New Mexico State vs Liberty Prediction & Conference USA Championship Game Best Bets: Will the Flames Be Too Much for the Aggies?
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Last Updated: Thu Nov 30, 2023, 15:20 PM
Read Time: 5 minutes
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New Mexico State Aggies Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+13.5
-115
87
+100o
+650
Liberty Flames Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-6.5
-150
90
-110u
-650
A few years ago, the Liberty Flames were new to the FBS, and the New Mexico State Aggies were one of the worst programs in the highest level of college football. Tomorrow night, they will face off for the Conference USA championship (7:00 pm ET, CBS Sports Network).
After spending their first five seasons in the FBS as an independent, Liberty made the move to a new-look Conference USA for this season.
After winning 40 games in their first five FBS seasons under former coaches Turner Gill and Hugh Freeze, the Flames have had an outstanding campaign under new coach Jamey Chadwell, led by quarterback Kaidon Salter and the best rushing attack in the country.
Bet on New Mexico State vs Liberty and Other College Football Conference Championship Games at BetDSI
If the 12-0 Flames can make it a baker’s dozen and down the Aggies for the second time this season, their attention will turn to Saturday’s American Athletic Conference title tilt between Tulane and SMU.
If the Mustangs can defeat the Green Wave, Liberty would almost certainly earn a berth to a New Year’s Six Bowl as the highest-ranked Group of Five team in Sunday’s final College Football Playoff rankings.
As big as that would be for Conference USA as a whole, New Mexico State won’t have selflessness in mind.
In coach Jerry Kill’s first season last year, the Aggies made their first bowl appearance since 2017 and won seven games, including the Quick Lane Bowl against Bowling Green.
This season, NMSU has won 10 games for the first time since 1960 and is eyeing the program’s first conference championship since winning the Missouri Valley Conference title in 1978.
When the Flames met the Aggies in Lynchburg earlier this season, a big day for Liberty’s offense led the way in a two-score win. Will we see a closer result this time around, or will the Flames be too powerful once again?
New Mexico State vs Liberty Odds
Odds are courtesy of Bovada.
Spread
- New Mexico State +11 (-110)
- Liberty -11 (-110)
Over/Under
- Over 57 (-105)
- Under 57 (-115)
Moneyline
- New Mexico State +330
- Liberty -440
Can New Mexico State Slow Down the Nation’s Top Ground Game?
In the first meeting on September 9, New Mexico State led twice in the first half, but they couldn’t build from that start as Liberty went on to a 33-17 win at Williams Stadium.
In the win, the Flames racked up 526 total yards, including 250 rushing yards on 52 attempts.
It was one of the many prolific rushing performances for the Flames this season, as they have tallied 250+ yards seven times. Entering Championship Week, Liberty sits atop the FBS rankings in rushing, averaging 295.4 yards per game. Additionally, they rank second in both yards per attempt (5.9) and rushing touchdowns (34).
Last week, they ran for a season-high 441 yards and five touchdowns in a 42-28 win at UTEP. Salter completed only 4 of 11 passes for 22 yards, but he didn’t need to do much with his arm with the way the yards were piling up on the ground.
Salter (2,431 yards passing, 899 yards rushing, 40 total touchdowns) has completed at least 50% of his passes in every other game this season and is ninth in the FBS in QBR, and he was 15 of 25 for 276 yards and two scores against the Aggies in September.
So, we should a better showing through the air tomorrow night, just based on his body of work for the entire season.
Season Statistics for Liberty QB Kaidon Salter
- Passing: 142 of 241 (58.9%), 2431 yards (10.1 YPA), 29 TD, 5 INT
- Rushing: 141 attempts, 899 yards (6.4 YPA), 11 TD
Beating a team twice is not an easy task, but it might be asking a bit much for New Mexico State to try to do that by shutting down one of the nation’s best offenses in their home stadium. Yes, the Aggies have allowed 15.4 PPG during their eight-game win streak, but stopping Liberty at Liberty is not going to be an easy feat.
The best path to victory for the Aggies might to try to fight fire with fire.
New Mexico State can’t quite match Liberty in terms of numbers, but they are second in Conference USA and 12th nationally in rushing yards per game (205.8 YPG) and fourth nationally in rushing yards per attempt (5.8), behind only LSU, Liberty, and Oregon, which is some pretty darn good company.
NMSU has four players with 300+ rushing yards, led by quarterback Diego Pavia.
Pavia drew negative attention earlier this season when video surfaced of an unsavory preseason incident at archrival New Mexico’s indoor practice facility, but he is now drawing positive attention for his play in the Aggies’ win streak.
Season Statistics for New Mexico State QB Diego Pavia
- Passing: 199 of 325 (61.2%), 2727 yards (8.4 YPA), 23 TD, 8 INT
- Rushing: 153 attempts, 806 yards (5.3 YPA), 5 TD
In their stunning 31-10 win at Auburn two weeks ago, he threw three touchdown passes and showed off the skills that helped him be a state champion wrestler in high school.
New Mexico State vs Liberty Prediction and Best Bets
Prediction: Liberty to win
Best Bets: Liberty -11.5 (-110 at Bovada) & Liberty team total over 33.5 points (-130 at Bovada)
It would be unwise to count out the Aggies, who have had an outstanding season and could set a single-season school record for wins if they win the C-USA championship and their bowl game.
But Liberty has been too good this season, and I don’t see them letting up at this point.
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