ touches against Oklahoma State if Martinez is out.

In Big 12 play, the Pokes have bent quite a bit, and they have allowed three 100-yard rushers this year. So, they are certainly not impenetrable, and it would be negligent to not give Vaughn a proper chance to get his.

Can Sanders Play a Clean Game on the Road?

Martinez has been one of college football’s nice quarterback redemption stories this season, following four tough years at Nebraska.

Oklahoma State’s Spencer Sanders continues to be another, as well as Oregon’s Bo Nix and TCU’s Max Duggan.

Saturday was another tale in Sanders’ redemption arc, after he completed only 16 of 36 passes and committed two huge turnovers to help TCU turn things around.

Against Texas, Sanders completed 34 of 57 passes for 391 yards and two touchdowns. He overcame an interception that turned a potential 24-all game into a 31-17 Texas lead, making multiple big plays on the Cowboys’ final two scoring drives as they scored the tying and go-ahead touchdowns.

Bryson Green! Oklahoma State takes the lead 💪#Big12FB x @CowboyFB

📺 ABC – @ESPNCFB pic.twitter.com/4xG11xhuGB

— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) October 22, 2022

It’s imperative that Sanders avoid the rollercoaster in Manhattan, however, especially if Martinez is out. You don’t want to give a team an additional boost of confidence and a shorter field to work with.

That said, he does seem much more equipped to overcome mistakes and setbacks than he did at this time last year. So, if Kansas State does get a takeaway or two, they need to make the most of those opportunities.

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Prediction & Best Bets

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Prediction: Oklahoma State to win

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Best Bets: Oklahoma State to cover (Best Value: +1.5 @ -109 at BetUS)

The Cowboys would be in the thick of the CFP mix were it not for letting things slip against TCU, who certainly deserves as much credit for what they did as Okie State deserves criticism for not sealing the deal.

Would I put them on the same level as the likes of Georgia, Ohio State, and potentially Alabama and/or Michigan? No.

But this is a team that, over the last couple of seasons, has come up big more often than not in close games and when faced with adversity in tough games against quality opposition.

They could find themselves in the same position in Manhattan, and while things didn’t end well against TCU, I have a lot of confidence in Oklahoma State to get the job done in a potentially tight game, even if Martinez plays.

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